Ed McNamara's Kentucky Derby 2011 analysis

POST 1 ARCHARCHARCHTrainer: Jinks Fires

Jockey: Jon Court

Graded-stakes earnings: $780,000

Odds: 10-1

Last three races: 1-3-1

Comment: Arkansas Derby upset was big step forward, but Nehro almost caught him. Pedigree says he'll get 11/4 miles, although he's never won two in a row. Would have been 5-1 or 6-1 if he hadn't drawn the dreaded rail, a rough spot when you're inside 19 other horses. Needs lots of luck to get a good trip, but he's in sharp form, so it will be difficult but not impossible.

2BRILLIANT SPEED

Trainer: Tom Albertrani

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Graded-stakes earnings: $450,000

Odds: 30-1

Last three races: 1-3-2

Comment: Blue Grass win at 19-1 came out of nowhere. Good Keeneland form hasn't transferred to the Derby since Charismatic in 1999, and this guy lost by 4011/4 lengths in his only two dirt races.

3TWICE THE APPEAL

Trainer: Jeff Bonde

Jockey:Calvin Borel

Graded-stakes earnings: $400,000

Odds:20-1

Last three races: 1-2-1

Comment: In 2009 Mine That Bird came from New Mexico, like this colt, and you know how that turned out with Calvin. Can Borel win a fourth Derby in five years with another bomb? On paper, no way, but maybe put down $2 just to cover yourself.

4STAY THIRSTY

Trainer:Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez

Graded-stakes earnings:$260,000

Odds: 20-1

Last three races:7-1-5

Comment:Uncle Mo's stablemate removes blinkers after too-bad-to-be-true seventh in Florida Derby. In his Gotham win he easily defeated next-out Wood winner Toby's Corner. If he runs back to the Gotham, he has a slim chance; his pedigree says he'll like 10 furlongs.

5DECISIVE MOMENT

Trainer:Juan Arias

Jockey:Kerwin Clark

Graded-stakes earnings: $301,000

Odds:30-1

Last three races:2-5-1

Comment: He's winless beyond a mile, and the mile victory came at tiny Delta Downs. Makes quantum leap in class; seriously overmatched.

6COMMA TO THE TOP

Trainer:Peter Miller

Jockey: Patrick Valenzuela

Graded-stakes earnings:$671,000

Odds:30-1

Last three races:2-4-4

Comment:California-based need-to-lead type looks like a pace casualty. Valenzuela, winner of the 1989 Derby on Sunday Silence, is a great speed rider but should face lots of pressure up front.

7PANTS ON FIRE

Trainer: Kelly Breen

Jockey:Rosie Napravnik

Graded-stakes earnings: $623,000

Odds: 20-1

Last three races:1-6-2

Comment:Must prove Louisiana Derby upset was no fluke for Napravnik, who'll be the sixth woman to ride in the Derby. Speed figures so-so, and will have lots of company up front. Seems unlikely.

8DIALED IN

Trainer:Nick Zito

Jockey:Julien Leparoux

Graded-stakes earnings: $840,000

Odds:4-1

Last three races:1-2-1

Comment:Deep closer with outstanding late-pace figures should get the right set-up; dangerous. Leparoux is masterful at Churchill but will have to weave through field to win.

9DERBY KITTEN

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Graded-stakes earnings: $120,000

Odds:30-1

Last three races:1-2-2

Comment:Was 1-for-8 before pulling 9-1 upset in Keeneland's Lexington. Got into race when Toby's Corner was scratched. Never has run on dirt and looks like a throwout.

10TWINSPIRED

Trainer:Michael Maker

Jockey:Mike Smith

Graded-stakes earnings:$197,500

Odds:30-1

Last three races:2-3-4

Comment: Nosed in the Blue Grass at 25-1 after two poor runs at Turfway. Can't see him making any impact. Has the perfect name for a Derby winner, but that's about it.

11MASTER OF THE HOUNDS

Trainer:Aidan O'Brien

Jockey:Garrett Gomez

Graded-stakes earnings:$441,884

Odds: 30-1

Last three races:2-6-3

Comment:O'Brien, the Todd Pletcher of Europe, senses an opportunity in a wide-open race. Has great distance bloodlines and was nosed out in 1 3/16-mile U.A.E. Derby on synthetic in Dubai. First time on dirt is a major question, but he's worth a stab. Getting O'Brien at 20-1 in a major stakes will lure much overseas money.

12SANTIVA

Trainer: Eddie Kenneally

Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan

Graded-stakes earnings: $242,397

Odds:30-1

Last three races:9-2-1

Comment: He's 1-for-6 lifetime and seems overmatched. His only win came last fall at Churchill in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, which last year's Derby winner, Super Saver, won in 2009. An omen? No.

13MUCHO MACHO MANTrainer: Kathy Ritvo

Jockey:Rajiv Maragh

Graded-stakes earnings: $370,000

Odds: 12-1

Last three races: 3-1-4

Comment: Was a game third in Louisiana Derby despite losing a shoe at the start. Never run a bad race and looks as if 1¼ miles will suit him, so no shock if he finishes in the money.

14SHACKLEFORD

Trainer:Dale Romans

Jockey: Jesus Castanon

Graded-stakes earnings: $212,000

Odds: 12-1

Last three races: 2-5-1

Comment: Almost stole the Florida Derby on the lead but tired in slow final furlong. He's one of many with a good chance of being cooked by a hot pace. If you can guess which speed horse will last, your chances of hitting a big trifecta will improve.

15MIDNIGHT INTERLUDETrainer:Bob Baffert

Jockey:Victor Espinoza

Graded-stakes earnings:$600,000

Odds: 10-1

Last three races:1-1-2

Comment: Santa Anita Derby win was excellent, and Baffert is Mr. Derby (three wins). Main knock is he made his career debut Jan. 29, and every Derby winner since Apollo in 1882 ran as a 2-year-old.

16ANIMAL KINGDOM

Trainer:Graham Motion

Jockey:Robby Albarado

Graded-stakes earnings: $285,000

Odds: 30-1

Last three races: 1-2-1

Comment: Synthetic/grass specialist makes dirt debut, a tough place to learn a new trick. Toby's Corner, scratched because of lameness, would have given Motion a better chance.

17SOLDAT

Trainer:Kiaran McLaughlinJockey: Alan Garcia

Graded-stakes earnings: $540,000

Odds:12-1

Last three races:5-1-1 Comment:His bandwagon emptied after he ran fifth as the favorite in the Florida Derby. Too bad he doesn't have a different running style, because both his main-track wins were wire to wire. Wet track would help a lot, and if Uncle Mo scratches or struggles, Soldat looks like the best of the many speed types.

18UNCLE MO

Trainer:Todd PletcherJockey:John Velazquez

Graded-stakes earnings:$1,360,000

Odds: 9-2

Last three races:3-1-1

Comment: He went from invincible to a major question mark after the Wood, and as of Thursday night there was a chance he'd be scratched. At his best, he could win, but can he recapture his 2-year-old form? Even if he is 100 percent healthy, on-the-pace style and questionable distance pedigree are worries.19NEHRO

Trainer:Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Corey Nakatani

Graded-stakes earnings: $400,000

Odds:6-1

Last three races:2-2-1

Comment:Powerful finisher just missed in Louisiana and Arkansas Derbys. Buzz horse has trained well and has a good shot, but post 19 is no bargain, though it won't affect a closer as much as it would bother a horse who likes to sit third or fourth. Morning line seems lower than it should be, but don't be surprised if he's close to 10-1.

20WATCH ME GO

Trainer: Kathleen O'Connell

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Graded-stakes earnings:$235,500

Odds: 50-1

Last three races:6-1-3

Comment:A 17-length loss in a very weak Illinois Derby says avoid Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Speed figures are poor, and he doesn't belong. But don't be surprised if he's close to 10-1 at post time.