NFL Divisional Round picks, scores for all four games

AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND GAMES

HOUSTON TEXANS AT BALTIMORE RAVENS,

Saturday 4:30 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Baltimore by 9.5; O/U: 43.5

Oh, look, the Texans are in the early Saturday game window again. When will people stop underestimating this team? (Wait, aren’t you the guy who picked the Browns to go to the Super Bowl?). Rookie sensation C.J. Stroud made his NFL debut at Baltimore in Week 1, a 25-9 Ravens win in which the Texans hung around early, trailing 7-6 at halftime. Stroud is a different quarterback now, and considering he’s essentially won back-to-back playoff games the last two weeks (remember, Houston’s Week 18 game at Indianapolis was a win-and-in scenario for both teams), the moment won’t be too big for him. While the Texans are off a 45-14 win, the Ravens could be a bit rusty, their starters having not played since Week 17. All the pressure is on MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, who is 1-3 in the playoffs. The last time the Ravens were in this situation — 1 seed, hosting a divisional round game as a big favorite — they lost to the sixth-seeded Titans, 28-12, four years ago. Jackson is a more complete player now, Baltimore’s defense is elite and that other Harbaugh brother is still one of the best coaches in the NFL. No upset this time, but that doesn’t mean Stroud and his underestimated teammates won’t show up and make this a game.

The pick: Houston

The score: Baltimore 30, Houston 24

KANSAS CITY AT BUFFALO BILLS, Sunday, 6:30 p.m., CBS

Buffalo by 2.5; O/U: 45.5

The most intriguing playoff storyline is upon us: Patrick Mahomes’ first road game in the postseason. Ever! Pretty remarkable considering this will be his 16th start in the playoffs, with the only three games away from Arrowhead Stadium being Super Bowls. When Buffalo beat Pittsburgh on Monday, Josh Allen and other players seemed excited to finally be facing their playoff nemesis in their home building. Almost a little too excited. Be careful what you wish for, guys. If there’s one thing I’ve learned in nine years of writing the NFL picks column, it’s to never underestimate Kansas City this time of year (wait, aren’t you the guy who picked the Dolphins to win last week?). Mahomes has won both playoff meetings vs. Allen, the last a 42-36 overtime thriller in which the Bills somehow didn’t win after scoring the go-ahead touchdown with 13 seconds left in the divisional round two years ago. Buffalo won the Week 14 matchup this year at KC, a controversial 20-17 win after Kadarius Toney was called for offside, negating an all-time great play by Travis Kelce that would’ve given the hosts the lead. Mahomes was so irate he even brought up the officials to Allen when the two met at midfield. That win gave the Bills a 7-6 record, and they haven’t lost since. This kind of feels like it could be their year, but Kansas City’s elite defense is the most underrated in football. Buffalo’s defense, already missing key players from earlier in the season, suffered more injuries on Monday and that could be a big factor against Mahomes and Kelce. Plus, the defending champs had two extra days of rest after Buffalo's game got pushed back a day. This is going to be another classic Buffalo-KC game, and while the Bills are happy to have it in their building, it may end in more heartbreak. Overtime, anyone?

The pick: Kansas City

The score: Kansas City 23, Buffalo 20 (OT)

NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND GAMES

GREEN BAY PACKERS AT SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS,

Saturday, 8:15 p.m, Fox

San Francisco by 9.5; O/U: 50.5

From a news judgment perspective, the main story of Green Bay’s 48-32 win at Dallas last week was about the hosts’ latest playoff flop. From a football perspective, the main story was Jordan Love, Aaron Jones and a Packers team that is heating up at the right time. So, can they keep it going against a tougher opponent this week, or will they be the latest upstart team to follow an upset win with a lopsided loss? The belief here is that the youngest team to win a playoff game since the 1970 merger is playing with house money and will cash in again . . . against the spread. It’s one thing to beat Dallas, but San Francisco is another beast and with the Cowboys and Eagles out, the 49ers have a clear path to Las Vegas on the second Sunday in February. They won’t be overconfident, not after the Packers became the first 7 seed to win a playoff game. Love has 21 touchdown passes to one interception over the last nine games (7-2) and Green Bay’s ability to pick up chunk plays and score points makes me think this could be a shootout. Kyle Shanahan’s offense has too many weapons, and if Brock Purdy plays like he did for most of the season, the 49ers will get it done. But it will be close.

The pick: Green Bay

The score: San Francisco 34, Green Bay 31

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS AT DETROIT LIONS,

Sunday, 3 p.m., NBC

Detroit by 6.5; O/U: 48.5

Wild Card Weekend featured five wins by double digits and Detroit’s 24-23 nail-biter over the Rams. It could be the opposite in the divisional round: three close games and a convincing Lions win. Detroit won the regular-season meeting, 20-6, at Tampa Bay in Week 6, and now it hosts the rematch in a building it went 7-2  this season. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs are a great story, but they could run into a buzz saw as the Lions got their first taste of playoff success in 32 years and are hungry to reach the franchise’s first Super Bowl. Detroit’s pass defense could give up some big plays like it did last week, but when it needed to buckle down, it did. Jared Goff (353 yards and 2 TDs in the first meeting), Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta will be too much for the Bucs. Dan Campbell’s aggressive nature vs. Todd Bowles’ conservative approach could also be a factor. Settling for field goals isn’t going to cut it against these Lions. Just ask the Rams.

The pick: Detroit

The score: Detroit 30, Tampa Bay 16

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.