College football picks: After losses, A&M's Elko grateful to play Texas with shot at SEC title game
Texas A&M head coach Mike Elko reacts after a touchdown against Auburn during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024, in Auburn, Ala. Credit: AP/Butch Dill
Texas A&M bounced back from its season-opening loss to Notre Dame with seven straight wins that put it in prime position for a College Football Playoff bid entering November.
Back-to-back Southeastern Conference losses to South Carolina and Auburn put those hopes in peril but Texas A&M has one more shot with the return of the Lone Star Showdown between the 20th-ranked Aggies (No. 20 CFP) and No. 3 Texas (No. 3 CFP) in College Station on Saturday night.
“The football gods blessed us with another chance,” first-year A&M coach Mike Elko told reporters this week. “This game was always going to mean something. You guys have been asking me about it since the day I got hired. Now it means everything. So we have that opportunity to kind of right the last two wrongs in SEC play and go out with a bang and put ourselves in the SEC championship game.”
Awaiting the Texas-Texas A&M winner in Atlanta will be Georgia in a game with all kinds of CFP ramifications.
The picks, with Associated Press Top 25 rankings and lines from BetMGM Sportsbook:
Washington (plus 19 1/2) at No. 1 Oregon
Ducks already clinched spot in Big Ten championship game. Don't expect a letdown. Oregon goes for its first 12-0 regular season since 2010 and payback for a pair of three-point losses to the Huskies last year.
Pick: Oregon 35-17.
Texas coach Steve Sarkisian celebrates with his team after defeating Arkansas 20-10 in an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 16, 2024, in Fayetteville, Ark. Credit: AP/Michael Woods
Michigan (plus 21) at No. 2 Ohio State
This is the widest point spread for “The Game” since 1978, according to ESPN Stats and Info. Buckeyes can lock up Big Ten title game spot and a rematch with Oregon with a win and are still smarting from losing three straight to the Wolverines.
Pick: Ohio State 33-14.
No. 3 Texas (minus 5 1/2) at No. 20 Texas A&M
Winner goes to the SEC championship game to play Georgia. Longhorns should be in playoff even if they lose. Aggies are playing for their playoff lives.
Pick: Texas 28-21.
Texas A&M wide receiver Noah Thomas (3) tries to elude the tackle of Auburn cornerback Kayin Lee (4) during the second overtime of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 23, 2024, in Auburn, Ala. Credit: AP/Butch Dill
Maryland at No. 4 Penn State (minus 24 1/2)
Nittany Lions will be looking for style points so they can remain at least the second-highest ranked Big Ten team for the CFP. Terrapins are 1-7 in conference play, and they give up lots of points on the road.
Pick: Penn State 42-10.
No. 5 Notre Dame (minus 7 1/2) at Southern California
Irish are on the cusp of a CFP at-large bid, and on a nine-game win streak, eight of them lopsided. Trojans are 2-0 with Jayden Maiava as starting quarterback.
Pick: Notre Dame 31-17.
Georgia Tech (plus 19 1/2) at No. 6 Georgia
Yellow Jackets play a lot of close games, and they own a top-10 win over Miami. Georgia has won six straight in the series.
Pick: Georgia 38-21.
No. 7 Tennessee at Vanderbilt (plus 11)
Vanderbilt doesn't make many mistakes and only one of its five losses has been by more than a touchdown. RB Dylan Sampson is the difference in this one and keeps Vols' playoff hopes alive.
Pick: Tennessee 27-24.
No. 8 Miami (minus 10 1/2) at Syracuse
Miami's Cam Ward and Syracuse's Kyle McCord are the only quarterbacks passing for more than 340 yards per game. There should be points aplenty.
Pick: Miami 45-33.
California at No. 9 SMU (minus 13 1/2)
SMU already is in the ACC championship game. Mustangs QB Kevin Jennings will be challenged by a Cal defense that's tied for second nationally with 17 interceptions.
Pick: SMU 34-21.
Purdue at No. 10 Indiana (minus 28 1/2)
Hoosiers could unleash some pent-up frustration after Ohio State handed them their first loss. Purdue's average losing margin is 27.5 points per game, and that's after playing Northwestern and Michigan State close in November.
Pick: Indiana 52-10.
Oregon State at No. 11 Boise State (minus 19 1/2)
It isn't always pretty, especially lately, but Boise State just keeps winning. Chalk up another 100- or 200-yard game for Ashton Jeanty. Beavers give up 178.2 yards per game on the ground, 102nd in the nation.
Pick: Boise State 40-16.
No. 16 South Carolina at No. 12 Clemson (minus 2 1/2)
Both teams have their sights set on a playoff bid. Only one of them will after this game. Gamecocks have won five straight since a 3-3 start.
Pick: South Carolina 29-24.
Auburn (plus 11 1/2) at No. 12 Alabama
Alabama has won six straight Iron Bowl games in Tuscaloosa, the last four in blowouts. Crimson Tide QB Jalen Milroe is coming off his worst game in a 21-point loss at Oklahoma. Auburn is riding high after four-overtime win over Texas A&M.
Pick: Alabama 24-21.
No. 14 Arizona State (minus 9) at Arizona
The Sun Devils, coming off a three-win season and picked last in the Big 12, can make the conference championship game with a win. Arizona, coming off a 10-win season, have dropped six of seven.
Pick: Arizona State 42-24.
Mississippi State (plus 26 1/2) at No. 15 Mississippi
The two-win Bulldogs are trending toward their worst season since 2003 but the Egg Bowl tends to bring out their best. The Rebels' loss to Florida last week probably drove a stake into their playoff hopes.
Pick: Mississippi 41-20.
Kansas State (plus 2 1/2) at No. 17 Iowa State
Iowa State is going for its first 10-win regular season and likely a spot in the Big 12 title game. Wildcats' offense is in top form with Avery Johnson back to full health.
Pick: Kansas State 28-27.
Memphis (plus 14) at No. 18 Tulane
Tulane, among four FBS teams averaging better than 40 points per game, has outscored its last three opponents by a combined 121-9. Memphis, the preseason AAC favorite, hasn't been a double-digit underdog for a conference game in at least a decade.
Pick: Tulane 43-31.
Houston at No. 19 BYU (minus 12 1/2)
BYU has lost two straight after a 9-0 start. Houston coach Willie Fritz fired coordinator Kevin Barbay to get a jump on fixing the nation's lowest-scoring offense.
Pick: BYU 28-3.
Nevada (plus 17 1/2) at No. 21 UNLV
UNLV goes to the Mountain West championship game to face Boise State with a win. Nevada has played eight one-score games, most in the nation, and won two of them.
Pick: UNLV 26-17.
No. 22 Illinois (minus 7 1/2) vs. Northwestern
Illinois heads into the game at Wrigley Field looking for its first nine-win season since 2007. Northwestern scored 24 points off turnovers in its 45-43 win over the Illini last year. Illini have been turnover-free two straight games.
Pick: Illinois 33-24.
Oklahoma State at No. 23 Colorado (minus 16 1/2)
Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter make their final appearances at Folsom Field. The stage is set for them to amass monster numbers against the Big 12's worst defense.
Pick: Colorado 48-27.
Arkansas (plus 3 1/2) at No. 24 Missouri
Both teams are bowl-eligible and playing for the best possible destination. Razorbacks are 0-6 all-time in Columbia.
Pick: Missouri 24-21.
UTSA at No. 25 Army (minus 7)
UTSA has the top rushing defense in the AAC, but the Roadrunners haven't faced a ground game like Army's. The Black Knights haven't been held under 200 yards rushing.
Pick: Army 34-24.
AP predictions scorecard
Last week: Straight-up — 12-6; Against spread — 8-10.
Season: Straight-up — 192-53; Against spread — 122-122.
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