Nothing's guaranteed, but Bucs need to win out to give themselves best shot to make the playoffs

TAMPA, Fla. — Tampa Bay's surest path to the NFL playoffs is a division championship.

The Buccaneers will need help to repeat in the NFC South, but only if they first and foremost give themselves a chance.

That means winning their remaining games at home against Carolina and New Orleans, while the Atlanta Falcons lose at least once in the final two weeks of the regular season.

The Bucs (8-7) and Falcons share the best record in the division, however Atlanta holds the tiebreaker after sweeping the season series between the teams.

Tampa Bay, which has won three consecutive division titles, is the only NFC team that has made the playoffs each of the past four seasons.

“We’ve got to take care of business or else we’ve got no shot,” quarterback Baker Mayfield said after a 26-24 loss at Dallas cost the Bucs control of the NFC South race.

“This one, we've got to take it on the chin,” Mayfield added. “It's a short week. It's Christmas week. We've got to focus on Carolina and figure out a way to win.”

If Atlanta is able to maintain its lead, Tampa Bay could make the postseason as a wild card if the Bucs win out and the Commanders lose twice.

Coach Todd Bowles sounds confident that his players understand the challenge ahead and will clean up mistakes that contributed to the end of their four-game win streak.

“We’ve got to win a ballgame (this week). If we don’t win a ballgame, we don’t give ourselves a chance,” Bowles said Monday.

“We have to focus on us like we’ve been doing,” the coach added. “We have to correct the mistakes, and we have to go out and win Sunday, and we’ve got to win the next week, and then we’ll see what happens after that.”

What's working

The offense, which ranks third in the NFL at 389.8 yards per game, isn't a fluke. Despite losing to the Cowboys, Tampa Bay finished with 410 yards total offense. It was the team's fifth straight game — as well as an NFL-high ninth overall — with 400-plus yards. The Bucs are seventh in rushing (143.7 yards per game) after ranking 32nd each of the past two seasons.

What needs helps

The defense yielded 292 yards passing against the Cowboys, 226 of it in the first half when Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb had six catches for 100 yards and a touchdown. Bowles said shoddy tackling was the biggest issue — not poor coverage. Lamb had one reception for 5 yards after halftime.

Stock up

Mayfield's chemistry with rookie WR Jalen McMillan, who has 27 receptions for 336 yards and five TDs, continues to grow. McMillan had five catches for 57 yards and a touchdown — his fourth in the past three games — against Dallas. He was also the intended receiver on Mayfield's deep throw that CB Jourdan Lewis intercepted in the end zone to help the Cowboys hold off the Bucs in the closing minutes.

Stock down

Turnovers were costly against Dallas. The end-zone interception stopped the Bucs from cutting into a 26-17 deficit with 6:22 remaining in the fourth quarter. Rachaad White's fumble with 1:31 left ended any hope for a last-minute victory. On both plays, defenders ripped the ball out of the grasp of the offensive player.

“We knew they were going to rake at the ball going into the ballgame," Bowles said. "We just have to have two hands on the ball, and we have to fight for it. We have to take better care of the football. That’s priority No. 1.”

Injuries

Bowles said it's too early to project the status of several starters for coming games, including S Antoine Winfield Jr. (knee), who has missed the past two games. TE Cade Otton (knee) and LB K.J. Britt (ankle) were inactive against the Cowboys, while reserve WR Sterling Shepard left during the game with a hamstring injury.

Key number

80. Bucky Irving leads all NFL rookie RBs with 920 yards rushing. He needs 80 over the next two games to reach 1,000. He scored his seventh rushing touchdown against Dallas. That tied Errict Rhett and Lars Tate for the second-most rushing TDs by a rookie running back in franchise history. Doug Martin set the record of 11 in 2012.

Next up

Host Carolina on Sunday.