Newsday's NFL power rankings to start the 2023 season

1. Kansas City: Patrick Mahomes capped last season raising the Lombardi Trophy. Since then no other team has done anything to wrest it from his hands and usurp Kansas City as the team to beat. That doesn’t mean a third Super Bowl title in five years is automatic, but having the best QB in the game along with a strong veteran core, an injection of youth, and a Hall of Fame coach sure makes it feel close to inevitable. Kansas City won’t crumble, it’ll need to be toppled.

2. Cincinnati: A calf hasn’t held this much symbolism since Moses’ days on Mount Sinai, but it feels as if the entire hierarchy of the NFL is hinging on the health of Joe Burrow’s lower leg. The moment he went limping off the practice field in July nearly doomed the Bengals to a lost season. Assuming he’s back and, at some point soon, fully healthy, he and Ja’Marr Chase should make another run at a title.

3. San Francisco: No team has spent the last six months wondering "What if?" more than the 49ers, who lost in the NFC Championship Game after playing most of it without a functioning, healthy quarterback. Now they have a couple of them (Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold) to go with dynamic playmakers on offense. But the heart of this team is still its suffocating defense led by reigning player of the year Nick Bosa.

4. Philadelphia: After losing last year’s Super Bowl, the Eagles are running it back with pretty much the same team — minus its two coordinators — that shocked a lot of folks in 2022. There won’t be any surprises this time around. Jalen Hurts, who feels like he is in a perpetual state of having to prove himself, may have to be even better to get Philly back to the big game. Will the core veterans and elders on this team who seemed to be giving it one last heave-ho for the title a year ago have enough left to do it again?

5. Buffalo: This feels like a win-or-get-off-the-pot season for the crew from Western New York. Recent playoff disappointments have put much more pressure on the shoulders of Josh Allen, Sean McDermott and the rest of the Bills, so expect big changes if they come up short. Yes, they’re still the class of the AFC East, but not by as large a gap as they once seemed to be, so not even the postseason is assured for them. If they do get in, the conference is loaded with other contenders. They have the talent to navigate through all of that. Now it’s just a metter of seeing if they will.

6. Jets: The fuse has been lit on the Aaron Rodgers Experiment and it will either change a half-century of Jets futility or blow the franchise to smithereens.

7. Miami: The quirky head coach/QB combo in South Florida can work but they have to fight through the toughest division in football.

8. L.A. Chargers: Justin Herbert got the contract of a perennial playoff QB. Now he has to go out and become one.

9. Detroit: It’ll be tough to match the intensity from this team of 53 feisty Dan Campbell clones each week.

10. Dallas: Time and patience are running out for Dak Prescott to fulfill his Cowboys destiny.

11. Jacksonville: A lot of talent — on the field and in the coaching ranks — surrounds Trevor Lawrence as he preps for the Year Three Jump.

12. Seattle: A playoff team that very quietly got deeper and better on both sides of the ball, but was 2022 a breakout or a blip from Geno Smith?

13. Baltimore: It may take some time for Lamar Jackson to adjust to having so many passing options, but he should get there eventually.

14. Giants: This team won't be taken seriously until they show they can beat the Eagles and Cowboys in their own division.

15. Chicago: Did Justin Fields and D.J. Moore just become best friends? Yep.

16. Pittsburgh: Never put a Mike Tomlin-led team below the midline in these things. Remarkably, he's never had a losing season in 16 seasons leading the Steelers.

17. Cleveland: The roster is thick with talent but will the Browns finally get the Deshaun Watson they thought they were acquiring?

18. Minnesota: They won all 11 of their 2022 regular-season games decided by 8 points or fewer. It’ll be hard to replicate that again.

19. Tennessee: One last shot at a title run for the Titans with Derrick Henry carrying them.

20. New Orleans: Derek Carr goes from the third- or fourth-best QB in his former division to the top one in his new home.

21. Green Bay: Jordan Love has a good running game so he won’t have to be Aaron Rodgers … but it’d help if he was close.

22. Carolina: A really good defense might be enough to cover the inevitable mishaps as a rookie QB takes over.

23. New England: An actual offensive coach in his ear should help Mac Jones, but the QB and his team still feel limited.

24. Atlanta: Two of the most exciting young non-QBs in the league — RB Bijan Robinson and TE Kyle Pitts — leave it up to the revamped defense to make the Falcons soar.

25. Denver: Is ‘It can’t get worse than last year’ a viable team motto?

26. Washington: New ownership may spend the next few months wondering what exactly they got for their $6 billion.

27. L.A. Rams: Let this franchise be a warning to all others who sell their futures for a Super Bowl title.

28. Las Vegas: Hosting the Super Bowl on The Strip will be as close as this team gets to the postseason.

29. Tampa Bay: The Bucs after Tom Brady will look a lot like the Jets before Aaron Rodgers. Blech.

30. Indianapolis: Getting Anthony Richardson’s rookie lumps out of the way will be painful but should help the Colts down the road.

31. Houston: C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans will eventually prevail, just not this season.

32. Arizona: How many days until next April’s draft?

By Tom Rock

tom.rock@newsday.com@TomRock_Newsday

Tom Rock began covering sports for Newsday in 1996 and became its NFL columnist in 2022. He previously was Newsday's Giants beat writer beginning in 2008.