Pro Picks: London is calling the Jets and Vikings while 6 divisional matchups highlight Week 5

Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.

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The NFL kicks off its London schedule in Week 5 along with six division matchups.

Only the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and surprising Vikings remain unbeaten at 4-0. The underachieving Jaguars are the lone winless team yet they’re favorites this week.

Four teams have early byes at the near quarter-point of the season. The Cowboys-Steelers face off in a rivalry that goes back to two Super Bowls in the 1970s.

Pro Picks aims to rebound from a tough week against the spread that featured three half-point losses.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Line: Falcons minus 1 1/2

Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers (3-1) are rolling on offense but their defense still is missing All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr. and defensive tackle Calijah Kancey. Kirk Cousins still hasn’t found a rhythm with the Falcons (2-2). Atlanta’s offense could benefit from facing a banged-up defense on a short week. The Falcons have lost six of the past eight games against the Bucs and need a win at home if they hope to dethrone them in the NFC South.

FALCONS, 23-20

Arizona at San Francisco

Line: 49ers minus 7 1/2

Brock Purdy and the injury-depleted 49ers (2-2) host a team they’ve dominated recently. The Niners have won four straight in this series by an average margin of 22 points. The Cardinals (1-3) are off to a disappointing start and are 4-8 since Kyler Murray returned last season from an ACL injury.

BEST BET: 49ERS, 30-17

New York Jets vs. Minnesota, in London

Line: Vikings minus 2 1/2

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets (2-2) are coming off a terrible offensive performance in a loss to Denver. The team needs to be more disciplined after committing 15 penalties, including five false starts. New York’s defense presents a tough challenge for Sam Darnold, who leads the league with 11 touchdown passes. The Vikings (4-0) gave up 465 total yards last week, holding on for a 31-29 win in Green Bay after building a 28-0 lead. Maybe Rodgers will call Jordan Love for some tips on attacking Minnesota’s defense. Rodgers lost his only other game in London two years ago.

UPSET SPECIAL: JETS, 22-19

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Line: Ravens minus 2 1/2

Joe Burrow finally got the Bengals (1-3) on the winning track last week just in time for an important AFC North matchup. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the Ravens (2-2) have turned things around after opening with two losses. Henry, who had 350 yards rushing in Baltimore’s two wins, could have another big day against a defense that’s allowed 144.5 yards rushing per game. The Ravens are 4-1 against the spread in the past five vs. Cincinnati.

RAVENS, 27-23

Buffalo at Houston

Line: Bills minus 1

Josh Allen and the Bills (3-1) were blown out in Baltimore but are slight favorites against C.J. Stroud and the AFC South-leading Texans (3-1). It seems oddsmakers aren’t giving DeMeco Ryans’ team enough respect, though Houston didn’t play its best football over the first month. Texans receiver Stefon Diggs should be fired up to face his former team, which has suggested it doesn’t miss the four-time Pro Bowler.

BILLS, 23-21

Carolina at Chicago

Line: Bears minus 4

The Panthers (1-3) face the team they helped rebuild by trading a slew of assets for the No. 1 pick spent on now-benched QB Bryce Young. Caleb Williams hasn’t been spectacular for the Bears (2-2) but he got help from D’Andre Swift and the run game last week. They should have success against a depleted defense that lost linebacker Shaq Thompson for the season and won’t have fellow linebacker Josey Jewell this week. Andy Dalton, who started for Chicago in 2021, has improved Carolina’s offense and could help keep it close.

BEARS, 20-17

Cleveland at Washington

Line: Commanders minus 3 1/2

Jayden Daniels was the best rookie in September, leading the Commanders (3-1) to three straight wins while operating Kliff Kingsbury’s offense smoothly. The Browns (1-3) are back to their old losing ways after making the playoffs last season. Deshaun Watson is struggling and the defense, despite Myles Garrett’s best efforts, hasn’t dominated the way it did in 2023. They have to find a way to win or the season will be lost.

BROWNS, 22-20

Indianapolis at Jacksonville

Line: Jaguars minus 3

It’s not often an 0-4 team is favored but the Jaguars have more talent than their record indicates. Questionable coaching decisions and poor execution have contributed to blowing two leads in the second half. Doug Pederson, Trevor Lawrence and Co. better figure it out fast before they head to London for two games. The Colts (2-2) turned to Joe Flacco last week for a win but Anthony Richardson should be back from a hip injury. Jacksonville swept the season series last season and has won four of five.

JAGUARS, 24-18

Miami at New England

Line: Patriots minus 1

Even without Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins (1-3) have more talent than the Patriots (1-3). Coach Mike McDaniel has to find a way to use Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane no matter who is under center.

DOLPHINS, 20-16

Las Vegas at Denver

Line: Broncos minus 2 1/2

A stingy defense has helped Denver (2-2) to consecutive wins while the offense under rookie QB Bo Nix still finds its way. The Raiders (2-2) should have Maxx Crosby back this week, making life more difficult for Nix.

RAIDERS, 17-16

Green Bay at Los Angeles Rams

Line: Packers minus 3

Jordan Love’s turnovers — four interceptions in two games — are the only thing that have slowed Green Bay’s passing attack. The Packers (2-2) won’t have wideout Christian Watson because of an ankle injury. Injuries have plagued the Rams (1-3) and only the Panthers are giving up more points. Green Bay has won three straight in this series.

PACKERS, 27-20

New York Giants at Seattle

Line: Seahawks minus 6

Mike Macdonald’s defense was shredded by the Lions in Seattle’s toughest test so far. The Giants (1-3) present an easier challenge. The Seahawks (3-1) will outscore plenty of teams if Geno Smith plays the way he did against the Lions. Daniel Jones has been solid for New York, which had extra time to prepare for this one.

SEAHAWKS, 25-21

Dallas at Pittsburgh

Line: Steelers minus 2 1/2

Coming off his first loss for Pittsburgh (3-1), Justin Fields doesn’t have to worry about injured Cowboys pass rushers DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons. Dallas (2-2) also won’t have wideout Brandin Cooks and there hasn’t been much of a run game to help Dak Prescott. The Cowboys lead the series 17-16.

STEELERS, 23-22

New Orleans at Kansas City

Line: Chiefs minus 5 1/2

Derek Carr and the Saints (2-2) were unstoppable the first two weeks. Not anymore. The Chiefs (4-0) keep winning despite losing key players to injuries. They’ve still got Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and a strong defense.

CHIEFS, 20-16

Last week: Straight up: 10-6. Against spread: 6-10.

Overall: Straight up: 42-22. Against spread: 34-28-2.

Thursday: Straight up: 3-1. Against spread: 2-2.

Monday: Straight up: 3-3. Against spread: 2-4.

Best Bet: Straight up: 3-1. Against spread: 3-1.

Upset Special: Straight up: 4-0. Against spread: 4-0.