NFL Week 8 picks: Jets finally beat Pats, Giants finally lose a close game

There are only two teams on a bye (Kansas City and the L.A. Chargers), but let’s spend some more time on that subject. Backing a team off a bye makes sense: It had an extra week to prepare and is well-rested. Another angle to look at is if a team has its bye the following week, the logic being that team will be extra-focused to go into the week off on a high note. While Buffalo, the L.A. Rams, Minnesota and Philadelphia return after last week’s bye, the six teams who have next week off are the Giants, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Pittsburgh and San Francisco.

Underdogs went 7-7 against the spread (ATS) last week and are 58-49-1 for the season.

My most confident picks ATS this week are Buffalo, San Francisco, Arizona and Seattle. Stay away from Washington-Indianapolis.

THE LOCALS

NEW ENGLAND (3-4) AT JETS (5-2)

TV: CBS, 1 p.m.

New England by 2.5; O/U: 40.5

First thought: No Breece Hall + No Alijah Vera-Tucker = No picking the Jets. Then they traded for James Robinson and the Patriots got crushed by the Bears on MNF. You should never make too much out of one game, but it’s hard to ignore New England’s quarterback mess. Mac Jones will start over Bailey Zappe, but this game is going to be more about Zach Wilson. Bill Belichick will make the second-year QB beat him, something the Jets haven’t done since December 2015. Last year’s losses were by scores of 25-6 and 54-13. Can you say bulletin board material? The last time the Jets faced a 12-game losing streak, it was an all-AFC East one and they responded by blitzing Miami in Week 5. Robert Saleh will use that same underdog storyline as motivation: Beating the Pats will be the cherry on top of a sweet start. Expect a close game, with the Jets’ defensive line (and maybe a long Wilson run or two) being the difference. 

The pick: Jets

GIANTS (6-1) AT SEATTLE (4-3)

TV: Fox, 4:25 p.m.

Seattle by 3; O/U: 44.5

Who would've thought this would be such an intriguing game? If the Giants (6-1 ATS) are the biggest surprise story, the NFC West-leading Seahawks (4-2 ATS) are right behind them. I'm a big believer in Brian Daboll and the Giants will be extra-focused with their bye on deck. I'm going to side with Seattle, though, because the Giants have been living by the comeback win and that's not sustainable. Geno Smith (NFL-best 73.5 completion percentage with 11 TDs to 3 INTs) and rookie back Kenneth Walker III (6.1 yards per carry) will give the Giants trouble. Big Blue loses a close game for a change. 

The pick: Seattle 

LONDON GAME

DENVER (2-5) VS. JACKSONVILLE (2-5)

TV: ESPN+, 9:30 a.m.

Jacksonville by 2.5; O/U: 39.5

You can only watch this game if you have ESPN+. Two teams riding four-game losing streaks isn’t a great selling point. This pick comes down to: 1) London is Jacksonville's home away from home; 2) Nathaniel Hackett is in over his head as an NFL coach and having his team ready for a London game will be a challenge.

The pick: Jacksonville 

1 p.m. Games

PITTSBURGH (2-5) AT PHILADELPHIA (6-0)

Philadelphia by 10.5; O/U: 43.5

Pittsburgh has covered the last two weeks as a big ‘dog, but this will be tough. Philadelphia (4-2 ATS) is off a bye and the NFL’s lone unbeaten team should roll.

The pick: Philadelphia 

CHICAGO (3-4) AT DALLAS (5-2)

Dallas by 9.5; O/U: 42.5

The Bears' MNF win at New England was a shocker, but don't let that influence your pick here. Dallas' pass rush will get to Justin Fields. The Cowboys have their bye in Week 9, so I expect a fully-concentrated, one-sided win.  

The pick: Dallas 

ARIZONA (3-4) AT MINNESOTA (5-1)

Minnesota by 3.5; O/U: 48.5

Don't look at the records when picking this game. Minnesota, off a bye, isn't a dominant 5-1, with no signature win (the opener over Green Bay means less by the week). Kyler Murray is a different quarterback when DeAndre Hopkins plays (17-10 record with vs. 3-7 without) and don't be surprised if the Vikings flop as the unpredictable Cards give them a bad beat.

The pick: Arizona 

MIAMI (4-3) AT DETROIT (1-5)

Miami by 3.5; O/U: 51.5

This Dolphins offense was built for Tua Tagovailoa and his speedy receivers. After snapping a three-game skid, look for Miami to keep it going against a Lions defense that allows the most yards (412.2) and points (32.3) per game.

The pick: Miami 

LAS VEGAS (2-4) AT NEW ORLEANS (2-5)

Las Vegas by 1.5; O/U: 49.5

This feels like a "last-to-have-the-ball wins" kind of game. Both have too much talent to be 2-win teams, but injuries and costly mistakes can do that. The Saints' loss last week was misleading because of two pick-6s in a minute.

The pick: New Orleans 

CAROLINA (2-5) AT ATLANTA (3-4)

Atlanta by 4; O/U: 41.5

Carolina celebrated its stunning win over Tampa Bay as if it had just won the Super Bowl. Forget about that win, which was way more about the bumbling Bucs. Atlanta (6-1 ATS) averages 156.9 rushing yards per game, and Carolina allows 120.9.

The pick: Atlanta 

4 p.m. Games

GAME OF THE WEEK

SAN FRANCISCO (3-4) AT L.A. RAMS (3-3)

TV: Fox, 4:25 p.m.

San Francisco by 1.5; O/U: 42.5

Good news for the Rams: They had a bye last week at a much-needed time. Bad news for the Rams: Now they play the 49ers again. Kyle Shanahan has beaten Sean McVay in the teams’ last seven regular-season meetings, including 24-9 in Week 4. Yes, the Rams earned the biggest win between the rivals in last year’s NFC title game, but Shanahan has shown he has a game plan to beat these Rams. The addition of Christian McCaffrey only helps the 49ers’ chances, and in a weird coincidence, the Rams face McCaffrey in back-to-back games: In Week 6, he had 69 yards rushing and 89 yards receiving against them as a Panther. The 49ers will go all-out to avoid going into their bye 3-5.

The pick: 49ers

WASHINGTON (3-4) AT INDIANAPOLIS (3-3-1)

Indianapolis by 3; O/U: 39.5

Carson Wentz vs. his replacement Matt Ryan? Nope. It's Taylor Heinicke vs. Sam Ehlinger, two No. 4-wearing new No. 1s. Heinicke is feisty and gave Washington a boost in last week's win over Green Bay. Maybe Ehlinger could do the same for Indianapolis, but I don't feel comfortable laying points with a quarterback who has never attempted an NFL pass.

The pick: Washington 

TENNESSEE (4-2) AT HOUSTON (1-4-1)

Tennessee by 2.5; O/U: 40.5

Ryan Tannehill is dealing with a foot injury but could play. Either way, expect this to be like most Houston games this year: Close for three-plus quarters before the better team pulls away. Tennessee has won four in a row, all covers.

The pick: Tennessee

LOCK OF THE WEEK           

SUNDAY NIGHT

GREEN BAY (3-4) AT BUFFALO (5-1)

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m.

Buffalo by 10.5; O/U: 47.5

The bye could not have arrived at a better time for the Bills, who could’ve been flat last week after an emotional comeback win at Kansas City. Now, they’re hosting a Sunday night game for just the second time since 2007. After Green Bay lost its third in a row, Aaron Rodgers said being a big underdog (the largest of his career) might be “the best thing for us . . . Nobody’s going to give us a chance.” Well, he’s right on the second part. Buffalo (NFL-low 13.5 points per game allowed) is the last team the Packers should want to face, as its secondary will lock down their underwhelming receivers and the pass rush will rattle Rodgers the way the Giants and Jets did. Rodgers & Co. didn’t even convert a third down last week! Buffalo makes it a third big home win after already routing the Titans (41-7) and Steelers (38-3).

The pick: Buffalo

MONDAY NIGHT

CINCINNATI (4-3) AT CLEVELAND (2-5)

TV: ESPN, 8:15 p.m.

Cincinnati by 3.5; O/U: 45.5

A Browns home game on Halloween night? (Rubs hands together) This is going to be a treat! Joe Burrow has been hot lately, but we could get a scary-good game. Burrow is 0-3 vs. the Browns and Cleveland will be extra-motivated to snap a four-game skid before its bye.

The pick: Cleveland 

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.