Where things stand at the halfway point (or thereabouts) of the MLB season
Baltimore Orioles' Gunnar Henderson (2) celebrates a single against the Texas Rangers during the first inning of a baseball game Thursday, June 27, 2024, in Baltimore. Credit: AP/Stephanie Scarbrough
Of all the interesting numbers from this first half of the season — most teams already have played 90 games, by the way — here’s a stat that’s a bit staggering leading up to the 94th All-Star Game on July 16 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
Zero. Nada. Zip. Zilch.
That’s how many members of the defending World Series champion Rangers will be in the American League starting lineup for this year’s Midsummer Classic, an event taking place at their home ballpark.
Ouch.
Making matters just slightly that much worse is the fact that Jose Altuve — a longtime Astros nemesis from Houston — beat out the Rangers’ only finalist, Marcus Semien, by a 14% margin in the final fan balloting.
A year ago, Semien was among five Rangers in the AL’s starting lineup in Seattle. He was joined by catcher Jonah Heim, shortstop Corey Seager, third baseman Josh Jung and outfielder Adolis Garcia.
Talk about the bubble bursting in Texas, where the Rangers were eight games below .500 (40-48) heading into Saturday and eight games out of the third and final wild-card spot. And tough luck for reigning Manager of the Year Bruce Bochy, who will have the pleasure of writing in two Astros, two Orioles and two Yankees into the All-Star Game starting lineup. All three clubs were in his rearview mirror last season, and he beat two of them in the playoffs.
Anyway, Bochy has four World Series rings and is a surefire Hall of Famer, so he’ll be fine.
In other first-half story lines, we’ve seen some quick rebounds with the Grimace-powered Mets (NL-best 16-8 record in June) and the suddenly awakened Astros (17-8 last month, tops in MLB). Then there’s the Red Sox, who didn’t seem to be trying over the winter when they traded away Chris Sale (more on him below) but have rallied behind lame-duck manager Alex Cora to become a wild-card threat and maybe even hunt down the reeling Yankees.
We’ve also seen Atlanta’s Ronald Acuna Jr., the reigning NL MVP, suffer a season-ending knee injury for the second time in three years (Atlanta won the 2021 World Series without him), the spectacular debut of Pirates rookie fireballer Paul Skenes (drafted last July) and another Mike Trout absence (knee surgery) adding to the Angels’ perennial woes under their first-year manager, Ron Washington.
The Dodgers’ $1.2 billon investment in the offseason has put them in first place, as expected, but a $325 million chunk won’t be paying off again until possibly September with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (6-2, 2.92 ERA) on the IL with a shoulder strain. Pitching injuries continue to be one of the bigger issues plaguing MLB, as the best prevention seems to be crossed fingers and prayers.
But that’s something to monitor in the second half. For now, it’s on to the halfway awards, and in the interest of full transparency, I’ve also included my preseason picks.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP: GUNNAR HENDERSON, ORIOLES
Tough call, but Henderson gets the nod here for a couple of reasons. Going by the numbers, Henderson has the slight edge with an MLB-best 6.2 WAR (according to FanGraphs) to Aaron Judge’s 6.0. But it’s more than just that.
The difference here is that Henderson wasn’t a non-factor for a month the way Judge was from late March until the end of April (.207 batting average, .754 OPS). And given that this is just a first-half sample, that’s a big part of the equation.
Playing an elite shortstop and entering Saturday with 27 homers and an OPS-plus of 179 for the AL East leaders gets the nod here. If Judge wins the Triple Crown, we reserve the right to change our mind in September.
Preseason pick: Juan Soto, Yankees
CY YOUNG: TARIK SKUBAL, TIGERS
This is a tight race at midseason and could be shaken up by the July 30 trade deadline (re: current White Sox pitcher Garrett Crochet). But Skubal currently has the most balanced case in a crowded field. He entered Saturday third in the AL in ERA (2.45), sixth in K/9 ratio (10.40) and fifth in opponents’ batting average (.199). He also ranks second in the AL in WHIP (0.93), a tick below the Mariners’ Logan Gilbert (0.92). And with other candidates scattered through the leaderboard, Skubal has a bit of separation.
Crochet could be pitching in the other league come August, but we could see the Orioles’ Corbin Burnes or the Royals’ Seth Lugo coming up the outside rail in the second half.
Preseason pick: Corbin Burnes, Orioles
MANAGER OF THE YEAR: STEPHEN VOGT, GUARDIANS
In recent years, being the top team in the AL Central wasn’t much of an accomplishment. But Vogt, in his first year as manager, had the small-market Guardians at 54 wins entering Saturday while building a sizable lead over the Twins. It’s not easy taking over for a future Hall of Famer in Terry Francona, but Vogt — who retired as a player in 2022 — has made the transition seamless in getting the sport’s fifth-lowest payroll ($98M) back on a postseason track.
Preseason pick: AJ Hinch, Tigers
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: MASON MILLER, A’S
The Yankees’ Luis Gil seemed like a runaway for this award through the first two months of the season, but whether it’s fatigue or something else, his 14.90 ERA in his past three starts has put his rotation status in jeopardy. That opened the door for Miller, and the A’s closer has appeared almost out of nowhere to become the most coveted relief arm as the trade deadline approaches. Miller is the hardest thrower in the sport, as his fastball (100.8 mph), splitter (97.6) and changeup (92.3) have the highest average velocities. He also is 14-for-16 in save chances for the lousy A’s with a 15.77 K/9 rate, tops in the majors.
Preseason pick: Jackson Holliday, Orioles
NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP: SHOHEI OHTANI, DODGERS
Ohtani is merely a one-way player for this season, and a DH at that. But what he already has done from an offensive standpoint has launched him to the front of the MVP pack, as his closest competitor, teammate Mookie Betts, is sidelined until probably August with a fractured wrist. You don’t get paid $700 million for nothing, and the reigning AL MVP entered Saturday leading the NL in home runs (27), slugging percentage (.626), OPS (1.020) and total bases (213). Third in batting average (.312) isn’t so bad, either.
Preseason pick: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
CY YOUNG: CHRIS SALE, ATLANTA
Just like the AL, this race is tight. Sale currently gets the edge over the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow and the Phillies’ Ranger Suarez, either of whom could surge past him in the second half. Sale has engineered quite the career rebirth in Atlanta, turning back the clock nearly a decade to a time when he consistently was a top five finisher for the Cy Young Award. He entered Saturday first in WHIP (0.91), second in ERA (2.71) and third in K/9 rate (11.47) and opponents’ batting average (.198). Sale couldn’t stay healthy in Boston, prompting the Red Sox to ship him south in January along with $17 million in salary. And with $10 million of his total $27.5 million salary for this season deferred until 2039, his $500,000 cost to Atlanta is arguably the sport’s biggest bargain.
Preseason pick: Zack Wheeler, Phillies
MANAGER OF THE YEAR: PAT MURPHY, BREWERS
What sweet irony this would be for the Brewers. They got ditched by Craig Counsell after nine seasons for a record $40 million contract from the NL Central rival Cubs and haven’t skipped a beat with Murphy, his longtime bench coach, who also coached Counsell during his playing days at Notre Dame. Murphy already was at home in Milwaukee, so no worries about a transition process, and his 52-win Brewers (a bottom-third payroll team) are looking down at Counsell’s Cubs, who entered Saturday mired in last place, 11 games behind the division leaders.
Preseason pick: Craig Counsell, Cubs
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: PAUL SKENES, PIRATES
A month ago, this belonged to the Cubs’ Shota Imanaga, who had overshadowed fellow Japanese rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto by carrying a sub-1.00 ERA until the final week of May (10 starts). But two new factors emerged. One was the Mets, who raked Imanaga for 10 runs in three innings on June 21. The other was the May 11 promotion of Skenes, last year’s No. 1 draft pick, whose triple-digit fastball has led him to a 5-0 record with a 2.12 ERA and 11.83 K/9 rate through 10 starts (59 1⁄3 innings).
Preseason pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
