Steve Matthews' Saratoga selections for Thursday, July 11
Best bet: L J'S EMMA (4)
Best value: MZ BIG BUCKS (7)
FIRST: Empty Tomb is fresh and takes sizable class drop; takes this with "A" effort. Rocco Strong is another that plunges in price and owns fast back figures; tough opener. Bold Victory could impact if pace meltdown ensues.
SECOND: Freydis the Red consistently logs fast late-pace figures; handles marathon distances. Aspen Grove has been fed a steady diet of graded stakes fields since arriving in the U.S. in spring 2023; dangerous. Be Your Best notched both career wins on Saratoga sod; right in the thick of this.
THIRD: Needed has the speed that's needed to overcome outside slot; big effort on tap. Dreaming of Carli was a much-improved second in last; worth long look. Going for Glory makes third start of form cycle; must consider.
FOURTH: L J's Emma packs a potent late kick in field that's jammed with speed. Shoshana and Lady Milagro are bulletlike from the gate but must avoid front-end duel for best chance. Run for the Hills owns a stalker's style that should play well in likely pace dynamic.
FIFTH: Tomacon is training swiftly for first start since April; breakthrough effort predicted. Stormy's Dreaming would be aided by fast fractions; price will be tempting. Call Bob is speedy and gets favorable cutback to 6 furlongs; very interesting.
SIXTH: Strong State made sustained run when second in debut; more to give. Episode is fleet-footed and hails from top-notch Jose D'Angelo barn; dangerous. My Lady Bae and My Vanilla are newcomers that could be the goods if the money shows.
SEVENTH: Mz Big Bucks projects as the speed of the speed with Kendrick Carmouche aloft. Solib looms the prime beneficiary if top selection hits the wall. Weekend Rags is another that would be aided by pace collapse.
EIGHTH: More Than Glory was compromised by soft splits when a clear-cut second in last; price should be on your side. Elle Est Forte is rested and packs potent late wallop; worth long look. Diamond Status owns speed and makes third start of form cycle; very interesting.
NINTH: Quality Chic had late kick nullified when too close to hot fractions last time; throw deep in ultra-contentious field. Untreated is working swiftly for first start since March '23; more than good enough if ready. Classic Catch is 1-for-1 on Spa loam; must respect.
10TH: Viggiedal visually and numerically impressed when winning debut; more to come. Carmen's Candy Jar lived up to heavy tote support when a professional-looking winner in first start; dangerous. Slang exits determined maiden score in second start; must consider.
11TH: Get It to Matthew should move forward with switch to sod; call in wide-open nightcap. Bourbon Outlaw makes first start with maiden-claiming tag; dangerous. Battlefield Park also drops after sharp placing in last. El Alacran's speed gives him a puncher's chance at a playable price.
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