Census figures show United States population to grow slower, more diverse

The nation's population is estimated to reach a high of nearly 370 million in 2080, then drop to 366 million by 2100 — a slower pace of growth than previously projected even as the country's residents become more racially and ethnically diverse, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released publicly Thursday.

"The U.S. has experienced notable shifts in the components of population change over the last five years," Sandra Johnson, a bureau demographer, said in a statement. She said some of these shifts, such as increases in mortality caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, were expected to be "short-term, while others, including the declines in fertility that have persisted for decades, are likely to continue into the future."

The new projections incorporated additional data since the bureau last did projections in 2017. The new information on births, deaths and international migration "resulted in a slower pace of population growth through 2060 than was previously projected," Johnson said.

Nationally, the Census Bureau said "immigration is projected to become the largest contributor to population." 

Because the bureau released projections only at the national level, Jan Vink, a researcher with Cornell University's Program on Applied Demographics, said it was "very hard to draw any conclusions" at the state level.

Nevertheless, Vink said the birth and international migration projections may prove significant for New York State. Compared with the bureau's 2017 projections, Vink said, "they're now projecting a lot less births and less net international migration." He noted that births in New York "have been going down over the last decade. This is now confirming that, and they're now projecting that other states will see a similar trend. New York might stabilize before other states do."

For New York, Vink said domestic migration, rather than international migration, is "the biggest driver of population change." Census data released last month showed that New York faced a net loss of 244,000 people who moved to other states between 2021 and 2022.

The bureau also projected the nation's population totals by race and ethnicity. For example, the nation's non-Hispanic white population was 58.9% in 2022, while minorities comprised 41.1%. By 2060, the census data projected the nation's non-Hispanic white population would drop to 44.9%, while minorities surge to 55.1%.

Minority children under 18 already were the majority in 2022, at 51.2%, according to the data, compared with non-Hispanic white children, at 48.8%. By 2060, minority children are projected to comprise 63.7% of children, whereas non-Hispanic white children would comprise 36.3%. 

Vink noted that already "the younger population in New York is much more diverse than the older population. That trend will continue."

Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University's National Center for Suburban Studies, said in an email: "We've already seen how these demographic shifts have affected everything from politics and economics to housing and transportation. And it is profound … The key for Long Island is embracing this diversity and encouraging newcomers to play a bigger role in our life, as well as shedding stereotypes that immigrants are ‘freeloaders’ or just cut lawns and clean tables, when they are an increasing number of our doctors, researchers and other professionals, making a major contribution to our society."

Census projections showed the link between immigration and population growth.

In the bureau's "low-immigration" projection, the nation's population would peak at around 346 million in 2043 and decline thereafter, dropping to 319 million in 2100. The nation's estimated population in 2022 was nearly 333.3 million. And on the bureau's "population clock," the nation's projected population for Nov. 7, 2023, was 335.7 million.

Under the "high-immigration" scenario, the nation's population was projected to reach 435 million in 2100. But the bureau said the middle series was "the mostly likely outcome," where the population was projected to peak at 370 million in 2080 and then drop down to 366 million by 2100, a 9.7% increase from the nation's estimated population in 2022.

The bureau also projected that the nation's median age would continue to rise. In 2022, the median age for the total population was 38.9. In 2100, this is projected to increase to 47.9 in the middle series, 46.5 in the high-immigration scenario, 49.2 in the low-immigration scenario, and 53.6 in the zero-immigration scenario.