The 12-team College Football Playoff format is coming, but will it be in 2023 or 2026?
Impetus for a revamped playoff format in college football seems to be recent dominance by Alabama, here with head coach Nick Saban after winning the most recent national title on Jan. 11, 2021 in Miami Gardens. Clemson and Ohio State have also been frequent participants in the final four in recent years. Credit: Getty Images/Michael Reaves
There is no mystery about the consensus preseason college football rankings that all have the same four teams at the top — Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma in some order. Over the seven-season history of the four-team College Football Playoff to decide the national championship, those four schools have occupied 20 of a possible 28 playoff berths.
It’s a small, insular club.
But in June, the CFP announced plans for a feasibility study into a 12-team playoff format that promises to throw the doors open to a wider variety of schools, including those from non-Power 5 conferences.
For instance, this season, there are several intriguing teams in the various top 10 rankings that face a steep uphill climb to qualify under the current CFP format. Iowa State has outstanding veteran quarterback Brock Purdy and returning national rushing leader Breece Hall, but the Cyclones face Oklahoma on the road in Big 12 conference play.
North Carolina has one of the top quarterbacks in the country in Sam Howell and a favorable ACC schedule, but the Tar Heels likely still must get past Clemson in the conference title game.
Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell has built a high-powered program that returns quarterback Desmond Ridder and a star-studded defense, but the Bearcats play in the AAC, a non-Power 5 Conference, and have a relatively modest schedule except for their visit to Notre Dame.
The CFP was halfway through its broadcast contract with ESPN when its board of university presidents and board of conference commissioners plus Notre Dame athletic director Jack Swarbrick Jr. decided to examine the current format last year, but the global COVID-19 pandemic delayed those plans. Discussion resumed in March 2021 and led to the feasibility study announced in June.
"The theme was planted that they liked 12 because of more participation," CFP executive director Bill Hancock said in a recent Newsday interview. "They talked about everything from going back to the old bowl system all the way up to 16. But 12 emerged pretty early as their favorite … There’s a long way to go on this. We’re in the middle of the feasibility study."
Under the 12-team format, the field would include the six highest-ranked conference champions and then the next six schools ranked highest by the selection committee. No conference is guaranteed a bid, and since the top six conference champions get in, that assures that at least one non-Power 5 school will make it.
The top four teams get a first-round bye. The four first-round games will be played on campus at the highest-seeded schools, and the CFP will designate six major bowl games to host the quarterfinals and semifinals.
Hancock downplayed the dominance by Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma as the impetus for change, although he understands the logic.
"That was a tiny part of the rationale," Hancock said. "We all know college football goes in cycles.
"I think it’s as much coincidental as anything that the Alabama-Clemson time at the top of the cycle has coincided with the CFP. It really was more about participation. That really was the driving factor for the working group and the management committee as they move forward."
Hancock previously said the earliest a new format can be instituted is following the 2023 season, but since the current CFP contract ends with the 2025 season, it’s possible the new format might wait until the 2026 season. There are a lot of moving parts to work out, including potential TV scheduling conflicts with the Army-Navy game and with the NFL, which plays Saturday games in December.
But the upside is tremendous.
The CFP reportedly receives $500 million per year under the current contract that is distributed to the various conferences, independents and even some FCS conferences. Some industry analysts have speculated that revenue could double or even triple for a 12-team format. There has been discussion of a plan to provide student-athletes with long-term insurance policies as a means of sharing revenue.
One concern is the possibility that teams that don’t get a first-round bye would play four extra games if they made a Cinderella run to the title game. But that is unlikely.
"We don’t believe teams in the tournament will be able to play bowl games because of the schedule," Hancock said, excluding the teams that reach the quarterfinals and semifinals. "So the tournament becomes their bowl game. But there is the possibility that teams will play four more games.
"Somebody said, ‘If those teams advance to the championship game, they’re going to be delighted to play those additional games.’ I think that was spot-on. But additional games is a factor that I know will be raised as part of the feasibility study."
Still, only the final eight teams in a 12-team format have a chance to play multiple games after their conference championships. It’s a tradeoff for the benefits of vastly increased exposure and revenue for college football in the future.
Greg Logan has worked for Newsday since 1982 covering a wide array of sports and events, currently including the Brooklyn Nets beat.
