March Madness: Breaking down the NCAA men's bracket

Selection Sunday has come and gone, which means the 2023 NCAA Tournament bracket is set. Here’s a breakdown to help you fill out your bracket.

The 1 Seeds

Alabama

The first Alabama team to earn a No. 1 seed could double as the first Alabama team to reach the Final Four and cut down the nets. The Crimson Tide (29-5) grind down opponents defensively — they rank third in Kenpom’s adjusted defensive efficiency — and push the pace offensively. Relying on a deep mixture of guards and forwards, Nate Oats routinely employs a 10-man rotation, headlined by projected lottery pick Brandon Miller.

On paper, Alabama has the easiest path to the Final Four compared to the other 1 seeds.

Houston

Earning a No. 1 seed for the first time since 1983, the Cougars (31-3) have a chance to cut down the nets about 10 miles from campus at NRG Stadium. Kelvin Sampson’s gritty group spent seven weeks atop the AP Top 25 poll, and ranks first in Kenpom’s adjusted efficiency margin.

Star guard Marcus Sasser left Saturday’s AAC semifinal with a groin strain and did not play in Houston’s loss to Memphis in the conference championship on Sunday. The Cougars can survive the early rounds without his team-best 17.5 points per game, but could have a hard time scoring against better opponents later in the tournament if he remains out.

Kansas

No team has won consecutive national championships since Florida in 2008, but the Jayhawks (27-7) have as good a chance as anyone has in the last 15 years. Kansas won yet another Big 12 regular season title — Bill Self’s 17th time achieving the feat in 20 seasons at Kansas — – and earned four more Quad 1 wins (17) than anyone else in the country.

The Jayhawks drew a tough path to the Final Four. They could potentially face a talented Arkansas team in the Round of 32 and analytics darlings UConn or Saint Mary’s in the Sweet 16 before possibly meeting UCLA in the Elite Eight. As the West Regional’s top seed, the Jayhakws would play their regional in Las Vegas instead of Kansas City, had they been placed in the Midwest.

Purdue

For the first time under Matt Painter, Purdue has earned a No. 1 seed — an especially impressive feat considering the Boilermakers (29-5) were unranked in the preseason.

Zach Edey, a 7-4 center, emerged as National Player of the Year frontrunner early in the season and carried Purdue to a 13-0 start and No. 1 ranking. With Edey up front, Purdue is unsurprisingly one of the country’s best rebounding teams. It ranks seventh in Kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency. However, Purdue’s guards have struggled with full-court pressure, which makes a potential Round of 32 battle with an athletic Memphis team extremely enticing.

The Sleepers

Gonzaga

Mark Few’s Bulldogs were a No. 1 seed in four of the past five NCAA tourneys, making two runs to the championship game, so the No. 3-seeded Zags (28-5) enter the dance with relatively less hype. However, this team has the experience and high-octane offense to advance deep in the bracket — just ask national title contender Alabama, whose elite defense surrendered 100 points in a December loss to the Bulldogs in Birmingham.

UConn

Throughout the season’s first two months, UConn played like a frontrunner to win the national championship. The Huskies (25-8) won their first 14 games, including double-digit wins over Alabama, Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Oregon and Florida.

Then the wheels fell off. UConn lost six of their next eight, and suddenly seemed prone to missing the NCAA Tournament. Ultimately the Huskies corrected course and earned a No. 4 seed, lately looking like a legitimate threat once again.

The analytics love UConn — Kenpom ranks the Huskies fourth in adjusted efficiency margin, making them an intriguing value pick for a deep tournament run.

First Round Upset Watch

No. 12 Oral Roberts over No. 5 Duke

A first-round dose of Oral Roberts (30-4) will be a tough pill for Duke (26-8) to swallow. The Golden Eagles, who came within a bucket of the Elite Eight as a No. 15 seed two years ago, rank 56th in Kenpom’s adjusted efficiency margin thanks largely to an offense that leads the country in turnover percentage and ranks seventh in effective field-goal percentage. 2021 tournament sensation Max Abmas leads Oral Roberts once again with 22.2 points per game.

No. 13 Furman over No. 4 Virginia

This is a nightmare matchup for Virginia fans. The Paladins, in their first NCAA Tournament since 1980, take 46.4% of their shots from beyond the arc and convert at 34.4%. Even if the three-pointers aren’t falling, Furman can contend offensively thanks to a 59.1% two-point field-goal percentage, which ranks first nationally. In a game where Virginia will try limiting possessions as usual, Furman’s potent offense (No. 33 in adjusted offensive efficiency) can send the Cavaliers home early.

No. 13 Kent State over No. 4 Indiana

With Xavier Johnson sidelined, Indiana (22-11) lacks a true point guard and has stagnated offensively at times as a result. Kent State (28-6) applies defensive pressure, turning over opponents on 22.6% of their possessions (20th nationally) and chasing shooters off the three-point line. The Golden Flashes also have one of the best under-the-radar point guards in Sincere Carry.

Top Storylines

Duke’s Changing of the Guard

In case you forgot, Mike Krzyzewski retired last year. Jon Scheyer replaced Duke’s coaching legend, who won 1,202 games and five national championships as head coach from 1980 to 2022. The shoes to fill were obviously large, and the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class only heightened expectations.

The Blue Devils rarely looked dominant through a 17-8 start to the season, as the highly touted freshmen adjusted to the college game and junior point guard Jeremy Roach dealt with a toe injury. Those days seem like they’re in the distant past now. The Blue Devils (26-8) have not lost since Feb. 11, winning nine straight games and the ACC tournament championship where 7-foot freshman Kyle Filipowski dominated.

Last year, Hubert Davis replaced legendary UNC coach Roy Williams and led the No. 8-seeded Tar Heels to the championship game. Can Jon Scheyer one-up Duke’s rival and win the whole thing?

No Tar Heels

A year after reaching the NCAA championship, UNC officially became the first preseason No. 1 team to miss the tournament since the field expanded in 1985. The selection committee listed the Tar Heels (20-13) as the third team out.

Texas

Rodney Terry has done an admirable job as Texas’ interim head coach, following Chris Beard’s December 12 arrest on third-degree felony assault charges and subsequent suspension and firing. The former UTEP and Fresno State head coach stabilized a talented group that underachieved last season and led the Longhorns (26-8) to the Big 12 title. Has he already earned the job? A run deep into the tournament certainly would bolster his candidacy, and the No. 2-seeded Longhorns have a good chance to do it.

Players to Watch

Brandon Miller, Alabama

A projected top 5 pick in most mock drafts, Miller is the field’s best NBA prospect. The 6-9 point forward leads No. 1-seeded Alabama with 19.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game and shoots 40.7% from three. 

Drew Timme, Gonzaga

Mark Few has coached better NBA prospects, but Timme might be the most accomplished Bulldog ever. The 6-10 forward, who led the 2021 national runner-up in scoring and rebounding, recently set Gonzaga’s all-time points record. Another Final Four appearance would solidify Timme’s collegiate career as one of the nation’s best this century.

Zach Edey, Purdue

The unheralded recruit has evolved into the National Player of the Year frontrunner, helping the Boilermakers hold the AP Top 25’s No. 1 slot for seven weeks this season. The 7-4 center, a nightmare matchup for just about any team, is averaging 22.1 points and 12.8 rebounds per game.

Jalen Wilson, Kansas

A key piece on last year’s national champion, Wilson has taken his game to the next level. Wayne Semien and Frank Mason III are the only Jayhawks to have averaged at least 20 points per game under Bill Self. Wilson, a 6-8 forward and likely AP All-American First Teamer, is averaging 20.1 points per game.

Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana

Jackson-Davis, the son of former NBA All-Star Dale Davis, is the country’s best playmaking big man. The 6-9 senior does everything for former Knicks coach Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers, averaging 20.8 points, 10.9 rebounds, 4.1 assists and 2.7 blocks per game.

Final Four Picks

Texas over Gonzaga
Alabama over Marquette
Championship: Texas over Alabama