NFL power rankings: Tom Rock's picks heading into 2024 season
Clockwise from top left: Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes, Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts, Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Credit: AP
1. KANSAS CITY
Just when you think Patrick Mahomes and the crew have nothing left to prove to us or themselves, we put the carrot of being the first team to win three straight Super Bowls in front of them. That should be enough to drive this still talented and apparently hangover-proof team toward an astounding fifth Super Bowl appearance in six years.
2. DETROIT LIONS
This is a whole new world for the Lions, being the hunted and not the hunters. They’re going to get everyone’s best every week, but they have the players to handle it with Grade A lines on both the offense and defense, a confident quarterback, talented weaponry and a coach who will have them tuning out the optimism and chewing on the blue-collar grit that got them this far.
3. CINCINNATI BENGALS
The only team that has proven it can take down Kansas City when it counts, the Bengals’ biggest issue over recent years has been staying healthy. Joe Burrow and his blond buzz cut appear to be back but contractual realities may have this year being his last chance to win it all with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins hauling in his touchdown passes.
4. SAN FRANCISCO 49ers
The 49ers had to cancel a joint practice this summer because they didn’t have enough healthy players to participate. Is that good? Of course, two of their better talents spent most of camp locked up in the facility in a contract dispute. There is still a ton of ability but the good graces that have allowed them to stroll into late January have to run out at some point.
5. BALTIMORE RAVENS
He’s probably not the Derrick Henry of old, but even an old Derrick Henry is the type of addition who can change a team’s mentality and toughness. With him taking some of the attention off reigning MVP Lamar Jackson and a strong defense — even with Patrick Queen running off to a division rival — the road to the Super Bowl could go through Baltimore a second straight year.
6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Whatever relationship angst derailed the Eagles last season seems to have been resolved, and winning early will help bury those bad vibes even deeper. The addition of two premier play-callers in Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio should help settle things further. Expect Jalen Hurts to shine in a new offense that will have a new centerpiece in old nemesis Saquon Barkley.
7. BUFFALO BILLS
The Bills lost a lot of top-tier talent in the offseason and will again be without their top linebacker, Commack-born Matt Milano, for most of the season. Many expect a big drop-off in the results, but they still have the best quarterback in the league to never win an MVP award. That might change this year as more is put on Josh Allen’s plate . . . and he’ll devour all of it.
8. JETS
Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers walks outside of the locker room at Bank of America Stadium before an NFL preseason game against the Panthers on Aug. 17 in Charlotte, N.C. Credit: AP/Mike Stewart
They don’t need Aaron Rodgers to play like an MVP, they just need him to avoid getting any MRIs. Same for the offensive line, edge rushers, cornerbacks and offensive skill players. This is one of the most talented rosters in the league and should end the NFL’s longest streak of non-playoff seasons at 13 if they can stay out of the training room.
9. HOUSTON TEXANS
Yes, we had the Texans dead last a year ago. But we also said they were a year away from making real noise and now here we are! C.J. Stroud won a playoff game in his rookie year, and then the Texans became the first team in NFL history to add players coming off seasons with 10+ sacks (Danielle Hunter), 1,000+ rushing yards (Joe Mixon) and 100+ receptions (Stefon Diggs).
10. GREEN BAY PACKERS
A year ago, no one knew if Jordan Love could even hack it as the starter. Now he is one of the highest-paid quarterbacks in the league, all on the back of about two months’ worth of strong play. The Packers are a young team that still needs to fill out in order to fit into the franchise’s oversize legacy, but if they have the same growth spurt as Love, it won’t take too long.
11. MIAMI DOLPHINS
With their skill players, they’d win a Flag Football Super Bowl. Too bad there isn’t one.
12. DALLAS COWBOYS
Jerry Jones has a funny way of going “all-in.”
13. LOS ANGELES RAMS
Waiting to cue the Aaron Donald comeback rumors.
14. CLEVELAND BROWNS
If Nick Chubb (torn ACL) makes it back, he might carry the Browns deep.
15. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
Trevor Lawrence needs to have that big season.
16. CHICAGO BEARS
A much-improved team can’t possibly live up to all the hype. Or can it?
17. PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Shaky, recycled quarterback options make it hard to see them competing in the NFL’s toughest division.
18. LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
Justin Herbert missed the preseason (foot) and the team lost a lot of playmaking talent. Not a good start for Jim Harbaugh in his return to the NFL.
19. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Can second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson stay healthy this season?
20. MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Sam Darnold went from being a placeholder for J.J. McCarthy to the Vikings’ best chance at success in a hurry. First up: Season opener against the Giants at his old home, MetLife Stadium.
21. ATLANTA FALCONS
If Kirk Cousins can’t hack it, rookie Michael Penix Jr. can step in.
22. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Only Kansas City (9) and Buffalo (5) have longer playoff season streaks than the Bucs (4).
23. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Geno Smith: Back-to-back winning seasons.
24. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Don’t count the Saints out of the NFC South, but don’t count them in, either.
25. ARIZONA CARDINALS
Could this be the year Kyler Murray makes noise?
26. WASHINGTON
Should be fun to watch rookie QB Jayden Daniels grow.
27. GIANTS
Giants quarterback Daniel Jones rolls out of the pocket before throwing a pass in the first half of an NFL preseason game against the Texans on Aug. 17 in Houston. Credit: AP/Eric Gay
Daniel Jones opens the team’s 100th season as QB1, but who finishes it there? The team’s playmaking ability took a huge hit with the losses of Saquon Barkley to free agency and Darren Waller to retirement. Malik Nabers should pick up some of that slack but relying on a rookie receiver to save everyone’s jobs may not be the best plan.
28. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Antonio Pierce brings a lot of fire, but he still needs a QB.
29. CAROLINA PANTHERS
Nowhere to go but up after last year (and the years before that).
30. DENVER BRONCOS
Here’s a tip from experience: Do not play Zach Wilson under any circumstance!
31. TENNESSEE TITANS
It’s tough to win without a single easily identifiable trait.
32. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
The post-Bill Belichick Era will get off to a very bumpy start.
Tom Rock began covering sports for Newsday in 1996 and became its NFL columnist in 2022. He previously was Newsday's Giants beat writer beginning in 2008.
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