Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez hits an RBI double against Atlanta in...

Mets catcher Francisco Alvarez hits an RBI double against Atlanta in the sixth inning of Game 2 of a doubleheader at Citi Field on Monday. Credit: Noah K. Murray

There’s no predicting baseball, but there is such a thing as considering the odds.

For instance, the odds are good that the Atlanta team that swooped in to steal the NL East from the Mets last season will give them just as much trouble this year. And there’s a pretty good chance that games like the two played at Citi Field on Monday will turn out to be an accurate reflection of the dogfight everyone expects for this division.

In other words: Atlanta isn’t going away. And despite some recent scuffles, the Mets aren’t, either.

The Mets fought back from deficits in Games 1 and 2 of the doubleheader, dropping the first game, 9-8, and winning the second, 5-3. They’ve won only two of the last eight games, but both were in comeback fashion, and they now look forward to a series in Detroit that should herald the returns of Max Scherzer (suspension) and Justin Verlander (teres major strain).

What’s more, Monday provided more positivity in the form of key hits from their promising rookies. Brett Baty went 2-for-5 with a home run in Game 1. Francisco Alvarez went 2-for-4 in Game 2 and had a two-run double in the sixth that gave the Mets the lead for good.

“They’re a good team and tough to beat,” said David Robertson, who got the two-inning save in Game 2, his sixth of the season. “We fought with them all day long and managed to pull out a win . . . It just shows that we don’t give up. We’re definitely not firing on all cylinders. We’re not playing our best baseball. We’re waiting for some guys to get back and some things to start going our way in between the lines. We haven’t stopped trying really hard and we scratched out a win and we’re hanging in.”

With opener Denyi Reyes on the mound for Game 1, the Mets faced a three-run deficit before taking a turn at the plate. Reyes, who lasted an inning plus two batters, gave up two of Atlanta’s four homers in the game, including Sean Murphy’s three-run blast in the first. Murphy hit another three-run homer in the seventh for a 9-5 lead.

 

The Mets got two back off Collin McHugh in the seventh. McHugh hit Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso to lead off the inning and allowed a single by Jeff McNeil to load the bases. Daniel Vogelbach then grounded to first baseman Matt Olson, who threw to second as Lindor scored. But Vaughn Grissom threw the ball away trying to get Vogelbach at first, chasing Alonso home to bring the Mets to within 9-7.

Pinch hitter Eduardo Escobar’s solo home run with two outs in the ninth got the Mets within one before A.J. Minter got Baty to line out.

The Mets opened the scoring in Game 2 on Vogelbach’s RBI double in the second and went up 2-0 when Baty doubled to lead off the fifth and scored on Starling Marte’s single.

But Tylor Megill stumbled the third time around the order. Chadwick Tromp hit a leadoff double in the sixth and Megill walked Olson and Murphy to load the bases for Eddie Rosario, who doubled to right. Tromp and Olson scored to tie it, and the throw home was just a fraction too late as Murphy slid under Alvarez’s tag to give Atlanta a 3-2 lead and end Megill’s evening.

Megill allowed those three runs and four hits with three walks and four strikeouts in 5 2⁄3 innings.

That, though, was where Alvarez came in. Charlie Morton walked Vogelbach and Mark Canha before getting lifted for Michael Tomkin, who promptly allowed a two-run double by Alvarez to make it 4-3. McNeil homered in the eighth for a 5-3 advantage.

Robertson allowed two hits in his two innings and struck out four, matching a career high.

“If you notice, a lot of times teams punch us early and a lot of times, our guys have a way of punching back,” Buck Showalter said. “We came close to breaking through in the first one, but it was a real upbeat clubhouse between games.”

And though Showalter is not one to look too far ahead, he did peek ahead on Monday. “They’re a good team,” he said of Atlanta. “We know they’re going to be there all year.”

There’s no predicting baseball, but that one is about as sure a bet as you can make.

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