It's never too early for Oscar season

The summer movie season is over, and the fall Oscar season hasn't yet begun, but it's never too early to start predicting who'll take the gold.

Some of the big movies coming up don't necessarily seem like Oscar material. "Hugo" (Nov. 23) is directed by Martin Scorsese, but it's a young-adult fantasy, not a favorite genre among Oscar voters. Likewise, there's buzz around Steven Spielberg's "The Adventures of Tintin" (Dec. 23), but Oscar voters are unlikely to embrace a motion-capture cartoon. (Spielberg may have a better chance with "War Horse," due Dec. 28, about a boy who joins World War I to search for his horse.)

One way to pick winners is to look at who's already won. "J. Edgar" (Nov. 9), starring Leonardo DiCaprio as FBI director J. Edgar Hoover, comes from director Clint Eastwood (a best director winner for "Unforgiven" and "Million Dollar Baby") and screenwriter Dustin Lance Black (an Oscar winner for "Milk"). The post-9/11 drama "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" (Dec. 25) stars Sandra Bullock ("The Blind Side") and Tom Hanks ("Philadelphia" and "Forrest Gump"). "We Bought a Zoo" (Dec. 23), directed and co-written by Cameron Crowe ("Almost Famous"), features Matt Damon (who won for co-writing "Good Will Hunting") as a widower who renovates a zoo.

If you had to pick a movie now, it would probably be "The Help." Like last year's Oscar favorite, "The King's Speech," it has a fine cast (Emma Stone, Viola Davis, Bryce Dallas Howard), a crowd-pleasing story and has been a slow-building hit spurred by positive reviews and word of mouth.

Is there a dark horse waiting to surprise us, another "Shakespeare in Love" or "Slumdog Millionaire"? That's a losing guessing game for sure.