NFL Week 18 betting guide: Picks for games with playoff implications

GAME OF THE WEEK

BUFFALO BILLS (10-6) AT MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-5), 8:20 p.m., NBC

Buffalo by 3; O/U: 48.5

If you need further proof that the NFL is the most unpredictable, anything-can-happen league in sports, consider this: The Bills can be the AFC’s 2 seed with a win . . . and possibly be out of the playoffs with a loss. If they beat Miami, they’re AFC East champs. If they lose, and Pittsburgh and Jacksonville already won and the Houston-Indianapolis game didn’t end in a tie (got all that?), then they’d be out. Guess what? None of it will matter because Buffalo is not losing Sunday night. The Bills have won four in a row since their bye week and face a hobbled Dolphins team that just lost another star defender in Bradley Chubb. Plus, Josh Allen owns the Dolphins: 10-2 career record, including last year’s playoff win, with 34 touchdowns to seven interceptions. When Miami was flying high after its 70-point showing in Week 3, it lost, 48-20, at Buffalo the following week. It will be a wild-card team after this game as Buffalo earns its fourth straight AFC East title.

The pick: Buffalo

AFC GAMES

PITTSBURGH STEELERS (9-7) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (13-3), Saturday, 4:30 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Pittsburgh by 4; O/U: 35.5

Pittsburgh needs to win and get help to make the playoffs. Baltimore clinched the 1 seed and figures to rest starters. Still, Baltimore’s backups may be able to hang. The Steelers have played well with Mason Rudolph the last two wins, but let’s not forget how dysfunctional they’ve been all season. Do the Ravens really want to let one of their biggest rivals in, and then possibly see them again in two weeks? Also, Baltimore’s worst loss was at Pittsburgh when it had five drops (two for TDs). The Steelers are not a lock to win this game. 

The pick: Baltimore

HOUSTON TEXANS (9-7) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (9-7), Saturday, 8:15 p.m., ABC, ESPN

Houston by 1.5; O/U: 47.5

Give first-year coaches DeMeco Ryans and Shane Steichen credit for having their teams in this position. The winner is AFC South champ if Jacksonville loses on Sunday. Indianapolis won the first meeting, 31-20, in Week 2 when Gardner Minshew replaced Anthony Richardson (concussion). C.J. Stroud sustained his own in Week 14, and while he led an easy win over Tennessee last week, you can’t expect him to be the same record-setting rookie he was before the injury. Close one but give me more of that Minshew Magic as the Colts win their fourth straight at home and then root for the Titans on Sunday.

The pick: Indianapolis

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (9-7) AT TENNESSEE TITANS (5-11), Sunday, 1 p.m.

Jacksonville by 3.5; O/U: 40.5

All the pressure is on Jacksonville, which is AFC South champion with a win. Don’t think for a second Tennessee won’t be up for this game, a chance to end a disappointing season by keeping a rival out of the playoffs. The Jaguars snapped a four-game skid with a 26-0 cakewalk over two-win Carolina last week, but this will be anything but easy. Just look at the 2021 season finale: Indianapolis, needing a win to get in, was never in it in a shocking loss at two-win Jacksonville. Spoiler alert: Mike Vrabel’s underdogs win outright.

The pick: Tennessee

NEW YORK JETS (6-10) AT NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-12), 1 p.m., Fox

New England by 1.5; O/U: 30.5

It’s been a long season. Bad decision-making. Changing things on the fly. Not getting the results. But enough about my picks page! No two teams have brought me more agita against the spread than the Jets (4-11-1) and Patriots (5-11). To be clear, those are my personal records picking each of their games. Hey, at least it’s not as bad as 0-15, which is what the Jets are in their last 15 games against the Patriots. New England played Buffalo close last week, and with this possibly being Bill Belichick’s final game, can you really imagine the former HC of the NYJ losing to this franchise in his farewell? Me neither.

The pick: New England

NFC GAMES

DALLAS COWBOYS (11-5) AT WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (4-12), 4:25 p.m., Fox

Dallas by 13.5; O/U: 46.5

Detroit went for 2, and now it’s Dallas’ turn. Last week’s wild finish helped the Cowboys overtake the Eagles for the NFC’s 2 seed, and all they need to do is beat the hapless Commanders to secure at least two home playoff games at Jerry’s World (8-0 this season). Washington has lost seven in a row, including a 45-10 loss at Dallas on Thanksgiving.

The pick: Dallas

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-5) AT NEW YORK GIANTS (5-11), 4:25 p.m., CBS

Philadelphia by 5.5; O/U: 41.5

Quick, who’s the only team the Eagles have beaten since starting 10-1? Yep, the Giants, on Christmas Day, and even that one went down to the wire. Philadelphia went 1-4 in December, including last week’s 35-31 loss at home to three-win Arizona. My first thought was to take the Giants, who could relish the spoiler role. But I picked the Eagles in the first meeting, and whenever I switch teams in the rematch, I usually go 0-for-2.

The pick: Philadelphia

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (8-8) AT CAROLINA PANTHERS (2-14), 1 p.m.

Tampa Bay by 4.5; O/U: 37.5

Baker Mayfield & Co. have had too good of a season to let it go to waste against his former team in Carolina. The Bucs are NFC South champs with a win. But they still get it if they don’t cover, too, and Carolina could treat this like its Super Bowl.

The pick: Carolina

ATLANTA FALCONS  (7-9) AT NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (8-8), 1 p.m.

New Orleans by 3; O/U: 42.5

New Orleans is NFC South champ with a win and Tampa Bay loss. The Falcons beat the Saints, 24-15, in Week 12. New Orleans has been such an inconsistent team that it wouldn’t shock me if it followed up a great win at Tampa Bay with a dud when it needed it the most.

The pick: Atlanta

CHICAGO BEARS (7-9) AT GREEN BAY PACKERS (8-8), 4:25 p.m.

Green Bay by 3; O/U: 45

Green Bay is in with a win. When these teams met in Week 1, I was so confident this was going to be the Bears’ year that I made them my best bet. We all know how that went, and it’s easy to just pick Green Bay here as it has owned Chicago: nine straight wins and 14 of 15. But the Bears are a much-improved team since then, and like last year’s Lions keeping Aaron Rodgers out of the playoffs in the regular-season finale, could welcome the role of spoiler. It also could be Justin Fields’ last chance to show Chicago he’s a QB keeper.

The pick: Chicago

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-9) AT DETROIT LIONS (11-5), 1 p.m.

Detroit by 3.5; O/U: 45.5

The Vikings are still eligible for the playoffs but need lots of help after losing three straight. The Lions are still eligible for the 2 seed but need the Cowboys and Eagles to both lose. Neither scenario will happen, but you can count on Dan Campbell’s guys taking their anger out on last week’s ridiculous ineligible ruling in Dallas against a division rival. Detroit stays in the 3 seed and sets up a likely matchup against old friend Matthew Stafford in the wild-card round.

The pick: Detroit

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (8-8) AT ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-12), 4:25 p.m.

Seattle by 2.5; O/U: 47.5

Seattle needs a win and help to get a wild card but considering how these teams have played down the stretch, the Seahawks may need help just taking care of the first part of their playoff scenario.

The pick: Arizona

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.