Gas prices on Long Island dip amid broader economic concerns

Prices at the pump nationally and locally have been trending downward in recent weeks, but industry experts said the reasons behind lower gas prices may signal broader economic concerns.

The average price of regular gas on Long Island hit $2.988 per gallon Thursday, down from $3.024 per gallon a week ago, and notably lower than the $3.464 per gallon price point last year, according to data from AAA.

Nationally, the price per gallon of unleaded regular gas was $3.167 on average Thursday, down from $3.222 a week ago.

Gas prices on Long Island and around the country traditionally hit their peak in mid-April when refiners slow production for maintenance before ramping it up ahead of the summer months, experts with online gas price tracker GasBuddy said. Typically, prices rise by 20 cents to 65 cents a gallon in April or May from seasonally lower prices in January or February. But amid global fears of a recession, overproduction of crude oil overseas and a projected decline in consumer travel due to low consumer confidence this year, low gas prices may be around for a while, according to industry experts.

“In the last week or so we’ve seen increases revert to decreases,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy.

There are some "warning" signs with the broader economy, De Haan said. “It’s generally rare to have low prices amid a strong economy,” De Haan said.

Cash-strapped consumers aren’t the only ones hoping for lower prices.

Higher prices mean retailers are “paying more for that product and we still want to move the same amount," said Kevin Beyer, vice president of government affairs for the Long Island Gasoline Retailers Association, a nonprofit trade association.

“A lot of times our margins get tighter and tighter,” he said.

Here are four things to know about why gas is cheaper.

Do global markets have an impact on gas prices?

Gasoline prices are linked to the price of crude oil, which is used to produce car-ready gasoline.

The price of a barrel of crude oil has been coming down since early April, industry experts said, in part because of efforts by OPEC+  to increase supply.

“The price of crude oil explains about two-thirds or about 60% of the price of gas,” said Chris Lafakis, director of energy and climate economics at Moody’s Analytics.

The price per barrel of crude oil is down more than 26% from April last year, falling from over $84 per barrel to around $62 per barrel Wednesday.

How are tariffs affecting the price of gas?

Given heightened economic uncertainty globally, crude oil prices are “highly susceptible to market moves,” said Robert Sinclair Jr., senior manager of public affairs for AAA Northeast in Garden City.

“With all of the tariffs going into effect ... and with slower economies there’s less demand for oil products,” Sinclair said.

The stock market saw some of its biggest drops since the 2020 pandemic following President Donald Trump's tariff announcement. And while news of a 90-day pause on most tariffs was received well by investors initially, indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average remain down. 

Teddi Kershner, 27, of Melville, who filled her tank at a Mobil gas station in Plainview Thursday afternoon, said she is pleased to see gas prices trend lower but added, “Saving a few dollars on gas is not worth what else is going on in the economy and in the stock market right now.”

How is consumer behavior impacting gas prices?

With consumers still facing higher prices for goods and services, and expectations that tariffs will increase prices further, Lafakis said many on Long Island and around the country are less likely to travel this year.

“People are consuming less gasoline,” he said.

Lafakis said more consumers may be delaying trips, as evidenced by forecasts from companies like Delta Air Lines, which have lowered their earnings projections over concerns of less travel demand this summer, prime time for car travel as well.

Additionally, Lafakis said more customers are getting out of the gas demand cycle entirely.

“The number of electric vehicles on the road has increased as well,” he said. “If you’re using an electric vehicle, you’re not using any gasoline.”

On Long Island, the number of registered electric vehicles grew 39% over the previous year in December to 71,000 EVs, according to Drive Electric Long Island.

Josh Barshak, 54, of Long Beach, said he didn't feel as if the recent drop in gas prices was significant enough.

"I don’t think prices have ever really felt like they came down," said Barshak, who regularly commutes to his job in Melville. "I think it’s still pretty high, and I think people are spending too much money on gasoline to get around.”

When will gas prices go back up?

Experts said given broad uncertainty in the global economy, it isn't clear when prices will go up again, and there is reason to believe prices will remain low throughout the summer. 

“Things are still bad as far as inflation goes,” Sinclair  said. “People are still struggling ... and demand is significantly lower.”

On top of that, he said. OPEC+ producers have announced plans to produce an additional 400,000 barrels of oil per day starting in May, a move that will likely lower prices further. 

“When supply goes up demand goes down," Sinclair said.