David Stearns won't sugarcoat Mets' conservative approach

 PORT ST. LUCIE, Fla.

Say what you want about David Stearns’ small-market resume, building contenders out there in America’s Dairyland. But give the new president of baseball operations credit for this much as the Mets kick off their lowest-wattage spring training under Steve Cohen’s ownership.

Stearns isn’t sugarcoating the first season of his mission to establish a “championship-caliber organization” in Flushing.

For the sake of the ticket-buying customers, he could have dabbled in some hyperbolic conversation Monday about October crapshoots and long-shot World Series aspirations.

But that’s not where he is right now, in mid-February with players trickling into Clover Park, and neither is the franchise, even though Cohen still is on the hook for the sport’s highest payroll at a projected $329 million.

While he was savvy enough to avoid even brushing up against radioactive buzzwords such as “rebuilding” or “rebooting” — this roster is too talented for either bucket — he did have his own terminology for what’s going on with the Mets in Year One of the Stearns Era.

The gist of it has to do with the team’s “organizational cycle,” and for anyone who’s been paying attention to the Mets’ moves this winter, or even last year’s trade deadline, the strategy has been an abrupt change of course from the previous three offseasons under Cohen’s regime.

While the Mets have spent roughly $104 million — mostly on desperately needed pitching help — they’ve done so on the margins rather than taking big swings in free agency, which some have blamed on Stearns’ Milwaukee mindset.

So I asked Stearns about this year’s approach. With obvious upgrades for Mets-specific holes still available in free agency — Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, J.D. Martinez, Jorge Soler — why not just whip out Cohen’s checkbook, as was the case in years past? Has the ongoing evaluation process of his in-house options been playing a big factor in resisting up to now?

“There are a couple things,” Stearns said. “First, I think where we are in our organizational cycle, frankly, regardless of whether this is my first year or 10th year, it’s important for us to learn about some of these younger players. When you have players who have pretty consistently performed at the Triple-A level, at some point, you have to be willing to give them opportunities at the major-league level, understanding it may not go perfectly.”

Stearns acknowledged the risks involved in that plan. But when you’re in the first season of a five-year contract, you have the luxury of thinking more long-term. Also, with regard to the top-shelf free-agent arms, Stearns stressed the need for flexibility going forward — i.e., not getting handcuffed by bloated deals that you’re not crazy about in the first place. He referred to that vision as “sustainable competitiveness” that then will allow the Mets to take “big shots in the free-agent market when appropriate.”

Judging by that explanation, Stearns apparently doesn’t see right now as the “appropriate” time, but he did leave the door open a crack should the prices become too tempting to refuse.

Based on where the Mets were the previous three Februarys, after the trade for Francisco Lindor and the signings of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, this can be very difficult to stomach for the loyal citizens of Metsville.

But during this sobering period of glitzy free-agent withdrawal, Stearns is giving it to you straight. And we’re not talking about going into playoff hibernation here. Or tanking the way the Astros and Orioles did to gradually become model franchises. Cohen started a rebuild of sorts on the fly last July in buying up top prospects in the Scherzer/ Verlander trades, and now Stearns is deploying Phase Two of that blueprint while keeping his eyes on a realistic October push.

But don’t take my word for it. The recently released PECOTA projections have the Mets taking the NL’s third wild-card spot with 84 wins.

It’s safe to say that after restocking the rotation with his fingers crossed, Stearns would sign for that on the spot. His tone on Monday gave off a sensible “underpromise, overdeliver” vibe, and how he proceeds in the months ahead will be determined by the current roster’s performance.

Having Edwin Diaz already in camp feeling like his ’22 Terminator self was a promising sign — he looked like the same Sugar during Monday’s bullpen session — and don’t confuse Stearns’ offseason restraint with him being reserved in his own expectations for these Mets.

“As I talked to our players throughout the offseason, really from the moment I took the job, they wanted me to know how good they think the team is,” Stearns said. “They wanted me to know that they didn’t think the way ’23 played out was indicative of the talent level on the team. So I think that optimism is going to exist. I think those guys, and we as an organization, have a belief in the talent that’s in that room.”

Maybe it’s better this way. The Mets as World Series favorites hasn’t worked out too well in recent years. The last time they won the NL pennant, in 2015, PECOTA had predicted the Mets to finish 82-80. They won 90 and the NL East title.

Obviously, it’s Stearns’ job to be bullish on the Mets. Our gig is to be professional skeptics until we’re given reason to think otherwise.

Stearns doesn’t lack conviction in the task ahead. Persuading everyone else is going to take some time, and these next six weeks are only the start.

By David Lennon

dave.lennon@newsday.comDPLennon

David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.