NFL Week 5 betting lines and picks

As the leaves begin to fall, so too should our preconceived notions about NFL teams. Yes, it’s only four games, but you can learn a whole lot in a month. Like, for example, what was I thinking predicting the Giants would win the NFC East? Yikes.

That poor prognostication has carried over into a rough start picking games against the spread (ATS), but I feel good about this week’s card (famous last words, I know).

Underdogs went 8-8 ATS last week and are 33-28-3 for the season. 

My most confident picks ATS this week are all AFC East teams: Buffalo, Miami and the Jets. There’s no true “stay away” game. This is also the first week of byes, so you won’t see Cleveland, the L.A. Chargers, Seattle or Tampa Bay on NFL RedZone.

GAME OF THE WEEK

DALLAS (3-1) AT SAN FRANCISCO (4-0)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

San Francisco by 3.5; O/U: 45

This was supposed to be 4-0 vs. 4-0, but Dallas’ desert debacle in Week 3 ruined that. It should still live up to the hype, as the longtime playoff rivals meet for the third straight season (the 49ers beat the Cowboys in the postseason the last two years). Dallas (3-1 ATS) is one of only a handful of teams that has the roster to go toe-to-toe with San Francisco (3-0-1 ATS), but the 49ers have had their number the last two years and they’re just too physical, too fast, too talented all over to pick against them at home. The 49ers have scored 30, 30, 30 and 35 points in their first four games, and touchdown machine Christian McCaffrey is breaking Jerry Rice’s records. San Francisco has won 14 regular-season games in a row.

The pick: San Francisco

LOCK OF THE WEEK

BUFFALO (3-1) VS. JACKSONVILLE (2-2), in London

TV: NFL Network, 9:30 a.m.

Buffalo by 5.5; O/U: 48.5

If this game was in Jacksonville and not London, maybe the Bills would have a letdown like they did in 2021 when Josh Allen’s Jaguars shocked Josh Allen’s Bills, 9-6. On a big stage, expect Buffalo to bring it after a statement win over Miami. Jacksonville has an advantage in that it is playing back-to-back games across the pond, an NFL first, but that will feel like a footnote when Allen and Stefon Diggs go up and down the field and the defense dominates. This Bills team is just rolling: 38-10, 37-3, 48-20 wins after the Week 1 overtime loss to the Jets.

The pick: Buffalo

1 p.m. Games

GIANTS (1-3) AT MIAMI (3-1)

TV: Fox

Miami by 11.5; O/U: 47.5

What happens when the NFL’s worst tackling team faces the NFL’s fastest offense? Well, it won’t be 70-20 like Dolphins-Broncos, but you get the idea. Not only are the Giants traveling on a short week after an embarrassing MNF loss, but they face a Dolphins team that just got hum-Bill’d in Buffalo, 48-20. The Giants look nothing like last year’s well-coached team, and this is another bad matchup for them. Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane can run up the score. How’s 42-17 sound?

The pick: Miami

NEW ORLEANS (2-2) AT NEW ENGLAND (1-3)

New Orleans by 1; O/U: 39.5

Put their abbreviated team names together and it basically spells out their offensive production: NONE. The 27th and 30th scoring offenses totaled just 12 points last week. The Patriots lost two of their best defensive players in Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez, but I’m still backing the hosts because the last time they lost by 35 points in the Bill Belichick era, they . . . oh, wait, it’s never happened before.

The pick: New England

CAROLINA (0-4) AT DETROIT (3-1)

Detroit by 10; O/U: 44.5

In the three games started by rookie Bryce Young, Carolina scored 10, 17 and 13 points, and its TD last week was on a pick-6. The Lions are firing on all cylinders, and this just feels like a 31-10 kind of game.

The pick: Detroit

BALTIMORE (3-1) AT PITTSBURGH (2-2)

Baltimore by 4.5; O/U: 38

2023 suggests the Ravens will win, cover and improve to 3-0 in road divisional games. Recent history also says the whole covering thing won’t be that easy. The AFC North rivals split last year’s games, 16-14 and 16-13, and the four games before that were decided by 3, 1, 5 and 4 points. The Steelers’ offense is a mess, but Mike Tomlin’s team should show up in another close finish.

The pick: Pittsburgh

HOUSTON (2-2) AT ATLANTA (2-2)

Atlanta by 1.5; O/U: 41.5

Houston beat Jacksonville by 20 and Pittsburgh by 24, so it’s tempting to roll with the hot hand of C.J. Stroud, who is just the sixth quarterback to average 300 yards passing with no interceptions through the first four games in a season. The other five? Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Atlanta, on the other (cool) hand, has scored 6 and 7 points the last two weeks. It’s all about matchups, though, and the Falcons should be able to get Bijan Robinson and the running game going at home against this Texans defense.

The pick: Atlanta

TENNESSEE (2-2) AT INDIANAPOLIS (2-2)

Tennessee by 2.5; O/U: 42.5

Tennessee followed up its 27-3 loss at Cleveland with its own 27-3 win over Cincinnati. This league! This will be as tight as the “everyone’s 2-2” AFC South race, so give me the more experienced team with the proven coach and Derrick Henry.

The pick: Tennessee

4 p.m. Games

JETS (1-3) AT DENVER (1-3)

TV: CBS

Denver by 2; O/U: 43.5

This is such a great matchup for Zach Wilson and the Jets. A week after outplaying Patrick Mahomes (I can’t believe I just typed those words), Wilson’s confidence must be at an all-time high. He already knows what it feels like to win at Denver, something he and the Jets did last year. Now he gets to face the worst defense in the NFL after having to deal with upper-echelon units in Buffalo, Dallas, New England and Kansas City. Denver doesn’t get after the quarterback, so Wilson will have more time than usual to throw. Look for Breece Hall to have a big game in his return to the scene of last year’s season-ending injury, and then there’s the whole Nathaniel Hackett vs. Sean Payton payback angle. Is it obvious I really like the Jets this week?

The pick: Jets

KANSAS CITY (3-1) AT MINNESOTA (1-3)

Kansas City by 3.5; O/U: 52.5

After getting upstaged by a pair of blondes on SNF, expect Patrick Mahomes to be his super self. Minnesota is the king of the one-score game (11-0 in the regular season last year, 1-3 this year), and it has the offensive firepower to match KC early. The champs’ defense is better than in years past, though, and should make enough stops to cover.

The pick: Kansas City

PHILADELPHIA (4-0) AT L.A. RAMS (2-2)

Philadelphia by 4.5; O/U: 49.5

The Eagles are 4-0 for the second straight season but they don’t look as dominant as last year. Matthew Stafford and record-setting rookie receiver Puka Nacua (39 catches and 501 yards, the most ever for a player’s first four NFL games) present a tough matchup for a struggling Eagles secondary. Cooper Kupp is eligible to return to the Rams, too. The Eagles should win, but this number is a couple points too high on the road against a feisty Rams team that is playing better than most expected.

The pick: L.A. Rams

CINCINNATI (1-3) AT ARIZONA (1-3)

Cincinnati by 3; O/U: 44.5

If I had told you before the season that one of these teams would have not scored a first-half touchdown one month in, you wouldn’t have thought it could possibly be the Bengals. But here they are, their offense limited because of Joe Burrow’s lingering calf injury. That said, they can’t start 1-4, right? Right?

The pick: Cincinnati

MONDAY NIGHT

GREEN BAY (2-2) AT LAS VEGAS (1-3)

TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

Las Vegas by 1; O/U: 44.5

If there’s any team that could use the extra-extra rest (TNF to MNF), it’s the hurting Packers. After getting embarrassed at Lambeau by the Lions, they get another prime-time opportunity against a Raiders team that, outside pf former Packers great Davante Adams, doesn’t pose a big threat.  

The pick: Green Bay

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.