Steve Matthews' Kentucky Derby 2024 horse-by-horse analysis

Kentucky Derby hopeful Domestic Product waits to work out at... — Kentucky Derby hopeful Domestic Product waits to work out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday, April 30, 2024, in Louisville, Ky. Credit: AP/Charlie Riedel

By Steve Matthewssteve.matthews@newsday.comUpdated May 1, 2024

Man, I love the first Saturday in May. Remember, wagering on the chaos of horse racing is more about price than handicapping.

KENTUCKY DERBY TOP FOUR SELECTIONS

15 - DOMESTIC PRODUCT (Minimum odds to make a win wager 10-1)
4 - CATCHING FREEDOM (10-1)
1 - DORNOCH (20-1)
2 - SIERRA LEONE (5-1)

KENTUCKY DERBY FIELD ANALYSIS

1) DORNOCH

He has positional speed and fired a crisp half-mile work over the track last Saturday. He's never been more than 5-2 in six career starts and he's 20-1 on the morning line. Put him on your contender list if he's 20-1 or greater.

2) SIERRA LEONE

Certainly, has the credentials on paper. From the Chad Brown barn, Grade 1 winner and 3-for-4 lifetime. But he figures to attract far too much cash for our liking. Obviously can win, but I wouldn't take anything less than 5-1 in a likely 20-horse field.

3) MYSTIK DAN

He owns fast late-pace figures and outworked 71 rivals in a 5-furlong work over the track on April 20. Put him in the mix if 20-1 or better.

4) CATCHING FREEDOM

Owns fast late-pace figures, sharp recent works over the Churchill Downs surface and running style that should handle the 1 1/4-mile trip. Big-time player if 10-1 or more.

5) CATALYTIC

Lightly raced and developing with each start but would have to make a huge forward move on the final figures to contend. Steer clear if he's anything less than 60-1.

6) JUST STEEL

Was a clear-cut second in the Arkansas Derby (the winner, Muth, is trained by Bob Baffert and is barred from the race). Would be the feel-good story of the day if he can become fifth Derby winner for 88-year-old D. Wayne Lukas. Bet against it if less than 30-1.

7) HONOR MARIE

From the below-the-radar barn of D. Whitworth Beckman, a Todd Pletcher protege. He owns two wins at Churchill Downs and is riding a "healthy line" on the numbers. Factor him into the fray if final odds exceed 19-1.

8) JUST A TOUCH

This corner wouldn't touch him at less than 30-1. He's off a “double top” in his last race, which in pace handicapping speak means he earned career bests in both internal and final figures. Such big efforts usually lead to a backward step in the next race.

10) T O PASSWORD

Japanese import Number 1. Hasn't lost in two lifetime starts but this is really asking a lot. 100-1 shot at best.

11) FOREVER YOUNG

Japanese import Number 2. This one is 5-for-5, including the UAE Derby. Does deserve some scrutiny but let the price dictate your move. 30-1 or greater.

12) TRACK PHANTOM

He's speedy and adds blinkers, positives in any horse race. The unknown is whether he can handle the distance. I wouldn't speculate unless he's a minimum of 40-1.

13) WEST SARATOGA

This one represents the epitome of every runner having a price on their heads. Appears hopeless on paper but if offered at 300-1 or greater on the tote, he's worthy of a wager. It's not going to happen.

14) ENDLESSLY

He's only raced on the Tapeta surface or grass but he's chalked up five wins from six starts. Sure, it's a gamble to think he can pull this off, but at 50-1 or more you've got the odds in your favor.

15) DOMESTIC PRODUCT

This 3-year-old from the Chad Brown barn tallied a sizzling late-pace figure when winning the non-wagering (due to a tote issue) Tampa Bay Derby last out. He fits Brown's classic pattern of a freshener along with a tightly grouped workout tab. This handicapper's top selection, provided he's at least 10-1 at post time.

16) GRAND MO THE FIRST

Has never won a race beyond 5 ½ furlongs and has no workouts at Churchill. He's got a 50-1 ML and but more like a 500-1 chance to win.

17) FIERCENESS

All the rage after his fierce 13-length romp in the Florida Derby. He's the 5/2 ML favorite to take down all the cash but he has shown a disturbing pattern of "bouncing" (take a backward step) after his big-figure efforts. He'd need to be 6-1 or greater before I'd wager.

18) STRONGHOLD

His final numbers are in the ballpark, but he benefited big time from a scorching early pace to win the Santa Anita Derby last time. Just don't think he'll have enough at crunch time; 35-1 or greater.

19) RESILIENCE

Received the most perfect of perfect trips to win the Wood Memorial. Highly doubtful he'll get the same setup in this bulky field. Playable, but you should get 30-1 or better before taking the money clip off.