So far, so good: Some observations on Mets ace Jacob deGrom's work since his return
Mets starting pitcher Jacob deGrom looks on from the dugout against the Colorado Rockies during the sixth inning of an MLB baseball game at Citi Field on Thursday, Aug. 25, 2022. Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke
Jacob deGrom is five starts deep in his return from more than a year on the sideline because of injury, and these past few weeks have been . . . pretty normal, actually.
Aside from extra rest before his most recent outing, ostensibly to accommodate other pitchers, deGrom’s routine has been, well, routine. He has been highly effective, including a 2.15 ERA with an absurd 23 strikeouts for every walk. He has pitched plenty of innings on an increasing pitch count. And most important for him and the Mets, he hasn’t taken that oh-so-familiar mid-inning walk off the mound with an athletic trainer.
“He’s the same guy,” pitching coach Jeremy Hefner said. “It’s like he didn’t miss a beat.”
Heading into deGrom’s game against the Dodgers on Wednesday, here are a few observations from his still relatively small body of work.
Two-pitch whiz
DeGrom has leaned heavily on just two pitches, which is highly unusual for a starter, never mind one as effective as he has been. He has thrown his slider a career-high 44% of the time — nearly one out of every two pitches — and his fastball 48% of the time.
In that sense, deGrom has been Edwin Diaz-like. Perhaps the best closer in baseball this season, Diaz relies on a fastball-slider combo (or a slider-fastball combo), which works for him because both pitches are nasty and he typically goes only one inning.
That deGrom has gotten by with a similar approach across six innings at a time speaks to how difficult those pitches are for hitters.
“There’s not too many guys in the game that can survive on two pitches,” Hefner said. “[Atlanta’s Spencer] Strider is probably the closest example to a guy that is currently throwing right now. Not really anyone else comes to mind. Because usually those guys only go three or four innings and they’re out of the game. It’s just a testament to who Jake is and the quality of his pitches and how consistent they are.”
Wanted: a changeup
Because he has been mostly a two-pitch pitcher, deGrom’s third pitch has been mostly missing. He has thrown changeups only 4.6% of the time — about half of what he did last year and less than a third of his norm the year before that.
Hefner attributed this to deGrom’s feel for the changeup lagging behind his feel for the fastball and slider. Plus, with his primary pitches being so effective, he hasn’t needed to broaden his repertoire often.
“Once the comfortability with the changeup comes, those will start to even back out, closer to what he’s been in the past,” Hefner said. “That’s more of a product of the fastball and slider being so good that he hasn’t had to rely on the changeup as much. But I don’t think that trend will be true moving forward. There’s definitely an emphasis on his part to get the changeup going and get the opposition engaged on that changeup.”
DeGrom’s times-through-the-lineup splits show why his third and even fourth pitch (a rarely used curveball) would be helpful.
The first time he has faced a given batter in a game this season, hitters are 4-for-45 (.089) with 26 strikeouts. The second time, 6-for-43 (.140) with 16 strikeouts. The third time, 4-for-13 (.308) with four strikeouts.
Still the need for speed
The most fascinating piece of deGrom’s past half-decade — the increasing velocity of all his pitches — has remained.
His fastball is about the same as last year, with an average of 99.3 mph (compared to 99.2). But his slider has seen another noticeable tick up, from 91.6 to 93.0 mph. And so has the changeup (91.4 to 92.9).
Put another way: deGrom’s off-speed pitches are about as fast as Chris Bassitt’s fastballs.
Unleash the beast
DeGrom said last week that he hopes to throw 100 pitches — at least — against the Dodgers. He hasn’t reached that total in a game since April 23, 2021 (a 15-strikeout shutout of the Nationals that required 109 pitches).
The Mets have been exceedingly careful and deliberate with deGrom all season, and Hefner indicated that will continue. But deGrom throwing 100 pitches — a normal thing for normal starters — is in play for as soon as Wednesday.
“He probably could’ve went 100 the last three or four times, but we need to make sure we have Jake,” Hefner said. “I would rather Jake not pitch four extra innings over the course of the year and limit some of the risks so that we have him for the whole postseason. Where if we continually red-line him every single time — that hasn’t worked. If we keep doing that, we’re insane.
“It’s more or less like, if he feels good and he’s commanding the ball and he doesn’t have stressful innings, it’s definitely within our thoughts to get him to 100. But that doesn’t necessarily mean we’re just going to run him out [for the sake of getting to 100].”
Tim Healey is the Mets beat writer for Newsday. Born on Long Island and raised in Connecticut, Tim has previously worked for the South Florida Sun Sentinel, the Boston Globe and MLB.com. He is also the author of “Hometown Hardball,” a book about minor league baseball in the northeast.
