NFL Week 8 odds, betting lines and picks against the spread

There are no teams on a bye this week, but that doesn’t mean we can’t talk about the topic. Backing teams after their bye makes sense. With an extra week to prepare, they should have an advantage. But so far, those teams are 2-4 both straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). The six teams who were on a bye last week: Carolina, Cincinnati, Dallas, Houston, the Jets and Tennessee.

The other angle: Taking teams heading into a bye because there’s added incentive to go out  on a high note. In those instances, teams are both 8-4 SU and ATS. The four teams on a bye next week: Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville and San Francisco.

Underdogs went 9-4 ATS last week and are 52-51-3 for the season.

My most confident picks ATS this week are Houston, Detroit, Chicago and Kansas City. Despite a full slate of 16 games, there isn’t a true “stay-away game.”

(Odds courtesy of FanDuel; as of Thursday, 7 p.m.)

1 p.m. Games

JETS (3-3) AT GIANTS (2-5)

TV: CBS

Jets by 3; O/U: 36.5

This game looks a lot more intriguing than it did a few weeks ago, right? The Giants’ defense has stepped up (21 total points allowed the last two games) and the offense finally found the end zone last week. But let’s face it: At 2-5, they’re not making the playoffs. The 3-3 Jets? It’s all there for the taking. After the Giants, it’s the Chargers and Raiders and if you look at the schedule, 10 wins and a wild-card berth is realistic. But they can’t lose this game. Which is why the bye week couldn’t have come at a better time after their thrilling upset over the Eagles. It allowed the Jets to cool down for a week, return and put all their focus on their MetLife roommates. After forcing Josh Allen (3), Jalen Hurts (3) and Patrick Mahomes into a total of eight interceptions, the Jets’ defense should easily handle whoever starts at quarterback for the Giants. Linebacker Quincy Williams is poised for another monster game. Zach Wilson will again benefit from having Aaron Rodgers in the building. Let’s call it Jets 20, Giants 10.

The pick: Jets

PHILADELPHIA (6-1) AT WASHINGTON (3-4)

Philadelphia by 7; O/U: 43.5

Home underdogs went 6-0 ATS in Week 7, with five winning outright. One was the Giants, who topped an enigmatic Commanders team that took the Eagles to overtime (34-31 loss) in Week 4 only to lose by 20 at home to the Bears four days later. Philly won’t take them lightly after the first scare.

The pick: Philadelphia

L.A. RAMS (3-4) AT DALLAS (4-2)

Dallas by 6.5; O/U: 45.5

In last season's matchup, the Rams were 5.5-point home favorites and it was puzzling because their offense was struggling and Dallas’ defense was not (the Cowboys won, 22-10). Now, it’s the opposite: I don’t get why this spread is over a touchdown with a sputtering Dallas offense and a team possibly looking ahead to next week at Philadelphia. The Rams can score in the mid-20s to cover.

The pick: L.A. Rams

MINNESOTA (3-4) AT GREEN BAY (2-4)

Minnesota by 1.5; O/U: 41.5

It would be “so NFL” for Kirk Cousins to follow a rare MNF win with a Lambeau letdown. A big victory over the 49ers and now a chance to get to .500 after an 0-3 start? They like that! The Packers on a three-game skid with bad QB play? They don't Love that!  

The pick: Minnesota

NEW ENGLAND (2-5) AT MIAMI (5-2)

Miami by 9.5; O/U: 46.5

Miami failed another road test against a winning team, but now it’s back home where it runs circles around opposing defenses: 70-20, 31-16 and 42-21 wins. This was going to be a Miami pick, but with Tyreek Hill possibly not being 100%, this spread is too high. Also, the Patriots played the Dolphins close in a 24-17 loss in Week 2.  

The pick: New England

JACKSONVILLE (5-2) AT PITTSBURGH (4-2)

Jacksonville by 2.5; O/U: 40.5

As Al Michaels pointed out during the TNF broadcast, this will be the Jaguars’ only game in a 23-day span (they next host the 49ers on Nov. 12). Jacksonville has won four in a row (all covers) and Trevor Lawrence should benefit from the extra rest. Pittsburgh rallied to beat the Rams, but its offense is still a big question mark.

The pick: Jacksonville

LOCK OF THE WEEK

HOUSTON (3-3) AT CAROLINA (0-6)

Houston by 3.5; O/U: 43.5

Both teams are off a bye, and both feature a rookie QB (No. 1 pick Bryce Young vs. No. 2 pick C.J. Stroud). The similarities stop there. For a young team with a first-year coach, Houston is a well-oiled machine. With two weeks to prepare for the worst team in the NFL, DeMeco Ryans‘ group will be ready. Panthers coach Frank Reich handed off the play-calling duties, but if the Panthers (0-5-1 ATS) couldn’t cover two weeks ago as 13.5-point underdogs after jumping out to a 14-0 lead in Miami, when can they?

The pick: Houston

ATLANTA (4-3) AT TENNESSEE (2-4)

Atlanta by 2.5; O/U: 35.5

Mike Vrabel may use rookie Will Levis and Malik Willis in a dual-QB approach. Whatever he does after the bye week usually works: He’s 5-0 as Titans coach, with wins by 14, 22, 26, 20 and 9 points.

The pick: Tennessee

NEW ORLEANS (3-4) AT INDIANAPOLIS (3-4)

New Orleans by 1; O/U: 43.5

I haven’t picked the Saints all season. I haven’t gotten a Colts game right all season. I’d flip a coin but I’m afraid it would land on its edge. New Orleans’ stout defense has the best matchup, so let’s go with that.

The pick: New Orleans

4 p.m. Games

CINCINNATI (3-3) AT SAN FRANCISCO (5-2)

TV: CBS

San Francisco by 4.5; O/U: 43.5

The Bengals are off a bye. The 49ers have theirs next week. Time to put the theories to the test! San Francisco hasn’t lost three in a row since Weeks 3-5 of the 2021 season, but Cleveland and Minnesota exposed some weaknesses in what looked like a super team. If the Vikings put up over 450 yards on the 49ers without Justin Jefferson, Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase should have big days. Brock Purdy is in the concussion protocol, so Sam Darnold may start.   

The pick: Cincinnati

KANSAS CITY (6-1) AT DENVER (2-5)

Kansas City by 7.5; O/U: 46.5

KC has beaten Denver 16 times in a row, the latest a 19-8 victory on TNF in Week 6. In the first meeting, Patrick Mahomes (12-0 vs. Denver) and the offense had an off night and KC still (barely) covered the 10.5-point spread. With the way KC’s defense is playing — no offense has scored more than 20 points against it (remember, Detroit’s 21 points in the opener included a pick-6) — a 10-point win feels doable.

The pick: Kansas City

CLEVELAND (4-2) AT SEATTLE (4-2)

TV: Fox

Seattle by 3.5; O/U: 38.5

If you’re looking for a new drama to binge, may I suggest the 2023 Cleveland Browns. This season has it all: QB controversy! Upset wins! Close calls! After wins by 2 (19-17 over the 49ers) and 1 (39-38 over the Colts), this could be a tie. Can the Browns beat a solid yet unspectacular Seahawks team? TO BE CONTINUED.

The pick: Cleveland

BALTIMORE (5-2) AT ARIZONA (1-6)

Baltimore by 9.5; O/U: 44.5

If Baltimore plays at even 75% of the level it did in last week’s statement-making 38-6 win over Detroit, it can cover against an Arizona team that has lost four in a row (all non-covers after starting 3-0 ATS).

The pick: Baltimore

SUNDAY NIGHT

CHICAGO (2-5) AT L.A. CHARGERS (2-4)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

Los Angeles by 8.5; O/U: 46.5

Why wasn’t this game flexed out of prime time? The Bears have a little mojo with Tyson Bagent and his underdog QB story. This spread is too high for a Chargers team that rarely wins by double digits: Since 2020, a span of 56 games, the Chargers have won by nine or more points just nine times.

The pick: Chicago

MONDAY NIGHT

LAS VEGAS (3-4) AT DETROIT (5-2)

TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

Detroit by 7.5; O/U: 45.5

After an embarrassing performance in Week 7, it’s time to get back on track. But enough about my picks. The Lions did even worse, a 38-6 defeat at Baltimore. Sometimes an emerging team can benefit from a game like that, and you just know Dan Campbell will have his team ready for the first MNF game in Detroit since 2018. The Lions pick up where the Bears left off in mauling the Raiders.

The pick: Detroit

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.