Cubs' Kyle Tucker a hot commodity whose price tag just went up

After falling short for Juan Soto, will the Yankees have a more appealing Plan B upgrade on the free-agent market come next offseason? That’s going to depend on a number of factors between now and then. But judging by Kyle Tucker’s fast start with the Cubs, the three-time All-Star rightfielder could end up checking even more boxes than Soto, the “generational talent” who now calls Flushing home after signing a record 15-year, $765 million deal in December.

No one was happier than Tucker to see Soto blow away Shohei Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million stunner. Tucker turned 28 in January, so he’s less than two years older than Soto — more like 21 months — and had built up some serious free-agent momentum, which is what led to the Astros trading him to the North Side for Isaac Paredes, Hayden Wesneski and highly touted prospect Cam Smith (now Tucker’s replacement in rightfield in Houston after converting from third base).

In the four seasons leading up to that swap, the lefty-swinging Tucker batted .280 with a 146 OPS-plus as compared with Soto’s .279 and 164, respectively. The big separator between the two is Soto’s otherworldly on-base percentage (.423); Tucker (.362 OBP) made up ground with a slightly better .527 slugging percentage (Soto’s is .520). After three straight years of nearly 30-homer production, Tucker was on pace for a career-best total in that category last season before injuries limited him to 23 in 78 games.

Here’s where it gets even more interesting. Perhaps smelling that big payday, Tucker was crushing it through his first 15 games with the Cubs, hitting .322 with five homers, 16 RBIs and an 1.130 OPS, earning him a 1.2 f-WAR that (entering Saturday) was tied with Aaron Judge for second in the majors (Corbin Carroll was tops at 1.3). Not only that, but Tucker had the added bonus of seeing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agree to a 14-year, $500 million extension with the Blue Jays this past week, taking another big bat off next offseason’s free-agent market while establishing a lucrative price point for himself.

“I’m sure he loves playing in Toronto,” Tucker told The Associated Press in the wake of the Guerrero news. “It’s great for him. I mean, everyone’s a little different. Right now, I’m here to play this year. I’m excited to get out again and play [that night], just kind of see where everything goes after that.”

It’s early, but Tucker currently is en route to a Soto 2024 season, the one that ended with a third-place MVP finish and unprecedented riches. But there are a few other elements at play, too.

Tucker, who finished fifth in the AL MVP voting in 2023, has a Gold Glove on his resume — despite his surprising traction on last year’s Gold Glove ballot, Soto is merely an adequate rightfielder — and also is a speed threat with back-to-back seasons of 25 and 30 stolen bases in 2022 and ’23 (Soto’s max is 12, done twice, first in 2019 and again in ’23).

Tucker hasn’t matched Soto’s freakish on-base ability, but for the suitors who missed out last offseason, he’s a pretty solid substitute — presumably at a more affordable price. Just how much cheaper remains to be seen, however, considering Tucker’s performance to date. And who’s going to be willing to pay it?

The Yankees explored a Tucker trade in the offseason after Soto spurned their $760 million offer, but they moved quickly to spend the cash set aside for him and moved Aaron Judge back to right, the preferred long-term spot for the captain.

The flurry of deals kept the Yankees in the $308 million neighborhood, real estate that owner Hal Steinbrenner isn’t crazy about living in, and they already have a trio of $300 million players on the payroll in Judge ($360M), Giancarlo Stanton ($325M) and Gerrit Cole ($324M). With $200 million in salaries committed for 2026, however, Tucker’s price tag will have a bearing on what Steinbrenner wants to spend, especially with labor strife and a lockout looming for 2026.

Tucker, who’s making only $16.5 million this season, is shaping up to be the best bargain in the sport. But looking at the current comps at the position, he’s going to at least double his salary next year, with Soto’s AAV at the top of the market at $51 million, followed by Judge ($40M), Mike Trout ($35.5M) and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($24.3M). By those numbers, Tucker should be headed north of $400 million if he stays on his current trajectory, and some have projected more than $500 million, though he’ll be 29 next January.

The Blue Jays were another team in the hunt for Soto last offseason, along with Ohtani the previous year, but they finally found someone to take their money in Guerrero — a homegrown talent and native Canadian — with that $500 million extension.

Much like the Mets attaching extra value to Soto as part of Steve Cohen’s big-money efforts to rebrand the franchise, the Blue Jays simply had to retain Guerrero at almost any cost, which became even more evident when they gave him a staggering $350 million signing bonus, according to the Athletic.

The Cubs could be feeling a similar pressure. Tucker didn’t grow up a franchise cornerstone on the North Side, as Guerrero has in Toronto, but the Cubs are under increasing scrutiny to spend more on their roster. Their $216 million payroll ranks 12th in the majors — a bad look for a big-revenue team that has won one playoff game (in three postseason appearances) since their World Series title in 2016.

The heat got turned up during the opening week when BrooksGate, an analytical/stat site on X, published a chart illustrating 2024 team revenues in relation to their payroll, based on information from Forbes and Spotrac. For example, the Mets ranked first on the list, pulling in $444 million in 2024 but spending $400 million on player salaries and luxury tax, meaning 90% of that revenue was invested in the payroll. The Dodgers were second at 73.0% ($752M vs. $549M) and the Yankees ranked 11th at 49.7% ($728M vs. $362M).

And the Cubs? They were all the way down at 26th, sandwiched between the Guardians and Pirates, investing only 36.4% of their $584 million revenues in the $213 million payroll. Given the rapid buildup around Wrigley Field, a ballpark village that includes a gambling sportsbook, the revenue-stream flow is only getting richer around a cherished MLB landmark that ranked sixth in attendance last season.

So the Cubs seem to have the money for Tucker, and certainly the motivation. Given that they’re situated in the perennially weak NL Central, the playoffs should be a layup these days for a financial powerhouse like Chicago, and the Cubs’ nine wins through Friday were the most in the division (but still a few percentage points behind the first-place Brewers).

There have been rumblings about potential in-season extension talk for Tucker on the North Side, similar to the Toronto whispers that grew louder for Guerrero after Opening Day, but the Cubs will need to come up with a huge number to stave off the rightfielder’s first shot at free agency.

Never a question for Q

The Mets showed little appetite to run it back entirely with last year’s surprising rotation, choosing to re-sign only Sean Manaea on a three-year, $75 million deal. They let Luis Severino walk to the A’s (three years, $67 million) and skipped a redo with Jose Quintana, 36, who lingered on the free-agent market until March 5, when he inked a bargain one-year, $4.25 million deal with the Brewers.

Severino said Friday before the Mets’ series opener in West Sacramento that he would’ve taken less money to stay in Flushing, but there was really no interest. As for Quintana, he seemed like a perfect emergency fit once Manaea (oblique strain) and Frankie Montas (lat strain) went down with injuries in late February — especially coming off his solid 31-start season (3.75 ERA) — but the Mets believed they had plenty of depth to cover for what was believed to be relatively short-term holes in their rotation.

Turns out, Manaea’s original late April return now could be bleeding into late May or June. Even with Montas still on schedule, that puts him back around roughly the same time. And Quintana? All he did was shut out the Diamondbacks for seven innings Friday in his Brewers debut after tuning up against Rookie League teenagers for his extended spring training. Quintana allowed only four singles, and thanks to a pair of double plays, faced only one batter over the minimum in his walk-free, two-strikeout, 80-pitch performance.

In addition, Quintana became only the 24th pitcher to beat the current 30 teams and only the fifth still active, joining Cole, Charlie Morton, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander.

“Dreams come true,” Quintana, now in his 14th season, told MLB.com, “and I want to keep going.”

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.