Mets have what it takes to win next two games, make World Series
Mets' Francisco Lindor, left, smiles after batting during practice in preparation for Game 6 in a baseball NL Championship Series against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Saturday, Oct. 19, 2024, in Los Angeles. Credit: AP/Mark J. Terrill
LOS ANGELES — If any team should feel at home in Hollywood, it’s the 2024 Mets, whose astonishing October playoff run has been pure cinema.
But in the words of Jay-Z, another famous walk-up song artist (long before the Temptations showed up at Citi Field), “this ain’t a movie, dawg.”
No, for all its incredulity, what these Mets are doing is real life. And if there’s anyone still skeptical that Carlos Mendoza & Co. can’t roll into Chavez Ravine and swipe the National League pennant from the Dodgers, after being down three games to one in this NLCS, there’s been a mountain of evidence piling up over the past five months.
The Mets' origin story is baseball canon by now. The 0-5 start under a rookie manager, 11 games under .500 at Memorial Day, the Jorge Lopez glove throw — at the culmination of a Citi Field sweep by these very same Dodgers, of all teams — triggering the clubhouse meeting/accountability check that legitimately turned the season around.
But that only laid the foundation for October. What’s transpired since that magical doubleheader day at despised Truist Park, when Francisco Lindor’s ninth-inning home run beat Atlanta and launched this playoff odyssey, has galvanized the Mets for this moment.
The Wild Card Series followed in Milwaukee, where the Mets were down two runs in the ninth and stood two outs away from elimination until Pete Alonso shocked the Brewers’ elite closer Devin Williams by smashing a three-run homer over the rightfield wall. They only needed four games to dispatch the Phillies in the Division Series, as Lindor, nursing a bad back for weeks, drilled a sixth-inning grand slam that flipped a 1-0 deficit and kicked off the first clinching celebration in the 16-year history of Citi Field.
For the record, the Mets bounced two division champs, including a bitter NL East rival, to set up this showdown with a third in the 97-win Dodgers. And when they take the field Sunday night for Game 6, it will be Game No. 175 of this OMG journey, and they’re not here because Grimace took the mound in June.
“Chemistry,” Lindor said as the Mets packed for Los Angeles after Friday night’s 12-6 blowout at Citi Field. “From loving each other, understanding each other and wanting to be successful for each other.”
Deep stuff. But Lindor, as the Mets’ de facto captain (does a C make sense in his future?), is the heartbeat of this team, along with being its MVP engine. He’s a big reason to believe in the Mets’ chances to win these next two games and reach their first World Series since 2015. But not the only one, so we’ve gathered a few more that could ultimately get the Mets back to Citi Field again, only this time with a championship at stake.
Polar Bear necessities
Have you noticed that the closer these Mets get to elimination, someone pokes his head out of the cave? It happened during the do-or-die Game 3 of the Wild Card Series, when Alonso — hitting .122 (5-for-41) without an extra-base hit, 13 Ks and one RBI since his last homer on Sept. 19 — stepped to the plate with outs left in the Mets season and drilled the biggest home run of his career.
Flash forward to Friday’s Game 5, potentially Alonso’s last wearing a Mets uniform at Citi Field, and the homegrown slugger didn’t even wait for another pitch in the strike zone. When Jack Flaherty threw him an 85-mph slider only a foot above the dirt, Alonso destroyed it, giving the 7-Line Army encampment a souvenir as well as the Mets a 3-0 lead they kept for good.
“Pete hits a ball off the ground — to the Apple,” Jesse Winker said. “That was pretty sick.”
It was Alonso’s fourth homer of this postseason, and fifth overall — with four of those putting the Mets ahead. As for the NLCS shift out west, Alonso is a career .312 hitter with seven homers, 18 RBIs and a .987 OPS in 18 games at Dodger Stadium. When I asked him about that success during Saturday’s workout at Chavez Ravine, Alonso explained he loves hitting in the historic parks, like here, Fenway Park and Wrigley Field.
You can bet Alonso wants a few more games at Citi Field, too.
“It’s storybook stuff,” Alonso said.
Dodger Dogs
We’re not talking about the tepid mystery-meat tubes they serve up at Chavez Ravine. It’s the actual Dodgers’ themselves, a franchise that deserves an Oscar for pretending to be a World Series favorite every year. This is the Dodgers’ 12th straight trip to the playoffs, including 11 NL West titles, and they have one championship ring to show for it — from the COVID-shortened 60-game season, which featured neutral-site playoffs in empty stadiums. Since that title, Team Hollywood has bowed out in the Division Series twice, including last year’s sweep by the Cinderella Diamondbacks, the precursor to these ’24 Mets.
Once again, the pressure is all on the Dodgers, especially after they took a 3-1 lead in this series by outscoring the Mets, 30-9, and pitching a pair of shutouts. They looked tight in Friday’s potential clincher — purported ace Flaherty had nothing and Shohei Ohtani experienced a “brain cramp” by freezing at third base rather than give the Dodgers a 1-0 lead when the Mets conceded the run on Teoscar Hernandez’s groundout.
Also, the injury-ravaged Dodgers (built-in excuse for the $300 million roster?) are going with another bullpen game Sunday night. That was a disaster in Game 2, as the Mets rocked five relievers in a 7-3 victory that never felt that close.
Jesse’s whirl
By all accounts, J.D. Martinez has been invaluable as a clubhouse hitting consultant this season, along with a few key moments at the plate. But it’s Winker’s turn now at DH, and he only solidified that in Game 5, going 2-for-3 with a walk, a triple and three runs scored. Winker admitted to his costly base-running screw-up in the Game 1 loss, but that aggression — and knack for antagonizing the opposition — is a valuable asset in further trying to fluster the Dodgers.
Having Winker between Alonso and Starling Marte (three doubles, 3 RBIs in Game 5) served as a catalyst for the offense, which tormented Flaherty in rolling up 14 hits — the second most by the Mets in a playoff game — and scoring five runs in an inning for the fourth time this postseason.
“We’re going to go one pitch at a time and try to put together two of our best games of the year,” Winker said. “See where the chips fall.”
Mendoza said during Saturday’s full workout at Dodger Stadium that he planned to use Winker at DH for Game 6.
El Troll job
Francisco Alvarez’s nickname comes in handy for the rope-a-dope he’s pulled on the Dodgers. Before Game 4, the hot topic of conversation involved whether or not to bench the Mets’ 22-year-old catcher, whose production was melting by the day in October. In hindsight, the idea sounds ludicrous. After hitting .143 (5-for-35) with zero extra-base hits and 13 strikeouts, Alvarez — buoyed by the manager’s faith — is now on a 4-for-5 tear, with a double and RBI. He’s making vicious contact again, and after looking lost at the plate, hasn’t whiffed once in six plate appearances. We’ll see what happens when the Dodgers go to more high-leverage guys for Game 6 and possibly 7.
“I think the biggest difference has been his confidence,” said Marte, who took Alvarez aside for some teammate therapy. “He’s the type of player that you can say something to and he’ll put it into practice.”
Alvarez slugging again from the No. 9 spot would be a huge lift for the Mets, obviously. And do a lot to put months of personal disappointment in the rear-view mirror for the impressionable young catcher.
Check the math
The Mets’ uphill climb continues with Sunday night’s Game 6, but coming back from a 3-1 deficit, as daunting as it seems, is not unprecedented. Since the LCS went to a best-of-seven format in 1985, teams down 3-1 in the series have rebounded to advance eight times in 45 tries, for a 17.7% success rate. The 2020 Dodgers were the last team to pull it off, taking down Atlanta in the NLCS before beating the Rays in the World Series.
Once the Mets got to 3-2 with Friday night’s Game 5 victory, however, that success rate jumped to 29.2% for the LCS (33-14) and overall, for any best-of-seven (including the World Series) it edges up to 30.7% (79-114).
The Mets will take those odds, especially with their ace Sean Manaea going for Game 6.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
