Woe Captain, My Captain after hearing Aaron Judge's self-prognosis
Aaron Judge #99 of the New York Yankees looks on against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on Tuesday, July 4, 2023 in the Bronx borough of New York City. Credit: Jim McIsaac
As the $360 million captain, Aaron Judge is unfailingly bullish on the Yankees. That’s part of the job description.
But his banged-up big toe? Judge keeps pumping the brakes. And his gloomy self-prognosis before Tuesday’s July 4th matinee against the Orioles was a renewed cause for concern.
It’s pretty simple. You can’t be optimistic about the Yankees’ October goals this season if the reigning MVP is worried about his ability to perform like one, and Judge wasn’t shy in detailing the hurdles still ahead of him.
He mentioned that surgery has been discussed, but indicated it wouldn’t be an option until the offseason. Judge also described a more ominous scenario where he’s affected by the toe well beyond 2023 — “I don’t think it will ever feel normal,” he said — which is not great news coming from a 31-year-old outfielder halfway through the first season of a nine-year deal.
“I think any injury, it takes a year, two years, three years,” Judge said. “And you still feel that. You never know what it’s going to feel like. I can’t see the future. So I’m just telling you how it is right now and what we got.”
Maybe this is just a classic case of Judge trying to under-promise and overdeliver. But once you hit 62 homers, and lap the field in nearly every offensive category as Judge did a year ago, there’s really no lowering the bar. There is doing what Judge does or forever being compared to the pinstriped Superman he used to be.
Judge seems to be wrestling with that conundrum right now. For every baby step forward, he’s quick to attach a disclaimer. As of Tuesday, Judge was up to long toss and hitting off a tee, but hedged that progress by emphasizing what he still couldn’t do.
“I gotta be able to run,” Judge said. “If I can run, then i can play. Me running at 10% ain’t going to help anybody out there.”
And despite those modest cage swings, Judge made it sound like he’s not close to loading up that back foot (and right big toe) for the demands of game-speed intensity. He may never fully get there by the end of this season.
“It’s the biggest factor,” Judge said. “Besides running, it’s me being able to put 270 pounds on one leg when I’m hitting. Once we build up that strength and get the pain out of there, then we’re going to be in a good spot. I kind of understand you’re going to deal with some pain coming back, so it’s just about getting to a point where it’s tolerable and we’re not setting ourselves back here.”
Judge didn’t cast any doubt on a return this season. But the pain-tolerance issue is not something to be taken lightly. DJ LeMahieu has been a shadow of his two-time batting champ self since suffering his own toe/foot injury a year ago and Judge is considerably larger, meaning more stress on that pivotal area.
LeMahieu declined to have surgery. It’s still on the (winter) table for Judge. But in the meantime, he’ll have to power through with orthotic inserts for his cleats to support the damaged toe joint and torn ligament. The question then becomes what percentage of Judge will the Yankees’ get? For this season’s second half and into the future?
“Obviously the rotation on that back foot and toe is important,” manager Aaron Boone said. “And he’ll know if he can do it at a level he needs to be able to do it at. That said, I think over the last couple of years that he’s gotten very good at playing with [injuries], whatever they may be. I feel like he’s done a really good job of understanding how to govern things and play through certain things that not everyone can. He has shown that ability.”
But what’s the Yankees’ ceiling if they’re faced with deploying a sub-optimal Judge? They’ve been in survival mode since his June 4 exit, relying on MLB’s best bullpen (2.82 ERA) to cover up for one of the worst offenses, but how long is that sustainable? Before Tuesday’s game, the Yankees’ .663 OPS was the third-worst in baseball during Judge’s absence, edging only the Pirates (.655) and Royals (.645). They were dead-last in batting average (.220) and averaged 3.8 runs per game.
At this rate, Boone & Co. can’t expect much more than staying afloat. The Judge-less Yankees are .500 (13-13) after Monday’s 8-4 victory, their second straight over the Orioles, put them within two games of the top wild-card spot owned by Baltimore. Where they go from here depends on how soon Judge gives a thumbs-up on an aching toe that is going to impact both him and the Yankees longer than anyone previously imagined
“I’ve been happy all year with the way we’ve competed,” Boone said after the win. “And it hasn’t been perfect.”
Judge apparently won’t be either, for quite some time — if ever. And Tuesday’s jolt of reality from the Yankees’ captain was the strongest dose yet.
David Lennon is an award-winning columnist, a voter for baseball's Hall of Fame and has covered six no-hitters, including two perfect games.
