5 NFL teams that will overachieve this season

DETROIT (O/U 9.5 WINS)

I'm all-in on this Lions team, which, outside of Kansas City, had the best ending to the 2022-23 season. That Week 18 win at Green Bay on Sunday night, the one that kept Aaron Rodgers and the Packers out of the playoffs, is the kind of win that even an eight-month layoff can't slow its impact. If Detroit had made the playoffs last year, it would've been one of those dangerous teams no one wanted to play. It will be the top dog in a Bizarro World NFC North (Lions, Bears trending up; Packers, Vikings trending down). Dan Campbell gets the most out of his players, and now the Lions have the talent to match the heart and grit. Jared Goff had a strong season last year, throwing to game-changing receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Detroit improved on both sides of the ball. Rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs, the 12th pick out of Alabama, is going to be a star, and former Bears back David Montgomery makes this an exciting backfield. Last year's knock on Detroit was its defense, especially the secondary, and that was addressed, too. These aren't your father's Lions. Expect to see them atop the NFC North and playing deep into the winter.

PREDICTION: 13-4

GIANTS (O/U 7.5 WINS)

I'm a big believer in Brian Daboll and his coaching staff, who did wonders last year in leading the Giants to a road playoff win. Some may expect a step back with a tougher schedule in Year Two, but Big Blue added playmakers and Daniel Jones is poised to take an even bigger step after signing his four-year, $160M deal. Darren Waller, Parris Campbell and Jalin Hyatt are going to make this offense a lot faster, and the defense is improved, too. The oddsmakers don't agree, which makes this over/under a steal. 

PREDICTION: 12-5

SEATTLE (O/U 8.5 WINS)

Like the Giants, Seattle isn't getting enough respect. Geno Smith earned it last year, and now the Seahawks should challenge San Francisco for the NFC West title. Smith already had one of the best 1-2 receiving punches in the league with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, and then Seattle drafted Ohio State star Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round. Second-round pick Zach Charbonnet, the running back out of UCLA, will form another strong 1-2 punch with Kenneth Walker III. Pete Carroll's defense is fast and improving, and the NFL's most energetic septuagenarian should have another fun season bouncing up and down the sideline.

PREDICTION: 12-5

BALTIMORE (O/U 10.5 WINS)

That noise you heard in the offseason was Ravens fans breathing a sigh of relief that Lamar Jackson and the team resolved their issues and he signed a big deal to stay. A happy and healthy Jackson could return to his 2019 MVP form, and the belief here is he will win that award again. After Baltimore signed Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted speedster Zay Flowers out of Boston College, Jackson said he wants to throw for 6,000 yards with all of these weapons. With RB J.K. Dobbins healthy, this could be the NFL’s most exciting offense.

PREDICTION: 12-5

CHICAGO (O/U 7.5 WINS)

Was this the best offseason in the Bears' 103-year history? Hyperbole, sure, but a refresher: They fleeced Carolina by trading away the No. 1 overall pick for a haul that included receiver D.J. Moore, giving Justin Fields a much-needed weapon in the passing game. They also added RB D'onta Foreman, TE Robert Tonyan, improved both lines and best of all, landed the most-coveted linebacker in free agency in Tremaine Edmunds. But biggest of all, they bid farewell to their "owner," Aaron Rodgers (24-5 all-time vs. Chicago). That alone was the franchise's biggest win in years. Look for Fields to have a breakout year with an improved roster and don't be surprised if Chicago is the NFC's final wild-card team.

PREDICTION: 10-7

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.