NFL Championship Sunday picks: Who advances to Super Bowl LVIII?

Before the season, my Super Bowl prediction was Kansas City over Detroit. Now, both are road underdogs against top seeds Baltimore and San Francisco. Can it happen? Can the 2023 NFL season end the way it began, with the defending champs taking on the suddenly lovable Lions? Championship Sunday should produce a couple of close, fun games. Here's how I see both playing out:

AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: 

KANSAS CITY AT BALTIMORE RAVENS

TV: CBS, 3 p.m.

Baltimore by 3.5; O/U: 44.5

The Ravens have everything going for them: Home field, the presumptive MVP in Lamar Jackson, a defense that allowed the fewest points per game  and top-notch coaching at every level. They’ve been the NFL's most well-rounded team all season. But it’s what they don’t have that makes me think they’re going to fall short. That’s two-time Super Bowl champion Patrick Mahomes, who is moving up the greatest-of-all-time quarterback rankings faster than it took Jason Kelce to take his shirt off in Buffalo.

Mahomes fed off all of the “first road playoff start” talk last week and led Kansas City to a 27-24 win over Buffalo. Now he gets to be an underdog again, an unfamiliar spot for the defending champs, who are one win away from playing in their fourth Super Bowl in five years. That Mahomes is making his sixth straight appearance in the AFC Championship Game since taking over in 2018 is incredible. He’s 6-for-6 in the divisional round, and while he’s lost twice in the AFC title game, Mahomes, Travis Kelce and an elite defense (No. 2 in points allowed) appear to be more motivated than ever to become the first NFL dynasty since the early-aughts Patriots teams.

Kansas City had a “down season” by its standards, going 11-6 and not looking like its super self on offense. But that group is heating up at the right time, scoring 26 and 27 points (it would’ve been 34 if not for the touchback-rule fumble) the last two weeks. KC had eight plays of 20 yards or more in the divisional round and the defense held Buffalo to none.

The Ravens’ defense is a much tougher test — they kept C.J. Stroud and the Texans offense out of the end zone in eight quarters this season — but they’re not unbeatable. If it can rattle Mahomes like few teams have, that will be the difference. Jackson has a 2-3 career playoff record. Mahomes is 13-3. That experience can’t be overlooked, and Kansas City is in that rare spot where it has a championship team fueled by outside doubters. Will you really be surprised to see Mahomes and Andy Reid lifting another AFC championship trophy on Sunday night? I know I won’t be.

The pick: Kansas City (+3.5)

The score: Kansas City 26, Baltimore 23

NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: 

DETROIT LIONS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

TV: Fox, 6:30 p.m.

San Francisco by 7; O/U: 51.5

It’s the first pick in the 2016 draft vs. the last pick in the 2022 draft as Jared Goff’s Lions visit Brock Purdy’s 49ers. Purdy is no longer “Mr. Irrelevant,” and the Lions haven’t been this relevant since before either was born. With a win, Detroit will make its first trip to the Super Bowl. San Francisco, a five-time champ, is looking for its eighth appearance.

Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers have fallen short in the NFC Championship Game the last two years, but this one is in their building. Outside of a three-game skid after a 5-0 start, the 49ers were the class of the NFC all season. The status of receiver Deebo Samuel (shoulder) looms large: He was forced out of last week’s win, and it was no coincidence San Francisco lost three in a row when he was out.

Detroit has some injury concerns on the offensive line, but if it can protect Goff (564 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs in the playoffs), this is going down to the wire. Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs (go-ahead 31-yard TD run vs. Bucs last week) could be a wild card. So too could the Lions’ ability to pressure Purdy into mistakes, the way the Ravens did in a 4-INT game. He was off last week and was lucky the Packers dropped a potential game-changing pick-6.

If Purdy plays well, the 49ers are going back to the Super Bowl. If he doesn’t, Goff and Dan Campbell’s underdogs will be everyone’s favorites in Las Vegas.

The pick: Detroit (+7)

The score: San Francisco 28, Detroit 25

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.