HBO rules Emmy nominations: 'Succession,' 'Last of Us,' 'House of the Dragon,' 'White Lotus' get best drama nods

It'll be HBO versus HBO at the 75th annual Primetime Emmy Awards, which announced nominations Wednesday, or at least in the drama category, where the network scored four nods. That's happened before only once, in 1992, when four NBC series were nominated. And, yes, one of these four HBO shows is a favorite to win. (Guesses? "Succession.")

The other three are "The Last of Us," "The White Lotus" and "House of the Dragon."

In comedy, FX/Hulu's first-year "The Bear" scored an expected nod, while the unexpected one went to Freevee's amusing under-the-radar newcomer, "Jury Duty." "Abbott Elementary" — the lone commercial show in the major categories (as usual) — also got another nod, while the final season of "Ted Lasso" was nominated once again.

There was an unprecedented twist in the best actor/drama category, again for "Succession" which landed nominations for Jeremy Strong, Kieran Culkin and Brian Cox. Meanwhile, Bob Odenkirk will get one last chance at the winner's circle for "Better Call Saul," and so will his celebrated series — or at least celebrated by everyone except the Emmys. "Saul," which wrapped last August, has been shut out over its entire six-season run. 

As far as Emmys go, these are the most unusual in years, and for all the wrong reasons. The awards are honoring an industry that has been largely shut down by a writers strike that has lasted over 70 days and which faced another possible walkout by actors at midnight Wednesday. 

The National Academy of Television Arts & Sciences chief Frank Scherma told those who watched the livestream of the nominations that the telecast of the 75th ceremony is "currently planned for Monday, Sept. 18, on Fox." 

But you don't need to know much about the ongoing strife to realize just how awkward that phrase "currently planned" is. Unless the writers strike is resolved by August — which seems unlikely — the telecast will probably be pushed back months, possibly into 2024. In a quick nod to the strike, Scherma — no doubt sincerely — said the Academy hoped for "an equitable and swift resolution" to the walkout. 

Here's a look at the major categories: 

BEST DRAMA SERIES

"Andor" (Disney+)

"Better Call Saul" (AMC)

"House of the Dragon" (HBO/Max)

"Succession" (HBO/Max)

"The Crown" (Netflix)

"The Last of Us" (HBO/Max)

"The White Lotus" (HBO/Max)

"Yellowjackets" (Showtime)

While fans might like to delude themselves that there's a chance for "Saul" or even "Andor'' (which was also great), there is almost zero opportunity. "The Crown'' was nominated for a particularly disappointing season, while "House of the Dragon" was good but far (far) from "Game of Thrones." It seems far-fetched to imagine the hive mind will get behind a show about zombies or another about cannibals. That leaves the favorite, or should we just go ahead and call this a lock? "Succession" — which won for seasons 2 and 3 — will win for its satisfying fourth.

BEST ACTRESS IN A DRAMA SERIES

Sharon Horgan ("Bad Sisters")

Melanie Lynskey ("Yellowjackets")

Elisabeth Moss ("The Handmaid’s Tale")

Bella Ramsey ("The Last of Us")

Keri Russell ("The Diplomat")

Sarah Snook ("Succession")

Snook finally gets recognized, while Moss is back once again, and maybe not for the last time (if or when the Writers Guild of America strike ends, the last "Tale" season could arrive in '24). Horgan was widely expected to be nominated, and Lynskey (a nod last year) too. But they don't seem like favorites. This is between Ramsey, Russell and Snook. Russell was nominated three straight times for her better performance in "The Americans," and never won — not a good sign — which leaves Snook and Ramsey. Advantage Ramsey. 

BEST ACTOR IN A DRAMA SERIES

Jeff Bridges ("The Old Man")

Brian Cox ("Succession") 

Kieran Culkin ("Succession")

Bob Odenkirk ("Better Call Saul")

Pedro Pascal ("The Last of Us")

Jeremy Strong ("Succession")

While three actors from the same series might indicate an advantage for one of those three, that may not necessarily be the case. They might cancel each other out, or voting members might decide that they can't make up their minds, so they go for Bridges instead. The Emmy hive mind does indeed work in mysterious ways, but this shouldn't be mysterious at all. Strong will likely win because he's already won before, and the hive mind likes nothing better than a repeat. But Culkin or Cox should get this.   

BEST COMEDY SERIES

"Abbott Elementary" (ABC)

"Barry" (HBO/Max)

"The Bear" (FX/Hulu)

"Jury Duty" (Freevee)

"The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel" (Prime Video)

"Only Murders in the Building" (Hulu)

"Ted Lasso" (Apple TV+)

"Wednesday" (Netflix)

Emmy voters have now nominated all four seasons of "Barry," but it has never won and the fourth is a long shot, too. That leaves the only two other realistic contenders here. "The Bear'' is perhaps TV's hottest show of the moment, or buzziest, and won big at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. While it may be in the wrong category (please, this is a drama), buzz does matter to the Emmy hive mind. Then there's "Ted Lasso." Emmy likes nothing better than a repeat winner, and "Lasso" has already won for its first and second seasons. The third and final season should be a charm too. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY SERIES

Christina Applegate ("Dead to Me")

Rachel Brosnahan ("The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel")

Quinta Brunson ("Abbott Elementary")

Natasha Lyonne ("Poker Face")

Jenna Ortega ("Wednesday")

Brosnahan — who won this once (2018) and has been a regular nominee ever since — would probably be a long shot by this point if a few others here weren't longer. Ortega made an innocent crack to the media about how she could write her own dialogue, which did not sit well with the actual writers themselves (although they're on strike, WGA members could still vote). As good as Applegate was, does anybody even remember "Dead to Me"? Lyonne's "Poker Face" was snubbed in the best comedy category, and since she is "Poker Face," that bodes ill. That leaves the favorite, Brunson.

BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY SERIES

Bill Hader ("Barry")

Martin Short ("Only Murders in the Building")

Jason Segel ("Shrinking")

Jason Sudeikis ("Ted Lasso")

Jeremy Allen White ("The Bear")

Where's Selena Gomez or Steve Martin — both, of course, from "OMITB" and both overlooked? Welcome to the kooky Emmys. Anyway, this little battle is between multiple winner Sudeikis and newcomer White. Won't we all be surprised if Hader walks away with this again? In fact, very because this one goes to White. 

BEST LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES

"Beef" (Netflix)

"Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story" (Netflix)

"Daisy Jones & the Six" (Prime Video)

"Fleishman Is in Trouble" (FX/Hulu)

"Obi-Wan Kenobi" (Disney+)

The Emmy handicappers from Goldderby.com — who are usually quite good — predicted each one of these nominees, except one. Can you guess which one they did not? "Obi-Wan" is your answer, and a considerable surprise too, also unwelcome because the handicappers expected either serial killer drama "Black Bird" or NatGeo's "A Small Light" (about the Dutch woman who hid Anne Frank). "Dahmer" may be the favorite to win, but it won't. "Daisy Jones" (which started off weak, but got better and better) will win this and win big elsewhere too. 

BEST ACTRESS IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Lizzy Caplan ("Fleishman Is in Trouble")

Jessica Chastain ("George & Tammy")

Dominique Fishback ("Swarm")

Kathryn Hahn ("Tiny Beautiful Things")

Riley Keough ("Daisy Jones & the Six")

Ali Wong ("Beef")

Could this be the toughest category of the 75th, consequently the hardest to call? Could be. There are certainly no surprises here, but Keogh does feel like the favorite, if only because her performance involved a whole lot more than acting (singing, performing and whatever else actors who play rock stars do). 

BEST ACTOR IN A LIMITED OR ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR TV MOVIE

Taron Egerton ("Black Bird")

Kumail Nanjiani ("Welcome to Chippendales")

Evan Peters ("Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story")

Daniel Radcliffe ("Weird: The Al Yankovic Story")

Michael Shannon ("George & Tammy")

Steven Yeun ("Beef")

"Dahmer" remains a huge hit for Netflix, and beyond the horrifying and macabre reasons for that allure, there was Peters — a regular player in Ryan Murphy's excellent repertory company who knows what the boss wants and how to deliver it. But I do like Shannon's chances here. He did what Shannon always does so well — a tight, memorable performance. Same with Chastain, so she's a dark horse too.