NFL free agency predictions: Sam Darnold to Giants, Aaron Rodgers to . . . 

On the first day of free agency last year, the Eagles signed Saquon Barkley and Zack Baun, then later added Mekhi Becton, all of whom became key starters, standout players and ingredients in their eventual Super Bowl victory.

Well, it’s time to shuffle the deck of NFL players again. The open negotiating window starts Monday and the league’s calendar year begins on Wednesday. Who will go where and which team will be landing the parts that pay off next February? That’s what everyone will be watching and waiting to find out.

Many teams already have been busy securing their own would-be free agents with extensions (the Eagles did that with Baun), but plenty of talent will be hitting the open market.

Quarterbacks figure to again be the biggest prizes out there, with the Giants and Jets in search of answers at the position, but other teams are looking to upgrade at that spot, too.

There’s also sure to be some quiet decisions that don’t seem too impactful now but will create ripples come September and beyond.

Here, then, are some of the most intriguing free agents and predictions on where they might end up:

SAM DARNOLD, QB

How many millions of dollars did Sam Darnold cost himself by faceplanting down the stretch for the Vikings after a season in which he threw the fifth-most TD passes (35) and led the league in completion percentage on throws of 20 or more yards down the field (49.3%)? A better question is how many millions will his next team save on him because of it. The Giants — the team that opened last season against him and the Vikings — spent all of 2024 saying they needed to find the next Sam Darnold, assuming the real one would be too expensive. Well, turns out he might not be. And he is the only free-agent quarterback the Giants can sign with any true long-term aspirations, which would allow them to go into the draft looking for the best player available and not having to find a quarterback.

Prediction: Giants

JUSTIN FIELDS, QB

It’s easy to forget how young Fields is (he turned 26 on Wednesday) and how few true chances he has been given to succeed in the NFL. After starting the season steadily enough for the Steelers, though, he wound up behind Russell Wilson even when Wilson struggled later in the schedule.

That’s a bit of a red flag, but not enough to overshadow what he did when he actually played and what he might do with the right team around him.

Prediction: Jets

AARON RODGERS, QB

If he can stay healthy, he’s the best available quarterback in free agency, but no one has as big a caveat in regard to maintaining that health as Rodgers does. No one comes with as much baggage as he does, either.

The Giants definitely are interested, but why would Rodgers want to join them just to keep a seat warm for some rookie for half a season or so?

He’ll be much better off going someplace where he can be assured that the coaching staff and front office won’t face pressures internally or externally to bench him. The Raiders might have given him that, but not after they traded for Geno Smith. So now it may be back home to Northern California for him to replace Brock Purdy.

Prediction: San Francisco

D.J. REED, CB

Two teams that certainly know how valuable Reed can be for a defense are the ones that now employ the men who coached him with the Jets: The 49ers and the Falcons. Reed isn’t going to be the best cornerback on the market, but his value as a really solid second guy — as he was beside Sauce Gardner — means he could make a bigger impact on a roster than a player forced into a No. 1 role.

Prediction: San Francisco

JOSH SWEAT, EDGE RUSHER

There are a lot of big-name but aging edge rushers on the market, but no one comes into free agency hotter than Sweat. He took a pay cut to stick with the Eagles last season, and now comes the payoff. Sweat led the champs with 8.0 sacks in the regular season and a dominant 2.5 in Super Bowl LIX.

A lot of teams will be looking for defensive players to wreck games the way he can — Arizona, Atlanta, Carolina, to name a few — but only one will give him a chance to stay in the division and try to win another championship.

Prediction: Washington

CHRIS GODWIN, WR

When he dislocated an ankle in Week 7, Godwin was leading the league with 50 receptions. In other words, he was the Bucs’ No. 1 wide receiver even while they still had Mike Evans on the field.

Now he’s about to become someone else’s top target and possibly the key to allowing one of the still young and promising quarterbacks around the league to put some pelts on his wall.

Prediction: L.A. Chargers

BYRON MURPHY, CB

The cornerback signed a two-year free-agent deal with the Vikings in 2023 and lived up to it, becoming a Pro Bowler who can play inside and outside. Still just 27 and coming off a season in which he had career highs in interceptions (six) and tackles (81), he is primed for an even bigger contract.

Prediction: Green Bay

WILL FRIES, G

A broken leg early in 2024 paused the development Fries had been showing in recent years in Indianapolis — Pro Football Focus had him ranked as their fourth-best guard at the time of the injury with an 86.9 overall grade — but teams know he was on his way to becoming one of the top players at a position that is gaining in significance.

He’s not as massive as some other options like, say, Becton, but his sound technique makes up for it.

Prediction: Minnesota

DRE GREENLAW, LB

After suffering one of the oddest injuries (he tore his Achilles while jogging onto the field during Super Bowl LVIII) and playing just a little over a half of football in 2024, Greenlaw should be just about ready to return to his place as one of the league’s most productive linebackers. His old position coach, DeMeco Ryans, knows what he can do.

Prediction: Houston

By Tom Rock

tom.rock@newsday.com@TomRock_Newsday

Tom Rock began covering sports for Newsday in 1996 and became its NFL columnist in 2022. He previously was Newsday's Giants beat writer beginning in 2008.