How Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s new deal might keep Pete Alonso with Mets
Mets first baseman Pete Alonso talks to Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at first base after hitting a single during the sixth inning at Citi Field on Sunday. Credit: Brad Penner
Pete Alonso didn’t come right out and say it Monday, but the chances of his staying long-term in Flushing improved dramatically the moment Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agreed on his new $500 million contract to stick with the Blue Jays.
Not that we felt Guerrero was ever a serious threat to unseat Alonso as the Mets’ first baseman despite the brief flirtation with the idea over the winter while the Polar Bear’s future was in doubt. But taking the other top free agent off the board in early April — and putting a price tag on him — finally established a market value that previously was difficult to grasp a few months back.
Plus just as Guerrero was always a perfect fit in Toronto as a perennial MVP candidate both homegrown and Canadian, Alonso has a similarly deep connection to the Mets. He is a second-round draft pick who quickly slugged his way into the hearts of the Flushing faithful.
The Blue Jays ultimately realized how badly they needed to retain Guerrero after repeatedly failing to get anyone to take their money in free agency. The exorbitant sum that is spread out over 14 years also should help boost Alonso’s earning power even though he is four years older than Guerrero.
“It’s huge for first basemen,” said Alonso, who went 2-for-4 with a double Monday night in the Mets’ 2-0 victory over the Marlins. “I mean, $35 million, I think that breaks the AAV record. Obviously, half a billion dollars is a huge, huge, huge amount. For him, it’s a fantastic deal and it’s great for the first-base market, I think. He’s a stud. I think right now you can’t think of the Toronto Blue Jays without Vlad Jr. He’s done some really amazing things in this league, and for that team, and super-well-deserved.”
More precisely, Guerrero’s average annual salary comes out to $35.7 million, and the record he just broke was held by Alonso, who owned it for roughly two months after signing a two-year, $54 million deal that pays him $30 million for this season (with an opt-out for the second).
The way Alonso’s contract is structured, after a winter-long stalemate between him and the Mets, it was designed as a face-saving maneuver to promptly get the Polar Bear back home to Citi Field before figuring out the rest at a later date.
That was no simple task, either. It took some serious public flexing by Mets owner Steve Cohen, who called out Alonso’s agent, Scott Boras, for his hard-line tactics before making a special trip to Alonso’s hometown of Tampa to get a deal done face-to-face on the eve of spring training.
Now, in the wake of Guerrero’s extension, there’s no reason those negotiations can’t be revisited during this season, as Alonso stacks up favorably to the Jays’ four-time All-Star and already is off to the best start of any Met.
Since 2019, when both debuted in the majors, Alonso has out-homered Guerrero 229 to 160 and has a 17.8 WAR to his 17.0. Guerrero is a career .287 hitter, compared to Alonso’s .249, and his 137 OPS+ is slightly better than Alonso’s 134.
Based on their four-year age gap, Alonso is looking at a much shorter contract, but now we’re more in the ballpark from an AAV standpoint. That should help reignite talks in the not-too-distant future, something that Alonso isn’t opposed to during the season, saying Monday that “Scott’s phone is always on.”
“We’re open to it,” Alonso said. “But my focus right now is just doing what I can to help win tonight. Obviously, if something happens, I’m sure Scott and Steve or Scott and David [Stearns] will talk about it. But if not, no big deal, because this is ball time. We’re trying to win ballgames right now.”
As for Stearns, the Mets’ president of baseball operations declined to discuss Guerrero’s new monster deal because the agreement had yet to become official. He also refused to express his views on the first-base market in general during Monday’s media session.
“I will comment on that when we get to the offseason,” Stearns said.
He did have to acknowledge the obvious, however. Alonso has been acting as the engine to an otherwise sputtering Mets offense. He’s hitting a team-high .314 with three homers, 11 RBIs and a 1.086 OPS to outshine Juan Soto, the new $765 million man. And there was no downplaying his importance, or popularity, as evidenced by the raucous welcome and “Pete Al-on-so” chants during Friday’s Citi Field opener.
“It’s been great,” Stearns said. “I think we’ve seen over the years here that when Pete gets going, he can carry a team. And it’s been fun to see him with some enormous home runs. I think he’s enjoyed it. Hopefully it’s allowed him to take a little bit of a deep breath, and he’s earned it. He loves playing here, our fans love watching him and he’s been a huge part of our wins so far this season.”
Maybe all the pressure of Alonso’s walk year heavily weighed on him leading into his first shot at free agency. But whatever contributed to his having his least productive season, at the worst possible time, that stress appears to have been stripped away, and it has made the Polar Bear dangerous again. And now, even more valuable, with the knowledge that a bigger payday lies ahead.
“For me to be overly concerned with that stuff, I’d be doing a disservice to this team,” Alonso said. “There’s going to be plenty of time for that contractual stuff. But right now, it’s time to win ballgames. It’s time to chase down our ultimate goal.”
Sooner or later, a lot more money is going to be there for Alonso, and most likely that lucrative future lies in Flushing.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
