NFL Week 6 betting lines, odds and picks

If there’s one thing that has stood out this NFL season more than last, it’s this: There are a lot of bad teams. More than half the league (17 teams) are at or below .500, and really only a handful of teams appear to have a legitimate shot at winning the Super Bowl. But the point spread is the ultimate equalizer when making picks. 

Underdogs went 5-9 against the spread (ATS) last week but are 38-37-3 for the season.

My most confident picks ATS this week are San Francisco, Dallas and Buffalo. Stay away from the New England-Las Vegas game and be careful with Detroit-Tampa Bay, which was flexed out of the 1 p.m. window.

THE LOCALS

PHILADELPHIA (5-0) AT JETS (2-3)

TV: CBS, 4:25 p.m.

Philadelphia by 7; O/U: 41

If the Jets can find a way to finally beat the Eagles (0-12 all-time), they go into the bye at 3-3,  then face the Giants next. All of a sudden, they’re in the playoff mix and dreaming of Aaron Rodgers returning in January. Now for the reality: The Eagles, while not as dominant as last year, are still 5-0, just held the Rams to 14 points and have a defensive line whose edge got even more significant with the loss of the Jets’ best offensive lineman, Alijah-Vera Tucker. The Jets’ offense has played better of late but still struggles in the red zone. That won’t cut it against Jalen Hurts and his “Brotherly Shove” teammates, who have scored at least 23 points each week so far. .

The pick: Philadelphia

GIANTS (1-4) AT BUFFALO (3-2)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

Buffalo by 14.5; O/U: 44.5

Take away the 31 points the Giants scored in the second half at Arizona and they’ve scored . . . 31 points in their other nine halves. It adds up to a whole lot of lopsided scores, and this should be another one. Buffalo had a miserable trip to London in which it lost more key defensive players, but something like 34-10 still seems likely here.

The pick: Buffalo

LONDON GAME

BALTIMORE (3-2) VS. TENNESSEE (2-3)

TV: NFL Network, 9:30 a.m.

Baltimore by 4; O/U: 41.5

A day after giving away a win at Pittsburgh — the Ravens dropped seven passes, two that would've went for touchdowns — Baltimore headed to London. Coach John Harbaugh told reporters the team left on Monday because when they left on a Thursday six years ago, they lost, 44-7. This one is a simple “don’t overthink it.”  Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are the more talented team and coming off a bitter defeat. Tennessee — which left Thursday —  is 0-3 on the road (even if they are the “home” team this week).

The pick: Baltimore

1 p.m. GAMES

SEATTLE (3-1) AT CINCINNATI (2-3)          

Cincinnati by 2.5; O/U: 44.5

The Bengals have been the most difficult team to predict because of Joe Burrow’s calf injury. It didn’t seem to bother him in last week’s 34-20 win at Arizona as he and Ja’Marr Chase connected 15 times, three for touchdowns. Seattle is off a bye and this is a toss-up, but its pass rush is being overvalued from that 11-sack game against the Giants. Plus, the Seahawks' pass defense is third-worst in the league.

The pick: Cincinnati

LOCK OF THE WEEK

SAN FRANCISCO (5-0) AT CLEVELAND (2-2)

San Francisco by 9.5; O/U: 35.5

The 49ers have won 15 regular-season games in a row. They’re averaging 33.4 points per game this season and have outscored opponents, 167-68, after demolishing Dallas, 42-10. Brock Purdy is 10-0 as a starter in the regular season. What I’m basically getting at is, does it even matter who or where they’re playing at this point?

The pick: San Francisco

CAROLINA (0-5) AT MIAMI (4-1)

Miami by 13.5; O/U: 47.5

Another week, another huge spread for the Dolphins at home. This could easily be another Miami cover, but something to consider: The Dolphins almost looked bored at times in last week’s 31-16 win over the Giants, and with next week’s SNF matchup at Philadelphia looming, maybe they’ll take their foot off the gas in the second half.

The pick: Carolina

INDIANAPOLIS (3-2) AT JACKSONVILLE (3-2)

Jacksonville by 4.5; O/U: 44.5

This is the first NFL rematch of the season (the Jaguars won, 31-21, in Week 1). Gardner Minshew, stepping in at QB for the Colts, faces his old team. The Jaguars are 2-0 in London and 0-2 in Jacksonville. There could be a letdown after the big win over Buffalo.  With the first meeting being competitive and with both teams 3-2, I’ll take the points.

The pick: Indianapolis

NEW ORLEANS (3-2) AT HOUSTON (2-3)

New Orleans by 1.5; O/U: 42.5

Don’t make too much out of the Saints’ 34-0 win at New England. That was more of a Patriots thing. C.J. Stroud (NFL-record 186 pass attempts without an interception to start a career) and DeMeco Ryans look as if they’ve been doing this for years, and the No. 2 overall pick and first-year coach can lead a home rebound after a last-second loss at Atlanta.

The pick: Houston

WASHINGTON (2-3) AT ATLANTA (3-2)

Atlanta by 2.5; O/U: 42.5

Every Falcons game has featured a spread right around a field goal, and two of their three home wins were by 1 and 2 points. This will be close, too, as the Commanders are desperate to erase a three-game skid after last week’s TNF dud. Give me the team with the quarterback who has never lost a home game: Desmond Ridder is 5-0 in Atlanta after going 26-0 in college (Cincinnati).

The pick: Atlanta

MINNESOTA (1-4) AT CHICAGO (1-4)

Minnesota by 3; O/U: 43.5

Can the Bears win two in a row after losing 14 straight? Justin Fields has thrown 4 TD passes in back-to-back games, the last in a 40-20 win at Washington on TNF. He could use his legs more against the blitz-happy Vikings, who will not be the same team offensively without star receiver Justin Jefferson.

The pick: Chicago

4 p.m. Games

DETROIT (4-1) AT TAMPA BAY (3-1)

Detroit by 3; O/U: 42.5

With offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s mind and coach Dan Campbell’s passion, these Lions are a perfect blend of smart and heart. Tampa Bay is off a bye and its defense can keep this close. In a battle of former No. 1 overall draft picks, I trust Jared Goff more than Baker Mayfield.

The pick: Detroit

NEW ENGLAND (1-4) AT LAS VEGAS (2-3)

Las Vegas by 2.5; O/U: 41.5

Last week I picked the Patriots because I figured they’d show up after a 35-point loss at Dallas. So now what after they were a no-show in a 34-0 loss at home to New Orleans? This is the NFL, and crazier things have happened (Google the finish to last year’s Patriots-Raiders game, for example), but let’s roll the dice in Vegas one more time that Bill Belichick doesn’t fall to 0-3 against former OC Josh McDaniels.

The pick: New England

ARIZONA (1-4) AT L.A. RAMS (2-3)

Los Angeles by 7; O/U: 48.5

When you pick every game every week for nearly a decade, you remember certain trends. Near the top of my list: Sean McVay owns the Cardinals. The Rams coach started out 8-0 vs. Arizona and is now 11-2. The 2023 Cardinals are a feisty bunch, but Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp will bounce back from last week’s 14-point effort against the Eagles.

The pick: L.A. Rams

MONDAY NIGHT

DALLAS (3-2) AT L.A. CHARGERS (2-2)

TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

Dallas by 2.5; O/U: 50.5

Dak Prescott said of the Cowboys’ 42-10 loss at San Francisco: “This may be the most humbling game I’ve ever been a part of.” Now, for the good news: Dallas has a prime-time opportunity to remind a national audience it is still a contender. The Chargers, off a bye, are contractually obligated to play close games, it seems. Game within the game: Mike McCarthy vs. his old play-caller, Kellen Moore, now OC of the Chargers.

The pick: Dallas

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.