Brandon Nimmo isn't thinking about stealing more bases

PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla. — Brandon Nimmo doesn’t really plan on being the base-stealer everyone thinks he should be.

I didn’t know that when I approached him Tuesday to talk about the subject. Nimmo is the fastest Met, with a sprint speed of 28.7 feet/second (according to Statcast), and this season’s rule changes figure to be an advantage in that department.

The enlarged bases will be six inches closer, and the pitch clock also should favor more thefts — not only with the visible timer providing a countdown, but by limiting the number of pickoff throws at two before an out must be recorded on the attempt (or a balk called).

The combination of these factors, going by my own non-analytical assumptions, should have made it a no-brainer. Nimmo had three stolen bases in 151 games last season — the same total as James McCann — a number that he claimed, in part, was due to putting the emphasis on his health (it was a free-agent year, too, after all) in order to keep him in the lineup as much as possible.

So it stood to reason that Nimmo, the proud owner of a new eight-year, $162 million contract, would be able to capitalize on this season’s base stealer-friendly climate to become an even more dangerous Met to opposing teams. But that’s not necessarily the case. Or, put another way, Nimmo isn’t prioritizing it this spring.

Rather than worry about transforming himself into a player he hasn’t been over his seven-year career, Nimmo is going to concentrate on being effective at what he does do — play a superb centerfield, reach base at a higher percentage than nearly everyone — to give the Mets the greatest chance of winning that night.

“If I’m doing those two things well, we’re going to do well,” Nimmo said. “If I’m out there every day, we’re going to be in a great place. Because I’m already a good baserunner, maybe just not the 'base stealer' [Nimmo put that term in air quotes]. I can take first to third on you a lot. The infield can even be in and I can still score from third base. There are areas that we can take advantage of that are not just stealing a bag. That’s kind of the way I looked at it and prioritized it.

“We’ll look at the new rules and how all that stuff affects it. If making your weaknesses better impacts your strengths, then it might not be worth it. You need to try and keep your strengths while bringing up your weaknesses some. That’s the thought process here. Because the player that I am is what helped us win 101 games last year. You try to get better, but you also do risk-reward management throughout the season.”

And, since this is 2023, Nimmo isn’t citing some random philosophical approach. He’s got the data to back it up. Staying healthy isn’t just about watching your diet or stretching more. Nimmo’s nightly efforts — like every Met — are analyzed at the granular level, and he had those numbers at the ready.

According to Nimmo, from a workload perspective, his exertion level was 1 1/2 times the next teammate on the list and double that of the infielders. That’s easy to believe watching the high-motor Nimmo on a regular basis, and helps explain why he tries to conserve some energy in other areas.

“Not that one more 90% effort is going to kill you,” Nimmo said. “But you’re already at such a high level, there’s only so many bullets. You have so many per night and you have to keep doing it again tomorrow. You want to take your chances — that night’s game is the most important game — but you always have to play with a little of a mindset of playing smarter, not harder.”

The Mets also don’t sound convinced that stealing bases, at least until they chart the trending of the new rules, is important to how they win games. They ranked 23rd in the majors last season with 62 — the Rangers (128) were No. 1 — and Starling Marte led the way with 18. Nimmo again was armed with the pertinent info. He’s thought about this. A lot.

“When it makes sense, we’re going to try and take advantage of it,” Nimmo said. “Some of the numbers I’ve been told, at an 80% [success] rate or above, you’re helping the team. Below that, you’re hurting it. So it’s not just like, can he go get a bag eight out of 16 times. That’s not good enough.”

And to this point in his career, Nimmo realizes he’s been nowhere near that level. He’s stolen a total of 23 bases over seven seasons (608 games) and been caught 14 times (a success rate of 62.2%). These next six weeks wouldn’t appear to be enough time to turn him into Rickey Henderson, even if Nimmo — or the Mets — believed that was the optimal thing to do. Which they don’t.

“He’s really good at hard things,” Buck Showalter said. “But it’s not a point of emphasis for us, where we want you to change everything and start doing this.”

The Mets made a very expensive, long-term investment in Nimmo to be the player he’s always been. He’s good at that. No need to overthink it now.

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.