Do the Islanders have a goal-scoring problem?
New York Islanders' Kyle Palmieri controls the puck as St. Louis Blues' Brayden Schenn defends during the third period on Thursday. Credit: AP/Scott Kane
It's a standard response around the NHL and there’s an underlying logic to it. If the subject is offensive struggles, be it individual or the team, the response is usually there are no worries as long as the chances are there. Because if the chances are coming, then the goals are sure to follow.
There’s no advanced metric on how often that bears truth. Let’s estimate and say it comes to fruition at least 50% of the time.
Which brings us to the Islanders, who return home from a 1-1-1 trip in which they were shut out twice sandwiched around a 6-2 win over the struggling Avalanche. They face the Canadiens on Saturday night at UBS Arena.
And it’s fair to ask: Do the Islanders have a scoring problem?
“I mean, obviously, we need to score goals to win,” defenseman Noah Dobson said after Thursday night’s 1-0 overtime loss to the Blues. “I think we’ve generated lots. It just comes down to we’ve got to bear down and find our chances and, when we have them, we’ve got to capitalize. We’ve definitely had the looks.”
Blues backup goalie Joel Hofer earned his second career shutout with 34 saves. The Islanders opened the week-long trip with a 3-0 loss to the Stars as Jake Oettinger made 33 saves.
The Islanders were third in the NHL with an average of 33.0 shots per game heading into Friday’s matches.
Yet they were 27th in the league with 10 goals scored through their first four games (1-1-2), an average of 2.5.
It’s not necessarily a scoring problem but a consistency issue. The Islanders netted four in their season-opening overtime loss to Utah, so when they’re not getting shutout, they’re scoring enough to win.
“I don’t know from what you guys [the media] saw but that’s how it felt – good chances from both sides,” center Jean-Gabriel Pageau said after Thursday’s defeat. “We had our looks and we were not able to capitalize. There’s a lot of positives, I think.”
Coach Patrick Roy, too, was generally pleased with how the Islanders played on the road trip, calling their loss in Dallas the best game of the three. The reason was the patience he felt the Islanders showed with the puck against the Stars.
He wanted to see more of that against the Blues.
"Maybe a little bit more poise offensively,” Roy said. “Hold onto pucks. We kind of moved the puck a little faster than we should. We should look for our options. We did it at the end of the second period with the [Kyle] MacLean line. They hold onto the puck and they wait and they had it for close to 40 seconds in the offensive zone. That’s what maybe we could have done a little bit better.”
Yet MacLean’s fourth line with Casey Cizikas and Oliver Wahlstrom has yet to generate a point. While they’re not expected to be top scorers, it is noticeable that they’ve allowed 21 scoring chances while generating just six. And high-danger chances are 9-2 against them skating five-on-five, per NaturalStatTrick.com.
Roy wants all four of his lines to provide offense.
So it wouldn’t be shocking if the Islanders eventually try speedy Julien Gauthier, a healthy scratch the first four games, or consider recalling Hudson Fasching or Pierre Engvall from their AHL affiliate in Bridgeport.
Andrew Gross joined Newsday in 2018 to cover the Islanders. He began reporting on the NHL in 2003 and has previously covered the Rangers and Devils. Other assignments have included the Jets, St. John’s and MLB.
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