Deadline is crunch time for Mets, Yankees bottom lines
Mets starting pitcher Jose Quintana delivers against the Yankees during the first inning of an MLB game at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. Credit: Kathleen Malone-Van Dyke
Entering the Subway Series finale, the Mets and Yankees had six days left to evaluate their respective stances for the Aug. 1 trade deadline.
Just under a week doesn’t seem like much time, with the fate of a very expensive season hanging in the balance. But these teams have been gathering evidence for nearly four months, and the data suggests neither club is in a position to take any big swings by Tuesday at 6 p.m. Nor should they, really.
After the Yankees’ 3-1 victory Wednesday night, the Subway Series split really did nothing to tilt the scales in either direction. From the Yankees’ perspective, Carlos Rodon finally was adequate in his fourth start, holding the Mets to four hits and one run over 5 2/3 innings, but he’s not pitching to his $162 million contract quite yet. Just another reason to question the Yankees’ validity going forward.
“I would have taken it three starts ago,” said Rodon, who improved to 1-3 and trimmed his ERA to 5.75. “But it’s nice to have that now, get it out of the way, and just kind of build off the start.”
The Yankees have plenty of work to do from the basement of the AL East, and even with Aaron Judge’s return imminent -- maybe as soon as this weekend’s series in Baltimore -- it’s not like he’ll magically transform them back into a World Series contender. The Mets’ beatdown in Tuesday’s opener provided a reality check after their sweep of the pitiful Royals, and even with salvaging the split, now it’s just a matter of whether GM Brian Cashman will believe what his eyes (and analytics) are telling him.
As for Judge, to expect the reigning MVP to carry the Yankees again, as he did last season and the first two months of this one, is unrealistic on a damaged toe. He’s practically told us that during his seven-week rehab. The rest of the Yankees aren’t doing a great job convincing anyone this a worthy playoff contender, either. They’re 19-23 without Judge. The AL East may be the toughest division in baseball, but the last-place Yankees are rapidly running out of time to earn any significant infusions of talent at the deadline. The players recognize that, too.
“We are not in a position to be like, hey, in two weeks we’re going to have a prove-it moment,” Gerrit Cole said Wednesday afternoon. “We don’t have that luxury. Today is a prove-it moment. I don’t know what the front office thinks. But I know what we think in here, and that’s what we think. We’ve been saying we gotta get it going and I think we’re definitely working our butts off to get it going, and it hasn’t gotten going.”
Cole painting the picture of a perpetually misfiring roster sums up the Yankees’ increasingly bleak outlook. They have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule (.517) in the majors, according to Tankathon.com. Still, Cole doesn’t believe the front office is going to bail entirely on the ’23 team, with FanGraphs giving the Yankees a 31.7% chance to make the postseason.
“The culture is so much about winning here, that any opportunity where there’s a chance to improve the percentage of winning, just generally, I would expect the Yankees to do that,” Cole said. “That’s the Yankees brand.”
As for the Mets, they remain in the process of developing a brand -- or at least significantly improving the one that Steve Cohen purchased three years ago. Now they’re at a crossroads again, only this time with a record $377 million payroll, and trying to figure out how much more investment this group deserves.
The Mets are 5-6 since the All-Star break, but showed some encouraging signs during Tuesday’s 9-3 rout in the Bronx, specifically the two-homer night from the previously slumbering Pete Alonso. That didn’t last, however, as Alonso went 0-for-4 Wednesday with two strikeouts and stranded four.
The other bright spot Tuesday was Justin Verlander, who is 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and a .153 OBA over his five starts this month (he’s got one more before Tuesday’s deadline). Overall, the Mets’ 3.66 ERA was the fifth-lowest in the majors for July, so there is a resurgence in some key areas. It will have to continue over these next six days for the front office to stay the longshot course. The Mets have the eighth-hardest remaining schedule (.513) and only one team they’re chasing -- the Marlins (.520) -- have it tougher the rest of the way.
“They’re going to have to take what they’ve seen in the last month and start to decide, OK, are we trending in the right direction or not?” Brandon Nimmo said of the Mets’ front office. “I think it’s going to be a combination of what we’ve done for the last month and what we do over these next six days. But it’s going to come down to the [next] six days: strengthen what they’ve seen in the last month or weaken it?”
That effort continued with Wednesday night’s Subway Series finale. For both the Mets and Yankees, however, they’ll have to prove it’s not a case of too little, too late.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
