Mets can't afford another curveball in rotation
Mets starting pitcher Justin Verlander delivers against the Dodgers during the second inning of an MLB game at Citi Field on Friday. Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke
The Mets’ latest rotation drama occurred roughly three hours before Justin Verlander’s opening pitch of the second half, the start of critical 17-day stretch that is likely to determine the fate of Steve Cohen’s record-setting $377 million bid for a World Series.
Shortly after Jose Quintana spoke Friday at his locker about finally joining the rotation, the status of Max Scherzer was in question, as manager Buck Showalter initially hedged on his upcoming turn.
Earlier in the week, Scherzer was presumed to be pitching Sunday. But as Showalter’s pregame media briefing was finishing up, he added one more wrinkle.
“It’s either Sunday,” Showalter said. “Or Tuesday.”
Great. Just what the Mets needed — more intrigue, Already clinging to the wild-card cliff by their fingernails, the task of climbing back into contention, at seven games out of the NL’s last playoff spot with five teams to jump, is formidable enough for Showalter & Co. But wondering yet again about Scherzer’s availability, after his flaky first half, was too familiar, in the worst possible way.
Because the Mets can forget about salvaging this season, and avoiding a surrender selloff at the Aug. 1 deadline, if the rotation — now finally together as GM Billy Eppler first drew it up back in March — can’t stay intact through a couple more turns. Showalter may talk about a dozen or more keys to unlock the potential of his underachieving Mets, but there is none bigger at the moment than the rotation.
Whether it’s up to the task is debatable, and from what we’ve witnessed to this point, the evidence would suggest "no." The Mets’ rotation entered Friday with a 4.57 ERA, tied for 20th with the Nationals, and a 1.41 WHIP that ranked them 24th, same as the Royals. Not good company to keep, especially when Cohen allowed Eppler to invest $128.6 million in this starting five — more than the entire payrolls of a dozen teams.
Friday was another chance for Verlander, who turned 40 in February, to reverse this demoralizing trend and he began the night with a 2.03 ERA over his last five starts. There were some other flickers of positivity among the first-half wreckage, with the rotation completing six innings or more in four straight games during the week leading up to the break.
The Mets were 27-4 when a starter goes that deep, and that kind of length doesn’t seem like a huge ask from a rotation with these resumes — or paychecks. But the next two weeks will be the first look at the group deployed as intended, as long as everybody is capable of doing so, which apparently was still in doubt despite the four-day All-Star break.
“I think in Quintana’s case, starting now is not optimal,” Eppler said Friday, referring to his 3 1/2 month stay on the IL recovering from rib-cage surgery. “But this is the circumstances that he was in — that we’re in together. We’re thankful that they’re active, because the alternatives are that we’re pitching with other players.”
As of Friday afternoon, despite Scherzer’s brief alarm, it appears the Mets will have them to rely on for the immediate future. Eppler explained that Scherzer showed up with a “little stiffness in his neck” after the break, which he attributed to sleeping in a bad position. The GM said this current issue is unrelated to the neck spasms that caused him to be scratched from a May start. But we are talking about a pitcher who turns 39 in two weeks, so even though he was ultimately cleared for Sunday’s start against the Dodgers, it feels like each one of Scherzer’s turns should be written in pencil.
That’s been the root of the Mets’ rotation-driven agita in the first half and is going to haunt them in the second — the two senior citizens at the front end. Scherzer pitched to a 4.31 ERA through his 16 starts before the break, and was last seen getting whacked around in San Diego by Manny Machado, who took him deep twice (5 RBIs) during last Sunday’s momentum-killing 6-2 loss to the Padres in the first-half finale.
Showalter tends to make vague references about stuff that Scherzer is dealing with — beyond what either one of them says publicly. And that shouldn’t instill a ton of confidence in Scherzer’s ability to keep answering the bell in the second half, until he proves otherwise. Factor in Verlander’s sub-par first half, coming off the shoulder-muscle strain that cost him five weeks, and the Mets are getting a lousy payoff for the $86 million spent on their pair of three-time Cy Young winners.
“One of the things we talked about with Max early on was the inconsistent trajectory, because of the little ailments he had going on and then the suspension time period,” Eppler said. “With Justin, it was getting that [shoulder] issue kind of in his rear-view mirror, and the further he gets from that, some of the better quality stuff we’ve seen. So I think it’s just getting that stuff further in their background.”
Either that, or the 2023 Mets could be history by the end of this month.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
