NFL Week 7 odds, betting lines and picks against the spread

Any. Given. Sunday. It's not just the title of the most realistic football movie ever made. It's a cliche that rings true for the NFL, as evidenced by last week's double 5-0 takedown of the then-undefeated 49ers and Eagles by big underdogs in the Browns and Jets. The Giants, the biggest underdogs of the week, almost gave us a third major upset.  

, Still, underdogs went 5-10 against the spread (ATS), their second straight poor week dropping them to 43-47-3 for the season.

My most confident picks ATS this week are Tampa Bay, the L.A. Rams, Detroit and Kansas City. Stay away from Las Vegas-Chicago.

(Odds from FanDuel)

GAME OF THE WEEK

MIAMI (5-1) AT PHILADELPHIA (5-1)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

Philadelphia by 2.5; O/U: 51.5

Speaking of ’90s movies, this is a “Super Bowl rematch” from the cult classic “Ace Ventura: Pet Detective.” Bring the popcorn for what has the makings of a three-hour thriller. Jalen Hurts just played the worst game of his NFL career, so it’s natural to think he and the Eagles will bounce back. But something doesn’t feel right about this Philly offense, as Hurts already has one more interception (7) than all last season. The Eagles could be without right tackle Lane Johnson, one of the game’s best offensive linemen. They’ve also had injuries to the secondary, and that’s the real concern against this explosive Dolphins offense, which covered last week as 13.5-point favorites despite falling behind 14-0 in their 42-21 win over Carolina. The Eagles’ elite pass rush can be negated by Tua Tagovailoa’s ability to get the ball out so fast to playmakers Tyreek Hill (814 receiving yards and 6 TD catches are both tops in the NFL), Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert (NFL-best 11 TDs). Miami failed its biggest test in Week 4, a 48-20 loss at Buffalo, and yes, the Eagles will be a tough foe off a bad loss, but they don’t have the pieces to stop Mike McDaniel’s record-setting offense. Dolphins 31, Eagles 27? Alrighty then!

The pick: Miami

1 p.m. Games

WASHINGTON (3-3) AT GIANTS (1-5)

TV: CBS

Washington by 3; O/U: 37.5 

Give the Giants credit for a gutsy performance at Buffalo, a game they probably should’ve won if not for a pair of goal-line controversies. Despite the defense’s improvement, this pick is about the other defense. The Commanders’ biggest strength is their defensive line, and it should win often against the Giants’ pieced-together, “straight off the couch” offensive line. Looking back at last week, I should’ve taken Washington, a good spot for a bounce-back win after the TNF debacle. But hindsight is 20-20, which was also the score when these NFC East rivals last met at MetLife. It will be another close one, but as has often been the case, the Giants will fall short.

The pick: Washington

BUFFALO (4-2) AT NEW ENGLAND (1-5)

Buffalo by 8.5; O/U: 40.5

Being on the wrong side of 38-3 and 34-0 Patriots losses is one thing, but last week’s 21-17 defeat at Las Vegas was the real bad beat: New England, down 19-17 late as 2.5-point underdogs, had the cover locked up until Mac Jones took a late safety. That might be the last time I back the Pats, whose first TD last week was their first in 40(!) drives. Buffalo, once the Pats’ patsies, is 6-1 vs. New England since Tom Brady left, with five of the wins by double digits.

The pick: Buffalo

DETROIT (5-1) AT BALTIMORE (4-2)

Baltimore by 3; O/U: 43.5

The Lions (5-1 ATS) have won 13 of their last 16 regular-season games. They’ve run into some injury trouble, with David Montgomery hurt last week, but rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs is expected to return. Dan Campbell’s Lions continue to show they can win in different ways, and the defense (No. 1 against the run at 64.7 yards per game) could be the difference again as the Ravens’ offense has red-zone issues. After back-to-back road games in Weeks 4 and 5, Baltimore spent a full week in London. All that travel could catch up to them.

The pick: Detroit

LOCK OF THE WEEK

ATLANTA (3-3) AT TAMPA BAY (3-2)

Tampa Bay by 2.5; O/U: 37.5

The Bucs have shown they can’t hang with the NFC’s best (double-digit losses to Philadelphia and Detroit), but they can beat the rest (wins over Minnesota, Chicago and New Orleans). Desmond Ridder has shown he can’t be backed on the road: 0-4 for his career, including 0-2 this year in which Atlanta has scored 6 and 7 points, respectively. The Bucs can stop the run (eighth best at 83.8 yards per game) and make Ridder try and beat them.

The pick: Tampa Bay

CLEVELAND (3-2) AT INDIANAPOLIS (3-3)

Cleveland by 3; O/U: 40.5

If you are a believer in the letdown theory, fade the Browns after last week’s shocking 19-17 win over the 49ers. The only issue is Cleveland’s No. 1-ranked defense won’t let up. (For what it’s worth, I’m 0-6 picking Colts games. I back them, they don’t cover; I pick against them, they do.)

The pick: Cleveland

LAS VEGAS (3-3) AT CHICAGO (1-5)

Las Vegas by 2.5; O/U: 37.5

Six teams are on the bye. If only we could use a bye from picking this battle of backup quarterbacks. The Raiders probably shouldn’t be road favorites anywhere, but then again, home underdogs are 15-19-2 ATS.

The pick: Las Vegas

4 p.m. Games

L.A. CHARGERS (2-3) AT KANSAS CITY (5-1)

TV: CBS

Kansas City by 5.5; O/U: 47.5 

The Chargers always play close games, and that includes a pair of three-point losses to Kansas City last season. This is the best KC defense Justin Herbert will face, though. After KC’s lackluster 19-8 win over the Broncos on TNF, expect Patrick Mahomes to have a big day against the Chargers’ NFL-worst passing defense (289 yards per game). Other reasons to back the hosts: KC is off a mini bye, and L.A. just played on Monday night. Oh, and KC has won 12 divisional games in a row.

The pick: Kansas City

PITTSBURGH (3-2) AT L.A. RAMS (3-3)

TV: Fox

L.A. Rams by 3; O/U: 43.5

Don’t be fooled by the Steelers’ record, which easily could be 1-4 if a play or two didn’t go their way against the Browns and Ravens. Sure, you can say that about multiple teams, but the offense totaled just one touchdown in those two wins. Pittsburgh is off a bye and will have a home-field feel on the road, but offensive coordinator Matt Canada and quarterback Kenny Pickett can’t be trusted. Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford can be, especially with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, have favorable matchups against the Steelers’ secondary (eighth worst against the pass).

The pick: L.A. Rams

ARIZONA (1-5) AT SEATTLE (3-2)

Seattle by 7.5; O/U: 44.5

This game script is likely to follow the last two losses for Arizona (34-20 vs. Cincinnati, 26-9 at L.A. Rams): The underdog Cardinals overachieving in the first half only to see the more talented team run away with the win — and cover — in the second half.

The pick: Seattle

GREEN BAY (2-3) AT DENVER (1-5)

Green Bay by 1.5; O/U: 45

Unless Brett Favre and John Elway helicopter into the stadium in their prime, this Super Bowl XXXII rematch isn’t that exciting with Jordan Love and Russell Wilson. The Packers, so used to elite QB play with Favre and Aaron Rodgers, are on the other side of things now with Love struggling. Green Bay must love this setup, though: Two weeks to get healthier and prepare for the NFL’s worst defense.

The pick: Green Bay

MONDAY NIGHT

SAN FRANCISCO (5-1) AT MINNESOTA (2-4)

TV: ESPN, ESPN2, 8:15 p.m.

San Francisco by 7: O/U: 44 

Turns out the 49ers’ kryptonite was the Browns’ defense . . . and me picking them as my lock of the week. It also didn’t help that their two best offensive players in Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel left the game. Even if they play, they won’t be 100%, so this spread feels a couple points too high on the road.

The pick: Minnesota

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.