Angels making a playoff run with Shohei Ohtani might be best way to re-sign him
Angels designated hitter Shohei Ohtani watches a foul ball during the third inning of a game against the Blue Jays on Friday in Toronto. Credit: AP/Nathan Denette
The Angels’ decision to keep Shohei Ohtani hardly was a surprise. Few (if any) in the industry actually believed owner Arte Moreno would pull the trigger on such a historic deal. Why be this generation’s Harry Frazee?
Frazee was the Red Sox owner who sold Babe Ruth to the Yankees in December 1919 for $100,000, which in today’s dollars amounts to roughly $1.8 million.
Ruth became a legend in the Bronx, not to mention a mythical figure for baseball itself. And after winning the World Series in 1918, the Red Sox didn’t do it again until 2004, a championship drought bitterly known throughout New England as “The Curse of the Bambino.”
More than a century later, no player has come closer to being the next Ruth than Ohtani — or in his case, surpassing him as the sport’s greatest star. Aside from the 1919 season (and to a lesser extent the 1918 season), Ruth was not the two-way superstar Ohtani has become. How does anyone calculate the value of such a player?
While we’ve already begun to speculate on what Ohtani could command in free agency this offseason, with bidding likely to begin at $500 million, attaching a dollar value to his near-limitless talents actually is the easy part.
The market will determine Ohtani’s price tag in the offseason. But to try to do it on the fly in the days leading up to Tuesday’s trade deadline? That’s a nightmare for both the owner and general manager, because from a baseball, marketing and entertainment perspective, whatever the potential return, it would never be enough to justify willfully shipping away the game’s most coveted asset.
Why make a trade that you instantly lose the second you hang up the phone?
Other influential factors further helped the Angels rationalize their position on Ohtani, primarily staying in the hunt as they try to make their first playoff appearance since 2014, when they got swept by the Royals in the Division Series. Through Friday, the Angels were four games out of the third wild-card spot, with three teams ahead of them.
“We’re going to roll the dice and see what happens,” general manager Perry Minasian told reporters Thursday in Detroit.
Earlier this month, at the All-Star Game in Seattle, I asked Ohtani specifically if winning would be a priority in picking where he plays next season. He didn’t hesitate, answering in his strongest language to date.
“Those feelings get stronger year by year,” he said through his interpreter. “It [stinks] to lose. I want to win.”
Babe Ruth, pitching circa 1916. Credit: AP
Holding on to Ohtani helps the Angels twofold in that respect. First off, there is no playoff chase in Anaheim without Ohtani, who seemed to give a loud-and-clear endorsement of the Minasian/Moreno decision by leading the Angels to a doubleheader sweep of the Tigers.
Ohtani pitched a one-hit shutout in the opener, the first complete game of his MLB career, then hit a pair of homers in the second to give him 38, tops in the majors, before leaving with cramping in his back. After a third homer in a row Friday night, he left that game with cramps in both calves but was back in the lineup Saturday.
Carrying an entire franchise must get tiring on occasion. Remember, three-time MVP Mike Trout remains on the shelf with a fractured hamate bone. And that taxing burden for Ohtani makes what he’s doing even more amazing.
“From the beginning, my plan was to finish strong this season with the Angels,” Ohtani said Thursday. “I don’t think things are really going to change mentally. But all the people talking about the trades, that’s going to be all gone. So I feel like I’m just focused on taking this team to the playoffs.”
The immediate goal is the postseason. But in the process, the Angels are putting together a not-so-subtle recruiting effort they hope can help retain Ohtani in the offseason. Minasian swung a deal with the White Sox this past week that brought in starter Lucas Giolito and reliever Reynaldo Lopez, yet another indication the Angels are serious about October and keeping Ohtani happy.
Angels pitcher Shohei Ohtani throws against the Tigers in the fourth inning during the first game of a doubleheader Thursday in Detroit. Credit: AP/Paul Sancya
“I think this is the first time in my six years that we’re buyers,” Ohtani said.
Whether or not the Angels can successfully battle the Yankees, Red Sox, Astros and Blue Jays and claim a wild card remains to be seen. But they’ve definitely got the attention of Ohtani, who’s all but guaranteed to win his second MVP after losing out to Aaron Judge last year. Through Friday, he was leading MLB with a 1.077 OPS and on a pace (39 homers, 104 Angels games) that could give him a shot at breaking Judge’s AL-record 62 homers. Ohtani also is 9-5 with a 3.43 ERA and an 11.6 K/9 rate in 20 starts.
“We try not to take for granted what we have in him,” manager Phil Nevin said. “Hate to say that you expect greatness every day, but it’s what we get. It’s awesome to watch. Him performing at this level, when there is so much focus on one person, only the mentally strong are able to do that, and that’s what impresses me most about him.”
In all likelihood, trading Ohtani would have effectively killed the Angels’ chances of trying to re-sign him after the season. But now that he sounds happy to be sticking in Anaheim — and pleased with Minasian’s efforts to improve the team — there is a belief that the Angels could establish themselves as a favorite on his free-agent list.
Ohtani showed an obvious preference for the West Coast when he first came over from Japan, and he hasn’t given any clues since then that he’d be open to other regions of the country.
Obviously, any suitors for Ohtani will need the financial resources to give him a record contract, both in total value and average annual value. Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander set the current AAV mark at $43.3 million, with Trout owning the largest overall at $426.5 million (for 12 years).
As for the local teams, Ohtani already has spurned the Yankees, who were perhaps his most aggressive suitor six years ago, so it seems unlikely that he’d consider them this time around — or that Hal Steinbrenner would make that kind of financial commitment with a trio of $300 million players already on the roster.
The Mets’ Steve Cohen won’t be fazed by the price, and he’ll be looking for a way to cure the hangover of this season’s crushing $377 million disappointment. But if it comes down to geography, the Mets will be out of luck. With plenty of deep-pocketed competition in the Dodgers and Giants, Cohen can’t simply outspend to make up for that.
Also, with Kodai Senga establishing himself as an ace-caliber member of the Mets’ rotation, Ohtani is likely to have an aversion to stepping on his fellow Japanese star, something that often factors into these decisions, according to people familiar with the situation. Senga jokingly talked about recruiting Ohtani while the two were at the All-Star Game, and they were spotted having conversations, though neither would disclose what they talked about.
Ohtani took all the speculation with a smile during those hectic few days in Seattle, and suggested not to believe everything you read about his intentions. But at least now we know he’ll be finishing the season in an Angels uniform, and how far they make it could go a long way toward keeping him in Anaheim for the longer term.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
