3 reasons to bet on Kansas City to win Super Bowl 2024

1. DYNASTY SEEKERS

When Kansas City beat Philadelphia in last year’s Super Bowl, the confetti hadn’t even stopped falling when Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid were talking about running it back again this year. And here they are, in their fourth Super Bowl in five years, and with a chance to win their third and become the NFL’s first dynasty since the early-aughts Patriots. No team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since New England in the 2003 and 2004 seasons. All signs point to Kansas City joining that exclusive club.

It all starts with experience. Mahomes has played six full seasons and made the Super Bowl in five of them. He has a 14-3 playoff record. That includes his first two road postseason starts this year, when he found a way to win a thriller at Buffalo and then did enough early and let the defense do the rest at Baltimore. Even when Mahomes isn’t at his best, he finds a way to win these games. He hasn’t thrown an interception this postseason and has been sacked just twice.

Being an underdog only seems to fuel him: Kansas City is 9-3 as underdogs in the Mahomes Era, and a whopping 10-1-1 against the spread. That includes the last two wins. Before the AFC Championship Game, ESPN Analytics gave Baltimore a 63.6% chance to beat Kansas City. Now, it’s giving San Francisco a 59% chance. One thing it doesn’t seem to consider is experience. Mahomes, Reid, Travis Kelce and a few other cornerstones have been in this spot so often that Sunday might feel like another game against the Raiders in Las Vegas. The pressure won’t get to them. The moment won’t be too big.

2. CHAMPIONSHIP DEFENSE

If you’re new to this whole football thing (hi, Swifties), you might think Kansas City is only here because of Mahomes and Taylor’s boyfriend. But unlike the first three Super Bowl trips, the main reason the champs are here is because of their elite defense. Steve Spagnuolo’s group flew mostly under the radar this season, outsiders focusing more on the offense’s drops than giving the defense its props. Kansas City allowed the second fewest points (17.3) and yards (289.8) per game. Most importantly, it allowed an NFL-low 6.8 points in the second half, which will be useful if San Francisco needs to mount another rally like they did against Green Bay and Detroit.

Kansas City’s defense has stepped it up even more in the playoffs by allowing a total of 10 second-half points: 0 vs. Miami, 7 at Buffalo, 3 at Baltimore. L’Jarius Sneed’s forced fumble at the goal line in the AFC title game is the kind of play that fuels Super Bowl seasons. If there’s one weakness to this KC defense, it’s that it isn’t great against the run, so expect Christian McCaffrey to be featured early and often. But if KC gets out to an early lead like it did at Baltimore, the 49ers may not stick to the run and then there’s too much pressure on Brock Purdy.

3. PURDY, SHANAHAN SHAKY

Speaking of Purdy, his “last pick in the draft to Super Bowl starter in two years” meteoric rise is right out of a Hollywood script. He showed in comeback wins over the Packers and Lions that he is a leading man, but overall he has been shaky in the playoffs. The Packers dropped a sure pick-6, and he had another possible interception bounce off a Lions defender’s face mask for a 51-yard catch for the 49ers. You can’t make those mistakes against a team like Kansas City. And then there’s the four-INT game against the Ravens on Christmas night. They rattled him, and if San Francisco falls behind early and Purdy is feeling the pressure, the same thing could happen again. Led by Chris Jones, KC’s defensive line can get to the quarterback without blitzing, and that leaves more chances for the secondary to pick off Purdy.

Shanahan has had great success in the regular season, but the coach has struggled in the playoffs. He was an epic Detroit collapse away from losing three straight NFC title games, and in Super Bowl LIV, the 49ers were leading 20-10 in the fourth quarter before Kansas City won, 31-20. There's also Super Bowl LI, when he was the Falcons offensive coordinator and questionable play-calling helped doom Atlanta in the "28-3 game" against the Patriots. 

FINAL SAY

Before the season, Kansas City was my pick to win the Super Bowl. It was a boring pick, but I didn’t feel anyone was ready to dethrone the champs. Then the regular season happened, the offense struggled and KC lost six games, the most with Mahomes. When it was time to make Super Bowl picks before the playoffs, I didn’t even pick KC to make it to the big game, let alone win it (the 49ers were my pick). But Mahomes, Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and an elite defense with elite coaching gives Kansas City the look of a team that is on a mission to become the NFL’s next dynasty. The hard part was getting here. Now they can bank on their experience to win a close game against a tough opponent. Maybe Kansas City struggling the way it did was what the NFL needed. The champs, the team most expected to be back here at the start of the season, did what few great teams can do: surprise us.

The pick: Kansas City (+2.5)

The score: Kansas City 24, San Francisco 17

By Joe Manniello

joe.manniello@newsday.com@joe_manniello

Joe Manniello, an editor on the sports copy desk, has written the NFL picks column since 2015. Manniello joined Newsday in 2004. He graduated from St. John's.