Newsday/Siena poll: Trump leads Harris on LI, but she makes gains statewide 

Long Islanders favor Republican Donald Trump in the presidential race, but Vice President Kamala Harris has given Democrats a significant boost statewide since replacing President Joe Biden on the ticket, according to new polls.

In a Newsday/Siena College survey of 507 likely voters on the Island, Trump leads Harris 50% to 44%. There is a noticeable split by county: Nassau County residents give Harris a 3-percentage point lead while Suffolk gives Trump a 14-point edge.

In a statewide poll, Harris quickly has pulled in support where Biden had been lagging, Siena pollster Don Levy said. Whereas Biden led Trump by 8 points statewide in June, Harris has jumped to a 14-point lead (53%-39%) in a Siena poll conducted separately, but simultaneously with the Island poll.

The statewide change is highlighted among suburban voters, which combines Long Island and the Hudson Valley: In June, Trump had a 13-point lead over Biden. Now, Harris and Trump are dead even at 47%.

The Newsday/Siena poll also asked Long Islanders their views on some key issues, finding they strongly support approving a statewide "equal rights amendment," banning smartphones in schools and amending a law that capped state and local tax deductions on federal tax returns.

The poll also found a widening split — by county — over a casino proposed for the former Nassau Coliseum: Nassau residents oppose a casino by 7 percentage points, while their Suffolk neighbors support it by 22 points.

The survey of 507 likely voters in Nassau and Suffolk counties was conducted July 28 to Aug. 1. The margin of error is 6.1 percentage points, meaning the answers to any one question could vary higher or lower by that amount.

Long Island presidential

Nassau and Suffolk counties are running more in favor of Republicans than New York state as a whole.

Trump has a 6-point lead over Harris in a head-to-head match. When Siena asked about minor-party candidates, the margin remained the same.

Among the others, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 7% support; Jill Stein of the Green Party, 2%; and Libertarian Chase Oliver, 1%.

By gender, Long Island men favored Trump over Harris, 58%-36%. Women favored Harris, 53%-43%.

By race, whites favored Trump, 53%-41%. All others favored Harris, 59%-39%.

Ira Calderon, 63, said he supports the Republican on the issues of the economy and the border.

"Personalities aside, [Trump’s] policies blow away the policies of the Democrats," said Calderon, a Melville independent who generally supports Republicans.

Harris supporters have their list of issues, too.

"Human rights, women’s rights, climate change, gun safety. And abortion rights — that’s the top one," said Barbara Donato, 51, a Bohemia Democrat. "Harris is going to reinstate abortion rights so everyone can get safe abortions."

Statewide presidential

In earlier Siena polls, Biden’s lead over Trump in New York had steadily declined to the point where Republicans believed they could be within striking distance of winning the state for the first time in decades.

The entry of Harris has changed the momentum, Levy said.

"It jumps out at you, for sure," Levy told Newsday. "For months, you were seeing Biden with a 12-point lead [statewide], then falling to 10 points to 8 points . . . But clearly it is a significant boost for the Democrats to go from 8 to 14."

Levy said Trump’s support stayed relatively flat. The difference in margin is because Harris is pulling back support "from voters who had strayed from Biden."

"The voter who voted for Biden before but was now saying I don’t know or I want someone else" is voicing support for Harris, the pollster said.

The shift is best seen among Democratic voters and independents, Black people and women.

In June, Biden had the support of 75% of Democrats surveyed. Now, Harris has the support of 86%.

Among independents, Trump led Biden by 17 points. He’s still ahead, but his margin over Harris is 7 points.

Republican votes haven’t changed much; support for Trump runs in the mid- to high-80s.

Among women, whereas 51% in New York state supported Biden in June, 64% now say they support Harris.

Harris is favored by 81% of Black voters; Biden’s support was down to 59% in the previous Siena survey.

Issues

Nassau residents continue to oppose the idea of a casino at the old Nassau Coliseum: 51% opposed, 44% favor. The margin is unchanged from a November survey.

In contrast, favor among Suffolk residents grew from a modest 6 points last fall to 22.

"I believe New York is 40 years behind the times and we should have had casinos out here and in New York City," said Sean Marsar, 82, a Bethpage Republican. "It's the future. It's the revenue . . . And it'll be a place for my wife to go, now and then."

Also, Long Islanders, by 65% to 26%, strongly favor a proposed "equal rights amendment" on the New York ballot this fall. Democrats said it would enshrine abortion rights and LGBT protections in the state constitution. Republicans have said it is unnecessary and could allow transgender females to compete in women’s athletics.

Long Islanders favor banning students from having smartphones in classrooms, 59% to 33%

Donato, a former high school and now elementary teacher, supports a ban in the classroom, but said students should have access at, say, lunch time.

"I really saw the change" when schools began allowing smartphones, she said, adding: "From the teachers’ point of view, I love the ban."

Islanders also want some sort of restoration of the ability to deduct state and local taxes from federal taxes: 46% said all should be deductible, the way it was before Trump enacted a tax overhaul as president. Thirty-eight percent said the current deduction limit should be doubled to $20,000, and 12% said the current $10,000 limit should be kept.

On another issue, Gov. Kathy Hochul delayed the launch of "congestion pricing," a proposal to hike tolls for driving into Manhattan by as much as $15 for certain areas and times to encourage mass transit use. About 70% of Islanders said it should be scrapped permanently, while 21% should it should be implemented.

Other elected officials

In her reelection bid, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has a huge statewide lead — 56% to 33% — over Republican challenger Mike Sapraicone. On the Island, the margin is smaller: 49%-43% in favor of Gillibrand.

Nassau voters had a slightly negative view of Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman: 27% favorable, 29% unfavorable. Most (58%) said they didn't know Blakeman or had no opinion. Yet by a 48%-39% tally, they said the county was on the right track.

In contrast, Suffolk voters scored County Executive Edward P. Romaine better: 23% favorable, 15% unfavorable, 62% don't know/no opinion. Yet by a 44%-41% mark, more voters said the county was on the wrong track.

By Yancey Roy

yancey.roy@newsday.com@yanceyroy