Steve Matthews' Preakness Stakes 2024 horse-by-horse analysis
Brian Hernandez Jr. celebrates in the winner's circle after riding Mystik Dan to win the 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. Credit: AP/Jeff Roberson
The 2024 Preakness Stakes takes place on Saturday, May 18, at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore, Maryland.
PREAKNESS STAKES TOP FOUR PICKS
- 5 - MYSTIK DAN
- 3 - CATCHING FREEDOM
- 9 - IMAGINATION
- 7 - JUST STEEL
PREAKNESS STAKES FIELD ANALYSIS
1 - MUGATU
This colt has just a maiden win from 12 starts, has no early speed and is slower than a snail on the final numbers. A 20-1 ML with a 500-1 chance.
2 - UNCLE HEAVY
Hails from the below-the-radar Butch Reid barn, has Irad Ortiz in the irons and has trained sharply since his last start. The negative: He appears a touch too slow on final figures. Demand 40-1 or better if you like him.
3 - CATCHING FREEDOM
Steadily passed horses when a late-running fourth in the Derby but took advantage of hot fractions and a picture-perfect trip along the rail. He was a top-figured winner in the Louisiana Derby (at this exact distance) two starts back and must be placed on the short list of contenders if the price is right. Willing to head to the windows if 6-1 or above.
5 - MYSTIK DAN
There's no doubt he took advantage of a dream trip along the inside under Brian Hernandez to win the Kentucky Derby, but it appears he can secure that same position on Saturday. He has the proper "foundation" on the numbers (Derby final figure was less than his career best) and should have plenty left in the tank for another winning effort. We're betting if 3-1 or more.
6 - SEIZE THE GREY
One of two from the D. Wayne Lukas barn. This gray colt was a good-looking winner in the Pat Day Mile on the Derby undercard. That's a positive. The downside, he tallied career-best internal and final figures in that score and could be ripe to bounce (go backward) on Saturday. I'd steer clear if he's less than 20-1.
7 - JUST STEEL
Coach Lukas Number 2. This son of Triple Crown winner Justify, was done in by sizzling early fractions in the Derby last time but two starts back he bested Mystik Dan by more than four lengths. He's a very live long shot that should be given serious consideration if more than 15-1 in the wagering.
8 - TUSCAN GOLD
Fits the classic Chad Brown pattern of a freshener (56 days) and a tight work tab (six drills) for his return. Wouldn't be shocked if he shows big improvement on Saturday. Put him in the mix at 17-1 or greater.
9 - IMAGINATION
The only Bob Baffert runner after the scratch of morning-line favorite Muth, this colt has speed and fired a pair of 6-furlong bullets in his final two workouts. Being on or near the lead is always a plus on the tight-turned Pimlico oval but he must be gunned to the front before the first turn for his best chance. Should be given a long look if 10-1 or better.
