Dems, GOP lining up potential candidates if Santos leaves his seat

ALBANY — Republicans and Democrats are quietly working to identify and prepare candidates for a special election for the 3rd Congressional District should Rep. George Santos resign or be removed from Congress, according to members of both parties.

Santos (R-Nassau/Queens) has acknowledged that he fabricated much of his resume, including his education and work history, but has refused to quit. The nonprofit Campaign Legal Center has filed a complaint with the Federal Election Commission against him, and Santos faces additional state and federal investigations related to campaign committees tied to him. But those are still in fledgling stages.

Should a special election ultimately be necessary, both sides agree it would be expensive and draw nationwide interest and money.

For Republicans, holding the seat is important for the slim GOP majority in the House of Representatives, and Speaker Kevin McCarthy of California would be expected to devote a substantial amount of cash and resources from the GOP congressional campaign committee to a special election.

Several potential Republican candidates are the subject of private talks and polling, party members say. Among them are state Sen. Jack Martins; Alison Esposito, the former GOP nominee for lieutenant governor; and Daniel Serota, the Brookville mayor and police commissioner.

On the Democratic side, the potential candidates include Tom Suozzi, who had held the congressional seat since 2017 until he unsuccessfully ran for the Democratic nomination for governor last year; Robert Zimmerman, who narrowly lost in November to Santos; and Assemb. Daniel Rosenthal, who since 2017 has represented the parts of Queens that are included in the 3rd Congressional District.

Martins has served the heart of the 3rd Congressional District while in the State Senate from 2011 to 2016 and again in his return to the seat this year after November’s election. The former Mineola mayor has been interested in Congress in the past and was defeated in a 2008 run.

Esposito is a former New York Police Department lieutenant and the first openly gay candidate for lieutenant governor. She drew strong support as a running mate to former Rep. Lee Zeldin of Shirley, who was the GOP nominee for governor last year.

Esposito already has met with key Republicans in Washington, D.C., and on Long Island, said a former Zeldin-Esposito official who asked not to be identified. Although Esposito lives outside the district, the law doesn’t require residency in the congressional district to run.

Martins told Newsday he would not seek the congressional seat if it opens. “I’m going to be here in the State Senate,” he said. “That’s the race I ran for.”

Esposito didn’t return requests for comment.

Serota was one of the leaders of local officials who last year helped derail Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s plan to expand “accessory dwelling units,” which was strongly opposed on Long Island. Accessory dwelling units allow the building of multifamily housing in neighborhoods long restricted to single-family dwellings.

Serota said he knows Republicans have included him in the mix but declined to comment until a vacancy exists.

Whoever the Republicans choose, the party will have the added chore of dealing with the political damage caused by Santos, a conservative Republican endorsed by the party.

Veteran Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf said that when seats are vacated by scandals, voters traditionally “blame the party for the embarrassment, rather than view candidates individually.”

For Democrats, the race would be a major test of new House Minority Leader Hakeem Jefferies of Brooklyn. He, too, would be expected to expend significant resources to retake the seat.

A Democratic win would “make Hakeem Jeffries an even bigger player because his people will be all over it,” Sheinkopf said. “It will be the first win for which he can take credit.”

Democrats under consideration include Zimmerman, Suozzi, Rosenthal, Nassau County Legis. Joshua Lafazan, who finished third in the Democratic primary for the seat in August, and Suffolk County Deputy County Executive Jon Kaiman, who came in second in the primary.

“Certainly, I’m interested,” Kaiman said, noting that he has reached out to Jeffries and Nassau County Democratic Chairman Jay Jacobs.

Zimmerman and Suozzi didn’t return requests for comment. Rosenthal declined to comment, and Lafazan said through his county spokeswoman that he is planning to run for reelection to the county legislature.

“I’ve been hearing that Suozzi is interested in coming back,” said former Sen. Phil Boyle, a Suffolk County Republican. “In which case, seeing that as being maybe a done deal, I don’t know who would beat him.”

But Boyle noted a strong candidate supported by Nassau County Republican Chairman Joe Cairo might not emerge until late in the process of submitting petitions to run. “Cairo holds these things close to the vest,” Boyle said.

“We’ll be ready with a qualified, well-credentialed candidate,” said Mike Deery, a spokesman for Cairo and the Nassau County Republican Committee. “But it’s speculative at this point … we’re not ready to discuss it until an actual vacancy exists.”

Democrats confirm many candidates are interested in the seat.

“There are lots of people coming out of the woodwork,” said Jacobs, state and Nassau County Democratic chairman. “Of course, you have Robert Zimmerman, Joshua Lafazan and Jon Kaiman that have indicated interest. You have Tom Suozzi in the background; we don’t know his level of interest, but he’s been talked about.”

Political analysts say the successful candidate would likely have to be a centrist, neither a Trump Republican nor a socialist Democrat. The enrollment shows there are 229,188 enrolled Democrats and 163,426 Republicans, but there are also 158,868 voters not enrolled in a party.

State records show 79% of the district’s voters are in Nassau and just under 21% in Queens.

“It’s a weird district,” said Steven Greenberg of the Siena College Research Institute poll. “It’s a district some would assume would be a safe Democratic seat, but it’s not. It’s a leaning-Democratic seat. To win, Democrats and Republicans are going to have to appeal to the middle.”

By Michael Gormley

michael.gormley@newsday.com@GormleyAlbany

Michael Gormley has worked for Newsday since 2013, covering state government, politics and issues. He has covered Albany since 2001.