Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, wearing a WWE belt, celebrates...

Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes, wearing a WWE belt, celebrates the team's Super Bowl victory at a gathering in Kansas City, Mo., on Feb. 15. Credit: AP/Reed Hoffmann

(Odds From FanDuel, as of Thursday night)

SUPER BOWL REMATCH

PHILADELPHIA (8-1) AT KANSAS CITY (7-2)

TV: ESPN, ESPN2, ABC, Monday, 8:15 p.m.

Kansas City by 2.5; O/U: 45.5

The NFL knew what it was doing when it scheduled this game. Not only are both teams off a bye, but for good measure, they got an extra day of rest. You pull out all the stops for the Game of the Year, and that’s what this is as Philadelphia (5-2-2 ATS) and Kansas City (6-3 ATS) entered Week 10 as the No. 1 seeds. This won’t be as high scoring as last year’s 38-35 Super Bowl. You see, KC has an elite defense now, allowing the second-fewest points per game (15.9) and fourth-fewest yards (288.2). Patrick Mahomes (17 TDs, 8 INTs) has had a couple uncharacteristic games, but you can always count on him to show up. Another thing to bank on is Andy Reid after a bye: He is 29-4 in those spots, including the postseason. Jalen Hurts and the “Tush Push” play have been nearly unstoppable, but if KC can stay out of short-yardage situations, it won’t be a factor. This is a toss-up between the NFL’s best, but I can’t pick against Mahomes and the champs — I learned my lesson last February.

The pick: Kansas City

BEST OF THE REST

LOCK OF THE WEEK

LAS VEGAS (5-5) AT MIAMI (6-3), 1 p.m.

Miami by 12.5; O/U: 46.5

Fresh off its bye after the Germany loss to Kansas City, expect Miami to do what it does best: Run up the score against inferior teams. Yes, the Raiders are rejuvenated with Antonio Pierce replacing Josh McDaniels, but they won’t like Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel much either. The Dolphins are 4-0 straight up and against the spread at home with lopsided wins: 70-20, 31-16, 42-21 and 31-17. Las Vegas got a pair of nice victories over the Giants and Jets, but the “other” Vegas knows this is a mismatch.

The pick: Miami

PITTSBURGH (6-3) AT CLEVELAND (6-3), 1 p.m. (CBS)

Cleveland by 1.5; O/U: 32.5

This spread was Browns -4 before the news broke of Deshaun Watson being out for the season. That changes things, but this game will still be about the defenses. When the Steelers beat the Browns, 26-22, on MNF in Week 2, they did it without their offense entering the red zone. They can’t count on two defensive touchdowns again, but Mike Tomlin’s team continues to find ways to win without much offense. 

The pick: Pittsburgh

TENNESSEE (3-6) AT JACKSONVILLE (6-3), 1 p.m.

Jacksonville by 7; O/U: 40.5

When a good team (see: the Jaguars) has a bad game (see: last week’s 34-3 loss to the 49ers), you’ll more often than not see a strong showing in their next outing. Tennessee is 0-5 on the road (1-4 ATS) and that doesn’t include the London defeat when it was the “home” team.

The pick: Jacksonville

GIANTS (2-8) AT WASHINGTON (4-6), 1 p.m. (Fox)

Washington by 9.5; O/U: 36.5 

This is the “head-scratcher spread” of the week. Yes, the Giants are starting their third-string quarterback, but it’s basically the same defense that dominated just four weeks ago in a 14-7 win over Washington. Sam Howell has been sacked an NFL-high 47 times, including six by Big Blue. One of the few things I’ve gotten right this year is fading the Commanders as favorites: I’m 3-0, they’re 0-3.

The pick: Giants

SEATTLE (6-3) AT L.A. RAMS (3-6), 4:25 p.m.

Seattle by 1; O/U: 46.5

This is a toss-up game, but I’ll side with the hosts, who are off a bye and expect to have Matthew Stafford back. He torched the Seahawks in a 30-13 Week 1 win at Seattle. There isn’t that big of a gap between this 6-3 vs. 3-6 matchup, and Seattle could be looking ahead to hosting the 49ers on Thanksgiving night.

The pick: L.A. Rams

SUNDAY NIGHT

MINNESOTA (6-4) AT DENVER (4-5), 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Denver by 2.5; O/U: 42.5 (NBC, 8:20 p.m.)

From 0-3 and 0-3 to must-see TV. Only in the NFL. Denver, off a wild win at Buffalo on MNF, is winning with defense and an improved Russell Wilson. But as I wrote last week, I’m not betting against Joshua Dobbs. The Vikings have won five in a row (all covers) and have too much mojo to go against.

The pick: Minnesota

SHOW ME THE MONEYLINE!

Jets (+290) at Buffalo (4:25 p.m., CBS). In a week with multiple double-digit spreads — in addition to Miami, I like Dallas and San Francisco — there aren’t many games that scream “upset.” Taking the points is the safer play here, but if you’re feeling frisky, take a shot with the Jets (4-5) to win outright. The offense has scored eight touchdowns all season, and has yet to find the end zone since we changed the format to this picks page a couple weeks ago (11 quarters, plus an overtime). This pick is more about the Jets defense and the bumbling Bills, who just fired their offensive coordinator. At 5-5 and Josh Allen again leading the NFL in turnovers (14 after 19 in 2022), they are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs. All the pressure is on the hosts, and if it’s one thing the Jets excel at, it’s frustrating Allen. Jordan Whitehead picked him off three times in the Week 1 win. Buffalo hasn’t been the same after losing key defensive players. The Jets’ ‘D’ can steal one.

ANY TIME TD SCORER

De'von Achane (+110). The Dolphins expect the speedy running back to return on Sunday after missing the last four games. He had seven total touchdowns in his four games, and is a threat to score any time he touches the ball. The Raiders give up the fourth-most rushing yards per game (135.6), and the way Miami's offense has churned out yards and points at home this season, this wager can hit before you get comfortable on the couch. 

THE PROP SHOP

Josh Allen Under 241.5 Passing Yards (-114). That doesn't sound like a lot of yards at first glance, but considering the Bills' offensive situation, and Allen's recent history against the Jets, it may be tougher than you think for him to eclipse that number. The Broncos held Allen to 177 yards on MNF. In the Bills' Week 1 loss to the Jets, Allen threw for 236 — and that was on 29 completions. Last season, the Jets limited him to 205 and 147. This Jets defense is familiar with Allen. 

BET TO THE FUTURE

BEST REGULAR-SEASON RECORD: (49ERS, +950).

Philadelphia (+145), KC (+290) and Detroit (+460) are the top three favorites, but it’s worth taking a shot with the next team, San Francisco. Last year, the 49ers won 10 in a row to finish 13-4. Would you be that surprised if they won out to go 14-3? Last week, they looked like the team that started 5-0, not the one that went into the bye 5-3. Toughest games: Week 13 at Philly, Week 16 vs. Baltimore.

NFL WEEK 11 LINES

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-3.5)

Giants at Washington (-9.5)

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (-1.5)

Las Vegas at Miami (-12.5)

Tennessee at Jacksonville (-7)

Arizona at Houston (-4.5)

Dallas (-10.5) at Carolina

Chicago at Detroit (-7.5)

L.A. Chargers (-3) at Green Bay

Jets at Buffalo (-7)

Seattle (-1) at L.A. Rams

Tampa Bay at San Francisco (-11.5)

Minnesota at Denver (-2.5)

Philadelphia at Kansas City (-2.5)

STAFF STANDINGS AND PICKS

(against the spread; best bets in bold)

JOE MANNIELLO

(65-78-7 overall, 2-7-1 best bets)

Cincinnati, Giants, Pittsburgh, Miami, Jacksonville, Houston, Dallas, Detroit, L.A. Chargers, Jets, L.A. Rams, San Francisco, Minnesota, Kansas City 

TOM ROCK

(75-68-7, 8-2)

Baltimore, Giants, Pittsburgh, Miami, Jacksonville, Dallas, Detroit, L.A. Chargers, Houston, Jets, Seattle, Tampa Bay, Denver, Philadelphia 

AL IANNAZZONE

(75-68-7, 5-4-1)

Cincinnati, Giants, Pittsburgh, Miami, Jacksonville, Dallas, Chicago, L.A. Chargers, Arizona, Jets, Seattle, San Francisco, Denver,  Kansas City

KIMBERLY JONES

(64-79-5, 3-7)

Baltimore, Washington, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, Jacksonville, Dallas, Detroit, L.A. Chargers, Houston, Jets, Seattle, San Francisco, Denver, Philadelphia 

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