Here are some picks for MLB's biggest regular-season awards
As of this writing, Major League Baseball was roughly 48 hours from wrapping up its regular season -- or 72, if you’re Atlanta and the Mets. But settling the playoff configurations for October? In that not-so-small detail, an uncomfortable amount of distance remained, and too rushed a period of time to get there.
Don’t get us wrong. Who doesn’t love drama? You can bet MLB does when it comes to TV ratings, and the higher the stakes, the greater number of eyeballs. But MLB also worked to prevent something like Monday’s scenario happening when they introduced the expanded playoff format for the 2022 season.
By adding two more teams and stretching out the wild-card round to a best-of-three, that meant more games to squeeze in during approximately the same period, with the objective to finish the World Series not long after Halloween (and preferably avoid November entirely). That’s why the wild-card series is limited to the home field of the higher-seed and plays three games in three straight days.
Also, MLB did away with the idea of a potential Game 163 to decide a playoff berth (as entertaining as that do-or-die programming was). It’s all supposed to be determined by tie-breakers now, so the playoffs can go off as scheduled, without teams losing their off/workout days in between.
That was the idea anyway. But now? Not only does MLB have one game tentatively scheduled for Monday -- the eve of the wild-card round -- it has two, involving a pair of teams that could then rush off to Milwaukee or San Diego to play the biggest game of the year on extremely short notice.
It could’ve been avoided. The lack of urgency, foresight and preparation that led to Hurricane Helene wiping out the back two games of the Atlanta-Mets series at Truist Park created the exact brand of chaos that’s detrimental to the game’s competitive integrity on two fronts: both in determining the playoff field and how the postseason is conducted.
There was still a weekend escape hatch. Atlanta and the Mets -- along with a key assist from the other domino, the Diamondbacks -- could play their respective ways into some sort of weekend resolution, making Monday unnecessary. That would do MLB a big favor from a PR perspective, though hardly deserved.
But as we wait for the playoffs to begin, let’s tackle some of the regular-season awards, with the BBWAA ballots due later this week and the winners to be announced in November. Here are my picks, which also include my preseason predictions and midseason projections. Since I’m voting for the NL MVP this year -- the awards rotate among BBWAA members -- I can’t reveal my pick here, so that category will just include some brief debate. And the winners are:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
MVP: AARON JUDGE, YANKEES
First off, credit to Bobby Witt Jr., as the Royals’ wunderkind shortstop actually makes this a relatively close race with Judge, a one-man wrecking ball whose only equal -- from an offensive standpoint, anyway -- is the Dodgers’ amazing DH Shohei Ohtani. Judge remained a Triple Crown threat into the season’s final weekend, leading the majors in homers (58), RBIs (144) while sitting third in the AL with a .325 batting average -- trailing only Witt (.332) and Vlad Guerrero Jr. (.326). Worth noting that Judge also plays a premium spot in centerfield -- though right is where he really shines -- and Witt gets points for pushing the Royals to the playoffs after a 100-loss season. A few weeks back, maybe Witt gets a handful of first-place votes, but it’s hard not to see Judge being a unanimous selection.
Preseason pick: Juan Soto, Yankees
Midseason pick: Gunnar Henderson
CY YOUNG: TARIK SKUBAL, TIGERS
Remember the deadline chatter about the Tigers possibly trading Tarik Skubal? It seems beyond ludicrous now, as Skubal is one of the primary engines that propelled Detroit to its longshot wild-card berth, which was sewn up Friday. We had Skubal pegged as the AL Cy winner at the All-Star break, and he’s only polished his bid since then, now giving the Tigers a shutdown ace for October. There’s no touching his resume, as Skubal leads AL starters in ERA (2.39) and the majors in both strikeouts (228) and -- if you’re into wins, that too (18). He’s second in the AL in WHIP (0.922) to Seattle’s Logan Gilbert (0.906) and third in HR per nine innings (0.70). Since June 25, Skubal is 10-1 with a 2.29 ERA while limiting opposing hitters to a .197 average. The Tigers -- spearheaded by Skubal -- went 50-32 during that span.
Preseason pick: Corbin Burnes, Orioles
Midseason pick: Skubal
MANAGER OF THE YEAR: STEPHEN VOGT, GUARDIANS
We don’t often talk about tight races in this category, largely because managers don’t have easily measurable stats that we can track on a daily basis. But this year, the AL gives us a trio of very strong candidates -- remarkably, all from the perennially weak Central division, too. We gave Vogt the edge at the break for all he had to overcome in his first shot at managing -- taking over for future Hall of Famer Terry Francona, losing ace Shane Bieber for the season and inheriting the 25th-ranked payroll in the sport. All that, and Vogt not only led the Guardians to the Central title, but was challenging the $300-million Yankees for the AL’s best record. The Royals’ Matt Quatraro also deserves serious consideration -- though his club got a big free-agent cash infusion over the winter -- as does A.J. Hinch, who engineered this year’s best in-season turnaround.
Preseason pick: A.J. Hinch, Tigers
Midseason pick: Vogt
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: COLTON COWSER, ORIOLES
Back in March, I had the right team for this award, just the wrong player. While the massively-hyped Jackson Holliday grabbed all the headlines, it was Colton Cowser that made the greatest rookie impact for the Orioles, who managed to hold on to the AL’s top wild-card spot despite a very disappointing second half. Cowser, an everyday outfielder who’s played each spot over his 152 games, led AL rookies in homers (24), runs scored (77) and WAR (4.1). Honorable mention: the Yankees’ strong rookie duo of Luis Gil (15-6, 3.27 ERA) and Austin Wells (second-best 3.4 WAR).
Preseason pick: Jackson Holliday, Orioles
Midseason pick: Mason Miller, A’s
NATIONAL LEAGUE
MVP: ????
As mentioned above, this is my voting category this year, so I can’t reveal my ballot until the results are made public in November. But there was some intrigue in the NL race this year -- even with Shohei Ohtani’s historic 50-50 season -- since the Japanese superstar was limited to DH duties after last September’s Tommy John surgery and Francisco Lindor wound up being the standout true two-way star among the top two candidates. For some, this MVP vote could come down to a philosophical argument: does a player who sits out the defensive half of the game deserve the total consideration? No full-time DH has ever won the award -- David Ortiz came the closest with 11 first-place votes in 2005 -- so Ohtani’s candidacy will put that thinking to the test.
Preseason pick: Mookie Betts, Dodgers
Midseason pick: Ohtani
CY YOUNG: CHRIS SALE, ATLANTA
Sale’s resurgence from his injury-marred Red Sox tenure probably has surpassed even the most optimistic projections for the 35-year-old lefthander. Entering the final weekend, Sale led all MLB starters with a 2.38 ERA, 11.40 strikeouts per nine innings and was tied with AL favorite Tarik Skubal with 18 wins. He also was second in WHIP (1.013) to the Phillies’ Zack Wheeler (0.960) and fourth in opponent’s batting average (.215). Perhaps the only knock on Sale is that his innings total (177 2/3) is a little light -- almost 30 behind NL leader Logan Webb -- but that was to be expected given his age and injury history. He’s also a huge reason why banged-up Atlanta is on the brink of a playoff berth.
Preseason pick: Zack Wheeler, Phillies
Midseason pick: Sale
MANAGER OF THE YEAR: CARLOS MENDOZA, METS
No knock on the Brewers’ Pat Murphy, who upstaged his former benchmate (the traitorous Craig Counsell, who took $40M from the Cubs) in leading Milwaukee to the NL Central title. But managing the Mets is among the toughest gig in all of pro sports, even now with baseball’s richest owner Steve Cohen always ready with the checkbook, and Mendoza continually navigated his team through potentially season-sinking turbulence: an 0-5 start, then falling to 11 games under .500 in early June. The Mets still had MLB’s highest payroll -- much of that based on the sunk cost of traded players -- but Mendoza had to handle a pieced-together rotation and patchwork bullpen in getting the Mets to post MLB’s best winning percentage (.673) since May 29, putting the wild car in their grasp on the final weekend.
Preseason pick: Craig Counsell, Cubs
Midseason pick: Pat Murphy, Brewers
ROOKIE OF THE YEAR: JACKSON MERRILL, PADRES
Tough call here. If we went with pure headline-generating sizzle, it’s hard not to pick the Pirates’ Paul Skenes, who would be gunning for the Cy Young if Pittsburgh didn’t delay his MLB debut until May 12. Even so, Skenes was still 11-3 with a 1.99 ERA, 11.47 K/9 ratio and 0.962 WHIP in 22 starts before Saturday’s finale vs. the Yankees. But if we treat this award as the most complete rookie performance, as in most valuable rookie, then it’s got to be Merrill, who moved from shortstop to be the Padres’ Opening Day centerfielder and made 147 starts there (155 games overall). Entering the final weekend, Merrill was hitting .292 with 24 homers, 90 RBIs and an .824 OPS. Not only was his 5.1 WAR (according to FanGraphs) by far the highest among all rookies, it ranked 17th in the majors overall.
Preseason pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Dodgers
Midseason pick: Paul Skenes, Pirates
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
