Balls and strikes could be in robo-umps' domain as soon as next year
A radar device, top, a part of the Automated Ball-Strike System, is seen during a game between the Long Island Ducks and the New Britain Bees at Bethpage Ballpark on July 25, 2019. Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke
A week ago Saturday, during All-Star Weekend in Seattle, everyone watching the Futures Game at T-Mobile Park got a glimpse of, well, the future.
We’re not talking about the high-profile prospects, either. This involved the next big rule change on tap for Major League Baseball, perhaps one almost as revolutionary as this year’s pitch clock, which has been an extraordinary success.
It was the automated ball-strike system, or ABS for short. Deploying the sport’s latest technological breakthrough on its biggest stage to date was a not-so-subtle hint that robo-umps are on MLB’s doorstep, with the real possibility of a 2024 rollout.
Two versions of the ABS already are being used at all 30 Triple-A ballparks. Because schedules at that minor-league level involve six-game series, the first three rely on a fully automated strike zone, with balls and strikes determined by the same Hawk-Eye system utilized at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
The back end of those series, however, switch to a challenge format, also patrolled by the Hawk-Eye tech but with umpires operating in traditional fashion, calling balls and strikes. The difference is that players have the ability to challenge those calls upon review, and that was the method on display on July 8 at T-Mobile Park.
The Futures Game was my first opportunity to see the ABS challenge format in person, and I have to admit, it did add an entertaining dimension to the game that I wasn’t expecting to endorse. Over the years, I’ve become disenchanted with video review protocols. Not just with baseball, but every sport.
While the fundamental principle obviously makes sense — getting the call right — it’s been distorted by the super slo-mo, frame-by-frame analysis that can blur what it’s supposed to clarify. Making matters worse, the delays can stretch to seemingly interminable lengths, turning suspense into a yawn-inducing slog, often without a satisfying verdict, one way or the other.
But the ABS challenge succeeds in ways in which the video review falls short. First off, there is an indisputable conclusion. Unlike a video breakdown, which relies on the human eye to identify a glove tag or foot touching a base, the ABS is digital tech — either the pitch is inside the strike zone box or it isn’t. Also, the result is nearly instantaneous. Once the pitcher, catcher or batter asks for a challenge, the umpire signals the ABS crew and the computer-generated Hawk-Eye animation shows the baseball coming toward the strike-zone box before displaying where it finally lands (think of tracking an at-bat on MLB.com’s Gameday).
It actually works quite well, providing a resolution in a very efficient manner. But the proof could be found in the reaction of the T-Mobile Park crowd, which fell into a silent hush, eyes locked on the videoboard, then cheered with the verdict. Commissioner Rob Manfred was on hand, sitting in a ballpark suite, to gauge that feedback. Consider it the strongest evidence yet that MLB would be willing to green-light the ABS for the 2024 season.
“I was paying attention to the fans and the people’s reaction to it was really positive,” Manfred said last week at a meeting with the Baseball Writers’ Association of America. “Obviously, fan-friendly, we’re sort of big on that idea.”
Manfred went on to say that minor-league personnel and players have been more “comfortable” with the ABS challenge format rather than turning over full control of balls and strikes to the Hawk-Eye tech (with umpires wearing earpieces to hear the calls before making the hand/voice signal themselves). The commissioner cited the reasons for that as obvious. Left unsaid: The ABS challenge is just a far less radical change for the game, making it a more palatable adjustment.
When pressed on a decision for 2024, however, Manfred deferred to the joint committee that has jurisdiction over the rules. He also mentioned that baseball already has dealt with plenty of changes for this season — the pitch clock, the ban on defensive shifts and bigger bases. But the commissioner made his preference clear.
“I think if we had to make a decision today — which we don’t have to — there would be more support for at least beginning with the challenge system,” Manfred said. “Not making the judgment that we wouldn’t go all the way [to the full ABS], but if we were going to make a decision today, that would be the league’s position.”
There are a few reasons why MLB ultimately would like to pry the strike zone away from the umpires and turn it over to the ABS instead. Not only does it remove the subjectivity, but MLB wants to experiment with the zone (i.e., make it more hitter-friendly, to cut down on a problematic strikeout rate that has been the sport’s bogeyman for much of the past decade). The impact of that already is being felt at Triple-A, where even some of the most highly regarded young pitchers are finding they need an adjustment period.
“It’s different,” said the Mets’ Mike Vasil, the team’s eighth-rated prospect and a former eighth-round pick in the 2021 draft. “There’s no denying that the top of the zone kind of does seem gone. That’s one of the things I do and I really trained in the offseason to do that, throw strikes at the top. That’s one of the ways to get ahead [in the count].
“But at the same time, it’s almost like a good challenge. With better hitters, if you’re only throwing fastballs up, they’re going to adjust and they’re going to look up, so now it’s how am I going to freeze hitters down? So I think it’s more of a competitive thing for myself. Can I move and command my heat? Can I throw it where I want in the zone? That’s what you see the best of the best do.”
Pretty soon, pitchers at the major-league level are going to find themselves dealing with a similar challenge. And if last weekend’s Futures Game was any indication, next year could be a not-too-distant reality.
All-Star leftovers
With the new rules being an unqualified success in the first half, Manfred and MLB enjoyed what felt like a victory lap during the All-Star festivities. But to score more of those “fan-friendly” points he keeps speaking about, MLB needs to persuade Nike to let players wear their own team uniforms in the All-Star Game rather than those specially designed abominations for the event.
Use those for batting practice, but if baseball really wants its stars to shine, they’re much easier to recognize in their usual uniforms, particularly with so many in-game substitutions. Plus, it was always one of the more charming aspects of the All-Star Game for fans, who naturally connect their favorite players to their favorite teams. Just use the host city’s official All-Star logo for a sleeve patch if Nike wants to market special uniforms for the event.
The Mets’ Kodai Senga wore a rather conservative gray suit and white T-shirt to walk down the red carpet for the All-Star Game. But his teammates tried to convince the rookie to go another route, telling him that it was customary for a Met to go shirtless under the suit like Starling Marte did last year at the event.
“Jeff McNeil was saying that if you’re a Mets player and get selected to the All-Star team, you have to do that fashion style,” Senga said through his interpreter. “But Jeff was like, I think Pete [Alonso] has got it down, so you’re good this time. Obviously, neither of us did it.”
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
