Steve Matthews' Kentucky Derby 2023 horse-by-horse analysis
Kentucky Derby hopeful Angel of Empire works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday in Louisville, Ky. Credit: AP/Charlie Riedel
1. Hit Show (30-1)
The Kentucky Derby is one of the few races in America in which you can see a 30-1 morning line on a horse that’s been favored in all five of his races. Certainly the rail is no bargain, but this son of Candy Ride owns a sit-and-pounce style that should have him favorably positioned. Worth a long look if anywhere near 30-1.
2. Verifying (15-1)
His speed and fast recent works over the Churchill Downs surface are positives, but his ability to handle the distance could be a negative. Horse racing is all about price: Demand 20-1 or better if you’re considering making a win wager.
3. Two Phil’s (12-1)
Made a monumental forward move on late-pace and final figures when winning JR Stakes on Turfway’s Polytrack last time. The $3 million question: Can he reproduce that effort on dirt? This corner says no.
4. Confidence Game (20-1)
He’s been sidelined for 10 weeks, which gives us no confidence he’ll be ready to get the job done.
5. Tapit Trice (5-1)
This son of Tapit was bought for $1.3 million as a yearling and he’s riding a four-race winning streak. Certainly has the look of a big-time contender on paper, but he’s likely to be undervalued on the board. Must take the good with the bad.
6. Kingsbarns (12-1)
Hard to fault a horse who’s a perfect 3-for-3, but his victory in the Louisiana Derby may have been dressed up by slow fractions. Marginal player.
7. Reincarnate (50-1)
Would have to be reincarnated as Secretariat to have a chance. Not with my money.
8. Mage (15-1)
Displayed distance limitations when he failed to get the job done in the Florida Derby and he’s likely to attract too much cash, as well. No thanks.
9. Skinner (20-1)
A closer that needs pace help to get there, but he’ll offer a juicy price and may not be the worst inclusion in exotics. Get ready to partner with the IRS if he hits the board.
10. Practical Move (10-1)
He owns positional speed and appears to be the best of the SoCal runners. Caveat: The 1 1/4-mile distance may be beyond his scope. You’ve been warned.
11. Disarm (30-1)
Simply seems to be slow on final figures. Next, please.
12. Jace’s Road (50-1)
Appears to be in the race to ensure a fast pace for trainer Brad Cox barnmates Verifying, Hit Show and Angel of Empire. Likely to see them all at the wire.
13. Sun Thunder (50-1)
He’s 50-1 on the morning line but his actual chances appear to be closer to 500-1. Let’s move on.
14. Angel of Empire (8-1)
This corner’s top selection. He visually and numerically impressed when winning the Arkansas Derby and he logged three sharp works over the Churchill Downs strip in the interim. Hop aboard to cash.
15. Forte (3-1)
Tough to knock a horse that’s 6-for-7 in his career, including the Florida Derby, and capable of unleashing sustained rallies in the final furlong. Big-time contender but small-time price.
16. Raise Cain (50-1)
That’s likely to be the crowd’s reaction if this mega-longshot wins.
17. Derma Sotogake (10-1)
No, it’s not a skin condition but a Japan-bred 3-year-old colt. This corner would break out in a rash if he were to win.
18. Rocket Can (30-1)
He’s displayed an affinity for the Churchill Downs surface and he’s a beefy 30-1 on the ML. Very interesting. Be prepared for a “signer” if he lands in the exotics.
19. Lord Miles (30-1)
Pulled off a 59-1 shocker to win the Wood Memorial. Doubtful lightning will strike twice.
20. Continuar (50-1)
This Japan-bred picked a bad place to make his stateside debut. Just stay out of the way.
Also eligible
21. Cyclone Mischief (30-1): If he gets in, he’ll offer nothing more than some early run.
22. Mandarin Hero (20-1): Another that’s not likely to start, but he owns four wins and two seconds from six starts and rates an outside shot to hit the board.
23. King Russell (50-1): Also a likely scratch, but he was a much-improved second at 58-1 in the Arkansas Derby. Stay tuned to late changes.
PICKS
(14) Angel of Empire, (1) Hit Show, (15) Forte, (9) Skinner
