Republican presidential debate: What to watch for

WASHINGTON — Eight years ago Donald Trump, then an insurgent, joined nine other Republican presidential hopefuls on a debate stage, taking direct jabs at his opponents for nearly two hours as he tried to break through the crowded field of candidates.

This year, Trump is the front-runner in the crowded field of Republican candidates seeking the presidency in 2024, and he's indicated he will skip the first debate of the GOP primary season Wednesday night. The New York Times reported that Trump instead would sit for an online interview with former Fox News Host Tucker Carlson, while The Washington Post reported Saturday night that Trump would post a prerecorded interview with Carlson. A Trump spokesman told the Post the campaign could not "confirm or deny" the report.

Whether or not Trump is on the debate stage in Milwaukee, political analysts and other candidates say he will be very much a part of the event as the other candidates grapple with how to respond to Trump's legal problems, including four pending criminal cases — in New York City, Florida, Washington, D.C. and Georgia.

Trump has been leading the field by double-digit margins in most polls, but political strategists note the former president’s legal troubles create an opening for opponents to attack his electability in the November 2024 general election.

“Eight years ago, it was new and uncharted territory for everybody,” Michael Dawidziak, a Republican campaign strategist based in Bohemia, said of Trump.

“Trump was the big media star … he was able to act in ways that would have been unacceptable in previous debates," said Dawidziak, who worked on the campaign of former president George H.W. Bush. "Now we’re back in uncharted territory, because he’s the ex-president, is under indictment in four different cases … Back then, people didn’t really know how to answer him or take him on in a debate situation. This time, there will be strategy.”

As of Friday, eight of the 14 declared Republican candidates had qualified for the Republican National Committee debate on Wednesday, which will air on the Fox News Channel. They are: Trump; former Vice President Mike Pence; Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina; former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley; businessman Vivek Ramaswamy; former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Here are five things to watch for:

How will the candidates address Trump?

The debate’s moderators already have said the candidates will be asked about Trump’s indictments.

Fox News anchor Martha McCallum, who will co-moderate the debate with Brett Baier, told Vanity Fair, it will “absolutely be incumbent” for the candidates to address the criminal allegations against Trump, including federal charges that he conspired to overturn the 2020 election through a campaign of misinformation.

McCallum said voters “need to hear how they [candidates] see it, and the option that they’re trying to provide. It’s very tricky territory for these candidates. They know that well. It’s kind of a minefield.”

Christopher Malone, a political-science professor and associate provost at Farmingdale State College, said “you’ve got a couple of different lanes that people are going to try to run in. You’ve got Chris Christie, who is definitely the one out there criticizing Trump, saying the party won’t win if Trump is the nominee. You have Mike Pence, who is starting to move in that direction … you will see if he tries to offer more daylight between him and Trump.”

Will there be a new No. 2?

DeSantis consistently has polled second to Trump, even before officially entering the race in May, but over the past month his campaign has faced setbacks. He's laid off a third of his campaign staff due to financial concerns, and replaced his campaign manager amid reports of unease among campaign donors.

Recent polls point to fading support for DeSantis, and strong performances in the debate could help the other candidates gain ground, Dawidziak said.

“It’s a long war of attrition, and the front-runners are not always who end up the nominee,” Dawidziak said.

DeSantis is polling with an average of 14.8% support, according to an analysis of polls conducted by the poll tracking website Real Clear Politics. Trump has an average of 55% support, according to the website.

Ramaswamy is ranked third, according to Real Clear Politics, which shows him polling with an average of 6.7% support. But a poll released Aug. 10 by Cygnal, a Republican polling firm that focuses on online polling, found 11% of Republicans surveyed favored Ramaswamy compared with 10% for DeSantis. Trump led the poll with 53% support.

An Emerson College poll released last Tuesday showed Christie taking over the second-place slot from DeSantis among New Hampshire voters. The poll showed Christie had the support of 9% of Republican voters polled, compared with DeSantis’ 8%. Trump led the poll with the support of 49% of respondents.

“This is the first time we have seen DeSantis drop out of second place in our polling, and fall back into the pack of candidates,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Scott also has generated recent buzz among Republican donors who have soured on DeSantis. Scott headlined a fundraiser in East Hampton earlier this month, and last month huddled with a number of top-tier GOP donors in Aspen. Last week, in the run-up to Wednesday's debate, Scott's campaign made a $6 million national advertising buy.

Where do the candidates stand on the war in Ukraine?

The war has emerged as a divisive issue among elected Republicans. The ultraconservative House Freedom Caucus has called for a tapering of U.S. support for Ukraine, while longtime GOP leaders such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell want continued financial aid for Ukraine in its war with Russia.

The White House last week asked Congress to approve $24 billion more in funding for Ukraine and for other “international needs” such as countering China. The request is expected to generate a battle among congressional Republicans when they return to Capitol Hill in September from the summer recess.

“The elephant in the room will be Ukraine and who is willing to balance supporting Ukraine while also bashing Biden’s blank check attitude toward that conflict,” said Rina Shah, a Republican political strategist based in Washington, D.C.

DeSantis in March faced blowback from Republican leaders and big donors after he described the war in Ukraine as a “territorial dispute.” DeSantis backtracked on his remarks, but the episode underscored the split in the party about the Ukraine war.

Whose message will breakthrough with moderates?

Republican strategists say candidates hoping to gain on Trump must appeal to moderates and undecided primary voters who are looking for an alternative to Trump.

“The people who make the decision about who the president is going to be are moderates and independent voters. Where they go, there goes the presidency,” Dawidziak said. “I want to hear and see a candidate who can be acceptable to the more extreme elements, but win over the moderates and independents.”

Most Republicans tuning into the debate will want to hear the candidates’ ideas about bread-and-butter issues, Shah said.

“Many Republicans, particularly younger ones … will be looking forward to hearing about how Republican candidates would address the cost-of-living crisis,” she said. “They want to hear about a plan to not only further cool inflation but to address housing costs as well as talk on how to make America competitive as compared to China.”

Will the field narrow?

Not making the Aug. 23 debate stage won't prevent a candidate from qualifying for the second GOP primary debate scheduled for Sept. 27, but it may make some candidates reconsider staying in the race, said Malone.

“It’s not as if it will count them out, but it certainly doesn't help when they're not seen as top tier candidates,” Malone said.

The RNC has increased the requirements for the second debate, with candidates needing at least 50,000 individual donors to their campaigns. They also must show at least two major polls in which they poll at 3% or higher, according to the news site Politico.

Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, who said he has met the fundraising threshold for Wednesday's debate but not the polling requirements, told an audience at the Iowa State Fair last week he likely would drop out of the race if he doesn't make the debate Wednesday.

“If you can’t meet the minimum thresholds, you shouldn’t be trying to take time and volume away from people that do,” Suarez said. “I don’t think candidates should just sort of linger around if they don’t have a credible path.”

By Laura Figueroa Hernandez

laura.figueroa@newsday.com@Laura_Figueroa

Laura Figueroa Hernandez is the White House correspondent and previously covered New York City politics and government. She joined Newsday in 2012 after covering state and local politics for The Miami Herald.