NBA Finals Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat: 5 things to watch

It was not long ago that the debates centering around the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat were not about which team could make it to the NBA Finals, what matchups would matter and who would celebrate the next championship.

The Nuggets talk was mostly about Nikola Jokic and why he shouldn’t win another MVP award because he had never flourished in the postseason and won a title. The Heat chatter was wondering just what had gone wrong this season and why a well-coached, experienced and talented team had slogged through an underachieving regular season.

But here they are, in an unexpected NBA Finals beginning Thursday night in Denver. So without LeBron James or Golden State, Milwaukee or Boston here, what exactly will this Finals bring?

MVP

The debate over whether Jokic can succeed in the postseason can be put to bed now with Denver’s run to the Finals. So let’s not only admit that he could have been a three-time winner after a season that by most measures was the best of his career, but also agree  he is a leader of a team that has exceeded expectations and knocked off the players and teams some would argue are better than him.

Miami will not be the team to argue that. Denver beat Miami in both of their meetings this season, and Jokic posted triple-doubles in both games, including a 27-point, 12-rebound, 12-assist performance in which he converted 12 of 14 shots from the field. How do the Heat slow Jokic? That’s a hard question.

Jokic is not only the most skilled big man in the game, but he is a really big man. And Miami is one of the most undersized teams in the game. Their primary defender will be Bam Adebayo. But Jokic is listed, conservatively, at 6-11, 284 pounds. Adebayo is listed generously at 6-9, 255 pounds. That size advantage means someone has to help and there is no big man, maybe no player at any position, better at picking apart the opposing help defense. So how? That’s where the coach comes in.

The coaching battle

Erik Spoelstra deservedly got his recognition for being one of the best — if not the best — coaches in the NBA as he led Miami to the Finals. How exactly did the Heat, the eighth seed (really the seventh before losing in the first play-in tournament game) get past Milwaukee, the Knicks and Boston to get here with a team that includes nine undrafted players and missing one of their leading scorers in Tyler Herro?

You could point to the injury to Giannis Antetokounmpo in the opening round, but it’s not a coincidence that the Bucks fired their accomplished coach, Mike Budenholzer, after the series. Spoelstra had the Heat ready for every contingency, constantly a step ahead of rookie head coach Joe Mazzulla in Boston.

Spoelstra is second only to San Antonio’s Gregg Popovich in tenure, completing his 15th season as head coach in Miami. But Mike Malone is fourth on the list with only Steve Kerr between them, having endured 10 seasons in Denver. And Malone is a coaching lifer, too, son of a coach and part of the Jeff Van Gundy coaching tree — which came from the Pat Riley coaching tree. Malone will have his team just as prepared, will push his team to the last breath. This one will be decided on the court.

Can the Butler do it?

Jimmy Butler has been the best player in the postseason. Not the best scorer or the most explosive talent, just  simply the best player — the center of everything the Heat do, unselfishly raising the level of those around him.  In the two losses to Denver this season, he was just 13-for-31 shooting. The Nuggets can throw a number of defenders at him, likely putting the primary assignment in the hands of Aaron Gordon, but figure Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown and just about everyone will get a shot. When defenses have collapsed on Butler, he has made the right play — providing open shots for the likes of Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus and Duncan Robinson.

Time is on their side

While the Nuggets have been waiting on the Heat after disposing of the Lakers in four straight games, the NBA Finals schedule with two days off between every game except Games 3 and 4 (which has only one) will benefit the Heat. Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love have been inconsistent at times as they seem worn down by the every-other-day schedule of the earlier postseason rounds and might flourish with the extra day off. The time also means that Herro could make a return to the lineup after suffering a broken hand in the first game of the playoffs.

Murray’s time

Jamal Murray is healthy and appears to have fully recovered from the ACL injury that cost him the entire 2021-22 season, averaging 27.7 points per game in the postseason this year. He provides the complement Jokic needs offensively, a weapon who can score from anywhere and heat up if a defense focuses on Jokic.

PREDICTION

Well-rested, well-prepared and more loaded with talent, the Nuggets should finally end the unexpected ride for the Heat. Add in the Heat having to deal with the altitude in Denver, where the Nuggets are 8-0 in the postseason, and it's Nuggets in six games.

By Steve Popper

steve.popper@newsday.com@StevePopper

Steve Popper covers the Knicks for Newsday. He has spent nearly three decades covering the Knicks and the NBA, along with just about every sports team in the New York metropolitan area.