Steve Cohen's Mets learning that pitching lines, bottom lines don't always add up
Mets pitcher Justin Verlander looks out from the dugout before an Opening Day baseball game against the Miami Marlins, Thursday, March 30, 2023, in Miami. Credit: AP/Lynne Sladky
The Mets’ winter blueprint for the 2023 rotation didn’t have David Peterson facing the Padres in Game No. 12 at Citi Field. Or Tylor Megill following him in Wednesday’s series finale.
Those two starts were supposed to go to Jose Quintana and Justin Verlander, respectively, before both were sidelined by injury — without either of them throwing a single regular-season pitch.
Still, the Mets did get a solid performance Tuesday night from Peterson, who allowed only Manny Machado’s two-run double through 5 2/3 innings, a hooking line drive that barely caught the chalk to stay fair and put the Padres ahead to stay in their 4-2 victory.
“I thought it was right pitch for the right spot,” Peterson said of the two-out, two-strike slider to Machado. “I don’t think I got it to the spot I wanted to and he gets paid the big bucks for a reason, so...”
Peterson’s gem has been a rarity for this staff, and with the Mets’ inability to deliver with runners in scoring position — or hit at all, for that matter — any weakness in this rotation becomes an even greater obstacle to overcome. The Mets went 1-for-8 in those situations Tuesday, and are now batting .200 (20-for-100) with RISP. Only the Royals are worse (.154) and Francisco Alvarez whiffing to end the game with the tying runs in scoring position — Padres closer Josh Hader didn’t throw him a strike among those seven pitches — was an especially painful exclamation point to a frustrating night.
Peterson turned in a valiant effort protecting a 1-0 lead into the fifth, courtesy of Mark Canha’s sacrifice fly, but that’s a particularly fragile margin against a Padres’ lineup that wore out Max Scherzer (97 pitches) the previous night in only five innings. Without more help, the strain on the rotation is only going to intensify as April progresses.
“I thought Peterson was the key to us being in that game,” manager Buck Showalter said. “He really pitched well — attacked. Good to see him get after it tonight like he did.”
The Mets could use more of that. A lot more. Of all Steve Cohen’s numerous investments, across his $17 billion hedge fund empire, the Mets owner would be hard pressed to find one more underperforming than the $128.6 million put into this rotation — more than the entire payrolls of 12 teams. A sizable chunk of that goes to the pair of three-time Cy Young winners, with Verlander and Scherzer each pulling in $43.3 million for this season.
It’s still way too early to be overly concerned about the starting staff, but the returns to this point are underwhelming. Heading into Tuesday night, the Mets’ rotation had a 4.63 ERA, which ranked 18th in the majors, and a 1.44 WHIP that placed 19th. They also had the fourth-highest walk rate per nine innings (4.79).
That shouldn’t be surprising when the group is being anchored by two insurance policies that were supposed to be at Triple-A Syracuse right now while the two slam-dunk Hall of Famers are working to regain their Cooperstown-worthy form, making a strong April considerably more difficult, if not impossible. And that also adds some fuel to the skepticism surrounding two aging stars, with Verlander already 40 and Scherzer turning 39 in July.
As of now, Verlander (shoulder-muscle strain) plans to return by the end of this month. But Showalter said Tuesday that Verlander is headed to Port St. Lucie when the Mets leave for the West Coast after Wednesday’s series finale. Showalter also suggested Verlander may need a minor-league rehab start — “That’s the plan, but it could change,” he said — before rejoining the rotation and that would seem to potentially be two weeks away.
“There’s nothing negative,” Showalter said. “He seemed to be in a really good frame of mind.”
Optimism is all the Mets can really go on at the moment regarding their rotation, aside from the former Japanese ace Kodai Senga, who came to the States as the biggest unknown of the group. Instead, Senga has looked the most comfortable, unleashing a “ghost fork” that’s legitimized the hype and spurred him to a 2-0 start with a 1.59 ERA and 11.1 K/9 ratio.
Senga originally was penciled in as the No. 3 starter after signing a five-year, $75 million contract. But here in mid-April, with the rest of the rotation’s issues, Senga is the undisputed ace. Now the Mets just have to hope the shoulder and elbow concerns that Senga reportedly dealt with some in Japan — and lowered his price during the winter negotiations — don’t pop up again during his rookie season.
The Mets already have enough to worry about with their pricey starting staff, which isn’t yet the strength it was supposed to be. That doesn’t mean Cohen’s investment in the rotation won’t pay off eventually, but a timetable for that is hard to figure.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
