NFL Wild Card Weekend picks, scores for all 6 games

AFC GAMES

(5) CLEVELAND BROWNS (11-6)

AT (4) HOUSTON TEXANS (10-7)

TV: NBC, 4:30 p.m. Saturday

Cleveland by 2; O/U: 44.5

The Texans always seem to be in the first Saturday game, but unlike years past, there's a lot of excitement thanks to C.J. Stroud's phenomenal rookie season. The 22-year-old would be the youngest quarterback to win a playoff game. He missed the Week 16 meeting, a 36-22 Browns win in which Joe Flacco and Amari Cooper (11 receptions, 265 yards, 2 TDs) had their own game of catch for three hours. Cooper hasn’t played since, but said he is ready to go. Stroud not seeing the NFL's No. 1 defense the first time hurts the Texans. The second meeting should be closer and lower scoring (playoff football!). The Browns are my pick to make the Super Bowl, but this will be hard-fought. Experience wins out: Flacco, 38, is tied with Tom Brady for the most road playoff wins with seven, and is 5-0 in wild-card games.

The pick: Cleveland

The score: Cleveland 23, Houston 17

(6) MIAMI DOLPHINS (11-6) AT (3) KANSAS CITY (11-6)

TV: Peacock, 8:10 p.m. Saturday

Kansas City by 4.5; O/U: 44.5

Miami went from the 2 seed and warm Florida to the 6 seed and -6 degrees in Kansas City. Talk about hard knocks. It's not just that: the Dolphins have lost so many key defenders that they should ask Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor to suit up. But as coach Mike McDaniel said, "adversity is opportunity." Remember last year's playoffs, when Miami, on its third-string QB, put a scare into Buffalo in a 34-31 road loss? Kansas City hasn't been its super self all season, its receivers dropping key passes and Patrick Mahomes having his most frustrating year. KC beat Miami, 21-14, in Germany in Week 9 thanks to a defensive touchdown it created by turning over Tyreek Hill. He's back at Arrowhead, but KC's elite defense can make that a footnote. The safer play is to just back the champs at home against a Miami team that is winless in its last 10 games with the kickoff temperature under 40 degrees. But sometimes you just go with your gut. Miami's running game and undermanned defense are going to find a way to win by a single digit in the single-digit cold.

The pick: Miami

The score: Miami 17, Kansas City 16

(7) PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-7) AT (2) BUFFALO BILLS (11-6)

TV: CBS, 1 p.m. Sunday

Buffalo by 10; O/U: 36.5

I don't expect any blowouts this weekend, but if there was one, this would be it. Then again, the Bills (five wins in a row to earn their fourth straight AFC East title) showed a penchant for letting teams hang around the last month. Mason Rudolph has the offense clicking as the Steelers won three in a row to get in. But edge rusher T.J. Watt isn't going to play, and they're a different team without him. This is still a lot of points against a Mike Tomlin-coached team. There's a scenario where Josh Allen has his standard couple of turnovers mixed in with highlight-reel plays to keep the Steelers in it.

The pick: Pittsburgh

The score: Buffalo 27, Pittsburgh 19

NFC GAMES

(7) GREEN BAY PACKERS (9-8) AT (2) DALLAS COWBOYS (12-5)

TV: Fox, 4:30 p.m. Sunday

Dallas by 7; O/U: 50.5

Dallas was the only NFL team to go undefeated at home this season (8-0), so it’s hard to envision its first loss happening with so much on the line. Covering is another story. Dallas’ first six home wins were all by 20 or more points, but the last two (41-35 over Seattle in Week 13 and 20-19 over Detroit in Week 17) were nail-biters. Quick, someone bring Jerry Jones’ emery board to the owners’ box. The franchises have split their previous eight playoff meetings, the last an Aaron Rodgers-led comeback seven years ago at Dallas in the divisional round. Jordan Love isn’t Rodgers, but did you see last week’s touchdown throw off the back foot? Very Rodgers-esque, and Love has been a different quarterback in the second half of the season: 18 touchdowns to 1 interception as the Packers won six of their last eight games. Dak Prescott, probably the MVP runner-up, and an opportunistic defense have had too great of a season at home to pick against outright, but don’t be surprised if Mike McCarthy’s former team has the ball trailing by a touchdown and driving with under a minute left.

The pick: Dallas

The score: Dallas 34, Green Bay 27

(6) LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-7) AT (3) DETROIT LIONS (12-5)

TV: NBC, 8:15 p.m. Sunday

Detroit by 3; O/U: 51.5

First division title since 1993? Check. First home playoff game in 30 years? Check. Dream season for the Lions to continue? Check back late Sunday night. It was all going so smoothly for the Lions, my preseason pick to make the Super Bowl. Until the Week 17 two-point debacle in Dallas. Until the Week 18 injury to record-setting rookie tight end Sam LaPorta. Until drawing former quarterback Matthew Stafford in the playoffs. Jared Goff will be motivated against his old team, too, and he also has the weapons to put up 30 points. Even if LaPorta plays, he won’t be 100%. Stafford, Cooper Kupp and another record-setting rookie in Puka Nacua will 100% get the best of a Lions pass defense that gives up the sixth most yards per game (247.4). When they need a big stop late, they won’t get it. Dan Campbell has done a tremendous job (up until the last two weeks), but the more battle-tested Sean McVay has his team peaking at the right time: 7-1 after a 3-6 start. Next stop: San Francisco.

The pick: L.A. Rams

The score: L.A. 31, Detroit 27

(5) PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (11-6)

AT (4) TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (9-8)

TV: ABC, ESPN, ESPN2, 8:15 p.m.

Philadelphia by 3; O/U: 43.5

If someone had told you on Thanksgiving that these teams would meet in the playoffs, you might have thought: “Oh, Tampa Bay advanced to play at 1 seed Philadelphia?” But unlike the Eagles, you haven’t taken the last month-plus off, so you know what’s been going on. Philadelphia went from 10-1 to losing five of six to fall to the NFC’s 5 seed. Tampa Bay won five of six to wrap up another division title. Philadelphia won, 25-11, at Tampa Bay in Week 3 (also on a Monday night) as it ran for 201 yards. A Bucs win seems more likely this time, but I’m going with Jalen Hurts and hoping the experience of last year’s Super Bowl run shows up. Dream scenario: The Eagles, trailing by 4, drive to the 1 and on the game’s final play . . . “Tush Push!” (Against the spread, too).

The pick: Philadelphia

The score: Philadelphia 23, Tampa Bay 20

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.