Seven competitive New York State races could sway balance in House

WASHINGTON — The outcome of next week's election in seven New York congressional districts could determine which party controls the U.S. House for the next two years and will have long-lasting ramifications on taxes, immigration and health care.

The balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives has toggled back and forth between Republicans and Democrats as each party has won slim majorities during the past two sessions of Congress, and political experts expect a narrow difference again this time.

Republicans now hold 220 seats and Democrats 212 seats, with three vacancies. That means that if all Democrats vote no, Republicans can lose only three of their members' votes if they want to pass a bill or resolution.

In the Senate, the Democratic caucus now has 51 members to the Republicans’ 49, but after retirements, Democrats face a tougher job keeping the majority.

No state other than California has as many House seats in play as New York, and spending for ads and turnout in New York races ranks among the most in the country:  $86.4 million by outside groups and  $48.6 million by candidates, who on Sept. 30 had  $24.5 million left to spend.

In the New York races, both Republicans and Democrats are campaigning as moderates and accuse their opponents of being on the extreme end of their party.

Top Republican issues include inflation, border security and crime. Top Democratic issues include abortion, health care and protecting democracy. Both sides back a repeal of the $10,000 cap on deductions of state and local government taxes, known as SALT.

How New Yorkers vote in those seven districts — three on Long Island, two in the Hudson Valley and two upstate — will be key to whether Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-Brooklyn) becomes House Speaker or remains the minority leader.

"Control of Congress runs through New York state, and particularly through Long Island. There's no question about that," said political analyst Lawrence Levy, executive dean of Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies.

"Voters who had grown accustomed and maybe even become cynical about their votes not mattering because it was a blue state led by one party now are casting votes that can determine the very future of the country," Levy said.

Here is a rundown of those seven races by region.

Long Island

The rematch between first-term Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-Island Park) and Democrat Laura Gillen of Rockville Centre, a former Hempstead Town supervisor, in the 4th District in central and southern Nassau County ranks as one of the most watched races in the country.

In 2022, former NYPD officer D’Esposito, 42, edged Gillen, 55, an attorney, in a red wave in a usually blue district. This year, the Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.

Through the end of September, outside groups spent $13 million to help D'Esposito and $5.8 million to boost Gillen, according to OpenSecrets, which tracks political money.

In the 1st District in Suffolk County, freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-Amityville), 46, faces a tough challenge from Democrat John Avlon, 51, a former CNN commentator who has a home in Sag Harbor. The race is rated a likely victory for LaLota.

Avlon has been backed by $2.7 million and LaLota  $321,789 from outside groups.

Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove), 62, is seeking a full term after winning back the 3rd District seat in a special election in February. He stepped down after three terms in 2022 to unsuccessfully run for governor. Challenging him is Mike LiPetri, 34, of Farmingdale, who served a term as a state assemblyman and now works as a lobbyist.

The race is rated a likely Suozzi win. Outside groups have shown little interest in it.

Hudson Valley

Rep. Mike Lawler (R-Pearl River), 38, upset the chair of the House Democrats’ campaign committee in 2022 by a narrow margin for his first term in a redrawn 17th District and faces Mondaire Jones, 37, of Sleepy Hollow, who served a term in the previous form of the district.

Lawler supports GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, but the Bipartisan Index ranked him one of the most bipartisan members of the House this year. Jones supported the Green New Deal, Medicare for All and defunding the police.

The New York Times reported that in college Lawler wore blackface as part of a Michael Jackson costume. He apologized for it. Jones, who is Black, called it "deeply offensive."

The 17th District includes Rockland and Putnam counties, northern Westchester County and portions of southern Dutchess County.

The Cook Political Report on Friday switched its rating for Lawler from toss-up to lean Republican.

Outside groups have backed Lawler with  $12.3 million and Jones with  $8.2 million.

First-term Rep. Pat Ryan (D-Gardiner), 42, an Iraq War veteran and former Ulster County executive, is defending his seat in the 18th District from Republican Alison Esposito, 49, of Goshen, a former NYPD officer and running mate of Lee Zeldin in his unsuccessful run for governor in 2022.

Ryan has run ads saying he has demanded that President Joe Biden take action on the border and accused Esposito of walking lockstep with Trump.

Esposito has tried to tie Ryan to indicted New York City Mayor Eric Adams, and accused Ryan of turning Ulster County into "a sanctuary for illegal aliens."

The race leans Democratic, according to Cook’s ratings. The 18th District covers Orange County, most of Dutchess County and southern and central Ulster County.

Outside groups have spent  $3 million to boost Ryan and  $4.8 million for Esposito.

Upstate

In a rematch of the 2022 race in the 19th District, Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-Red Hook), 49, a former Dutchess County executive and unsuccessful candidate for New York governor, is facing Democrat Josh Riley, of Ithaca, a lawyer who has served as an aide in Congress.

Molinaro has called Riley a "D.C. insider," and Riley has called Molinaro, who has held public office since he was 19, a "corrupt career politician," the Albany Times-Union reported.

The 19th District lies partially in the northernmost region of the metropolitan area and south of Albany. The race is rated as a toss-up.

Molinaro has been backed by  $12.5 million and Riley by  $13 million from outside groups.

Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams (R-Sennett), 57, is seeking reelection against Democrat John Mannion, 56, of Geddes, a former biology teacher in the West Genesee Central School District who is serving his second term in the New York State Senate.

Williams, who moved to New York in 2019, said in his 2022 campaign that he has sharp conservative views and is a staunch supporter of Trump.

Mannion flipped a seat that had been held by Republicans for 50 years but has voted often with Republicans, making him one of the most moderate Democrats in the State Senate.

The 22nd Congressional District spans all of Onondaga and Madison counties and parts of Cayuga, Cortland and Oneida counties. The district includes the cities of Syracuse, Utica, Auburn and Cortland.

The Cook Political Report rates the race as leaning toward a Democratic victory. Outside groups have spent  $6.6 million to support Williams and  $4.2 million for Mannion.

In all these competitive races, Levy said, one of the biggest factors will be how the top of the ticket performs.

"If Kamala Harris outperforms Joe Biden's 2020 vote in a particular district, it tells me the Democrat is more likely to win," he said. "By the same token, if Trump is closer to his 2016 performance than he did in 2020, the Republican candidate is going to have an edge."